William Contreras Was the Least Accurate Throwing Catcher in Baseball This Year

It was, all in all, a great year for William Contreras. He bashed the ball. He sustained enough of his 2023 gains as a pitch framer to be a fine defensive catcher, overall. He was the heart and soul of a division-winning team, and he stepped up in an especially crucial way when Christian Yelich went down for the year in July, batting .278/.388/.556 from the All-Star break through the end of August. He was a down-ballot MVP candidate, finishing fifth in the voting.

All year, though, he struggled with the running game.

I tackled this topic in some depth in late April, looking especially at the impact of Contreras's preference to throw overhand, in a situation in which most players use a lower arm slot to get the ball off quicker. As the year went on, he did make a slight adjustment on that score, and it showed up in his exchange time: he was above average (18th of 66 qualifying catchers) in the time it took to release the ball after it reached his mitt.

Contreras's raw arm strength remains below-average, though: he was 41st of 66 in average velocity when trying to catch baserunners. The news gets worse, though. Statcast offers fine-grained data on the contributing factors to outs or steals, including apportioning the credit and blame for a play's outcome to the catcher's throw strength, their exchange time... and their accuracy. Contreras was one of just three catchers whose inaccuracy cost their teams three runs on steal attempts in 2024, along with Pedro Páges of the Cardinals and Austin Wells of the Yankees.

Contreras catches with one knee down even in potential steal situations, which is ok. Most catchers do some version of it, these days. However, the way he launches himself creates some systematic inaccuracies. Here's one ball on which he tried to come up out of the kneeling position and throw from his feet, but couldn't get the throw down enough.

That throw is simply rushed. He was too slow getting out of the crouch; he was indecisive. Often, he would avoid that trap by throwing from his knees. When he did so, though, that tendency to throw over the top got him into trouble. He often pulled the ball toward the third-base side, and sometimes bounced it, leaving his teammates with no chance to both corral the ball and make a tag on time.

The three-quarter catcher gets more air under that ball, and it carries right to the bag. Contreras got on top of it too much, though, and the ball didn't even have time to tail.

Even when he got fully upright and into a throw, though, his mechanics were often a bit messy.

An emotional player, Contreras seems to overheat a bit when caught off-guard by a steal attempt. He tried to throw the ball above about 110 miles per hour. It actually was one of his hardest throws of the year, but the ball got away from him. It was all effort and no precision.

Contreras will bear a heavy workload again in 2025. He'll be no less essential a part of the lineup, and the team certainly isn't any deeper at catcher than they have been—unless and until Jeferson Quero is ready to join the parent club. He was so good in 2024 that this remark sounds cruel, but they need him to be slightly better still. It will help if he avoids overthrowing, and it will help if he slightly alters the slot from which he fires. It's unlikely Contreras will ever be a plus run-stopper, but he can at least give his middle infielders better chances to help him. There was minor progress on that later in the year, and indeed, the dazzling Brewers defenders made plays on the other end when Contreras put the ball just a bit closer. 

The stolen-base renaissance has not been a passing fad; it will continue. Contreras has to tighten this up as best he can, and the Brewers will take care of the rest by doing the most important job when it comes to stopping opponents from stealing bases: keeping them off of them in the first place.