Series Preview: Mariners @ Brewers, 4/5-4/7

One interleague home series bleeds into another, as Minnesota departs and The Mariners come to town. It’s been a worrisome start for the Mariners. A 3-4 record doesn’t mean anything, but a more convincing harbinger for concern might be found in their inability to hit anything offspeed. In their first four games, the M’s struck out an astonishing 45 times to only six walks, all while seeing fewer than 30% fastballs. This isn’t a new problem for Seattle, who were haunted by a high strikeout rate last year. For a team whose plans for success are largely structured around their ostensible ability to get on and get in, this could spell trouble.

The narrative is running quite in the opposite direction for Milwaukee, who seem to have all systems firing to start the season. Christian Yelich is hitting with convincing pop, the bullpen is nails, and Jackson Chourio, who is less than a month past turning 20, can’t stop hitting. If the Crew keeps up anything approximating these vibes, Brewers fans have an exciting six months of ball ahead of them.

Friday, Apr. 5
Freddy Peralta (1-0 1.50 ERA) v. Logan Gilbert (0-0 1.29 ERA)
With Corbin Burnes in Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff recovering from an injury, Peralta is the last remaining vestige of the trio of aces that have defined this era of Brewers baseball. On Opening Day in Citi Field, he carried that torch with gusto, limiting the Mets to one hit: a Starling Marte home run. Had that ball stayed in the park, Peralta’s ERA would still be at zero. That small blemish aside, he punched out an impressive eight batters over six innings. He’ll look to repeat that domination in the first game against Seattle on Friday. 

The Brewers are missing the M’s aces in this series, in Luis Castillo and George Kirby, but Gilbert is a promising arm in his own right. Last year, Gilbert was good for 190 innings, and aside from being durable, he was effective, pitching to a 3.73 ERA. In his first start of the season, he threw seven innings in a no-decision, having given up just one run on four hits. If he sharpens his already elite slider and adds some depth to his splitter, it’s not hard seeing Gilbert ascending into the Cy Young discussion.

Saturday, Apr. 6
DL Hall (0-0 4.50 ERA) vs. Bryce Miller (0-1 7.20 ERA)
The new Brewers lefty, here by way of the deeply polarizing Burnes trade, didn’t exactly light up the world in his Brewers debut last week. He managed a no-decision after four innings, allowing only one run. Given that he allowed six hits and a walk while striking out just one Mets batter, and the glaring 8.30 FIP, it’s a bit lucky more damage wasn’t inflicted. What can be inferred from the 25-year-old’s rotation experiment? Absolutely nothing. The Brewers clearly believe in something special from him, and given what their pitching lab has cobbled together in the past, it makes sense to give lots of wiggle room for development.

Bryce Miller allowed as many hits as Hall did in his first start of the year, but was tagged for four runs in the process. That was a bit of a brutal consequence, considering his WHIP, FIP and ERA+ are all technically better than his counterpart, but such is the wily chaos of baseball. It’s Miller’s second year in the majors, having made it to The Show when Robbie Ray went down with a flexor injury. Miller makes his bones on the back of an almost elite mid-90s fastball. With little else in the mix, if the Crew can clock it, they could start to feast and make it a second consecutive short start.

Sunday, Apr. 7 
Colin Rea (1-0 1.80 ERA) vs. Emerson Hancock (1-0 5.06 ERA)
Rea continues to be a feel-good, bargain story for the Brewers, after a very solid start against the Mets, holding them to one run over five innings with two strikeouts. With only eight swinging strikes over 84 pitches, it’s hard to call the start dominant, but it was effective enough to keep New York at bay and pave the way for a Brewers win. It will be interesting to see if the varied but underwhelming repertoire Rea possesses will continue to earn him relevance in the rotation, or if eventually, opposing teams will catch up. 

It’s 2020 first-round draft pick Emerson Hancock’s sophomore season, but only in the most literal sense of the word. Hancock pitched 12 innings for the Mariners in 2023 before a shoulder strain effectively ended his season. He was serviceable enough in his first start that the M’s were able to notch a victory, thanks to his ability to keep Cleveland from notching an extra-base hit until Tyler Freeman took him deep in the sixth. Hancock is a sturdy control arm, but he doesn’t seem a likely force to dominate Milwaukee if they can play as confidently as they have been so far.

Players To Watch
Julio Rodríguez
It’s an obvious answer, but let’s relish the gift of having two elite-level talents playing the outfield, both of whom are under 25. Seattle’s answer to Jackson Chourio is the more veteran, more advanced Rodríguez. The 6-foot-3 center fielder came up in 2022 and made himself so synonymous with peak excellence that it feels like he’s been around forever. In his first year, he produced 6.2 WAR and took home the Rookie Of The Year Award (notably from vaunted favorite Adley Rutschman, who came in second and would have easily won in most years). In his sophomore campaign, he came in fourth in MVP voting. It’s a chilly start to his year so far, but let’s not mistake that for anything but a sleeping giant waiting to be awoken. 

Cal Raleigh
Affectionately nicknamed Big Dumper, Raleigh has quietly established himself as one of the best slugging catchers in baseball. Last year, Raleigh crushed 30 homers for the Mariners and netted himself some MVP votes in the process. That’s more home runs than Will Smith, Sean Murphy or JT Realmuto--giving credence to the suspicion that elite talent hides well in Seattle. 

Jackson Chourio
I won’t list him as a player to keep an eye on for every series, but how about I keep it going until he’s hitting under .350? For real, though, I can’t advocate enough being as present as possible for the beginning of this career. We’ll be able to tell our kids and grandkids we were there for it. 

Brice Turang
At no point would I have expected Turang to lead the team in hitting, or be on base nearly enough to lead all of MLB in stolen bases (six through four games, as I write this), but here we are. It goes without saying that this pace isn’t going to sustain itself, but if Turang is, in fact, learning to implement his blistering speed to be more productive on the basepaths, that (in tandem with his solid defense) will cement him as a mainstay in the Brewers lineup.

Predictions
The Twins handed the Crew their first loss of the season. I predict the Mariners will deliver them their second, but not their third. The Brewers are playing with a pretty palpable swagger, I say they take two of three.