Rowdy Tellez Has Seen Enough

This year, almost no one in MLB has swung the bat less often than Rowdy Tellez. The only hitter who would qualify for the batting title (if the season ended today) who has a lower Swing % than he does is Juan Soto. Tellez chases the first pitch of an at-bat only about once every two games. He's been a patient hitter for as long as he's been a Brewer, but this is a new level.

One reason for the change might have been a desire to see how pitchers are adjusting to him and what new plans he could make to counter them. Another (a very common, if often misunderstood, one) could have been that his swing was not feeling right. Sometimes, hitters who appear to be getting more patient are really only making up for a loss of bat speed or a nagging injury. They're not swinging because they don't expect the same rewards when they do as would be normal. 

Indeed, Tellez's batted-ball data for 2023 suggests that he's been less than himself. Pick your favorite way to measure exit velocity, and Tellez's has dropped this year.

• Average Exit Velocity: 88.7 miles per hour, down from 91.1 in 2022
• Hard Hit Rate (Percentage of batted balls that topped 95 MPH): 40.6 percent, down from 46.0
• Maximum Exit Velo: 113.0 MPH, down from 116.3

As we've noted, though, that last metric is already rising, thanks to those two laser-like singles yesterday. That's one sign that he's getting back into the swing of things. Here's another: his swing rate has skyrocketed here in June. In his entire career, the two months in which Tellez swung least often were April and May 2023. He'd never swung at fewer than 40 percent of total pitches in a month before this year, and both of those months were right around 35 percent. 

The sample is tiny, but in June, he's utterly reversed that. He's swung at 33 of the 62 pitches he's seen, good for 53 percent. While that figure is unlikely to hold over the whole month, if it did, it would be the highest rate of his career. Combine that fact with his recent streak of good contact, and it's not hard to see what's happening here. Tellez has waited out opposing pitchers. He's gotten a good look at what they're doing against him this year. He's now ready to attack.

That shift in gear couldn't be more welcome in the Brewers' lineup, where a dearth of power is the biggest problem they face--even more damaging than their inflated strikeout rate. Tellez can help make rallies cobbled together by others' walks and singles pay off with multiple runs, and having him do so is a vital aspect of the Milwaukee lineup. His threatening presence in a lineup has a tutelary effect on the rest of his teammates, even if it doesn't work in the way or have the magnitude of impact imagined by those who used to espouse the idea of lineup protection so ardently. 

Most excitingly, perhaps, Tellez has put up fine numbers even during this long adjustment period to begin the season. There was a bit of good luck in that, but it also reflected the fact that he's a more well-rounded and intelligent hitter than most fans realize. His strikeout rate is up this year, but that's not because he's suddenly whiffing at a catastrophic rate. It's just the effect of more deep counts, thanks to the patience he showed early.

Now, if he's successfully consolidated a new set of ideas about how pitchers will approach him; is healthy enough to get off his best swing more frequently; and has the warm summer and the lively baseball with which to work, he could become one of the most productive hitters in baseball the rest of the way. Tellez could be the guy who puts the Crew's offense back into gear for the playoff push ahead.