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Coming into the year, many expected Sal Frelick to make the kind of quantum leap that (instead) Brice Turang has made, with gap-to-gap power complementing elite bat-to-ball skills and defense. There was even an expectation of more power production from Frelick than Turang has shown so far, but it hasn’t quite come to fruition, despite the gritty center fielder grinding away for all he’s worth.
That grind may be starting to pay off. Frelick is beginning to square up more balls into the gaps, as well as being an on-base machine, with a .405 OBP in July and a .388 mark in the last 30 days. In that month's worth of action, he has as many walks as he does strikeouts. Has he begun to crack the code?
Learning At The Big-League Level
A lot of this comes down to big-league learning. We’ve seen a little of this with Turang, and it’s something Christian Yelich has referenced in the past. It takes time to discern how your swing works in the major leagues, and to zero in on the pitches against which your swing can do damage. It’s a process that takes time, but Frelick seems to have had a rough idea since coming up. In his short career, it's been obvious that he feels he can attack pitches inside with some mighty hacks, especially in the lower part of the zone. The shortness of his swing actually lends itself to squaring up balls on the upper part of the plate, however, and we’ve seen that play out in July.
He can turn on inside pitches with that short swing and do damage to the pull side, but the quality of his contact has increased exponentially in the last 30 days.
|
Statistic |
To 31st May |
Last 30 Days |
|
Slugging |
.365 |
.519 |
|
Sweet Spot Launch Angle |
16.5 |
25.9 |
|
Average Exit Velocity |
84.5 mph |
87.1 mph |
|
Barrel Rate |
2% |
14.8% |
Frelick’s underlying metrics have gotten significantly stronger, in terms of both elevating the ball and hitting it hard'. That's leading to an increase in extra-base potential. Why? A lot of it has to do with him being more on time to the ball. There haven’t been any real swing changes, although his legs do seem to be working more smoothly throughout, but that’s likely more through confidence than a concerted change.
Another big indicator is how, to all fields, Sal Frelick has raised his line drive rate (almost entirely by reducing his ground ball rate) from 24% to 31%, which is a near-elite number. This may not be entirely good, given that he has a better batting average on ground balls than on flies, but if the end goal is to have that 10-homer power production, then it’s the perfect development for his profile.
To the opposite and center field, the results are a little more polarizing statistically, but I believe Frelick is improving there, as well. He’s actually got lower average exit velocities to both areas, but his hard-hit rates have remained the same or better. It all leads me to believe that it’s a small-sample issue, with some topped balls dragging the average down. Most importantly he’s barreling the ball more often, and that can only be good for Frelick as we move into the second “half” of the season.
Should He Be Leading Off?
Given this increased quality of contact; the absurdly low whiff rates and strikeout rate; and Turang coming back to Earth slightly, I wouldn't be surprised if Frelick ends up leading off more games. For players with over 50 plate appearances in the last 30 days:
Frelick is striking out less than Turang, walking more, and has an on-base percentage over 70 points higher. He may not be quite as efficient on the base paths, but he's still fast and seems to be getting better jumps so far this season. Coming out of the All-Star break, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him setting the table for the Brewers, as they look to extend their division lead over the Cardinals.
What do you think of Frelick's recent performance? Is it a true breakout, or a small sample size fluke? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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