Shaping Up in Boston? Brewers Attempt Turnaround Against Red Sox

The Brewers punctuated their series with the Marlins with a dazzling start from Freddy Peralta, which would ultimately go to waste in a 1-0 loss. That loss cemented a series loss to a very bad Marlins team, and made for consecutive road series losses. It’s not an ideal trajectory for a team clinging to a 1.5-game lead in their division. The Red Sox have crept up over .500 in a ferocious AL East, and are looking to expand on that lead as they host the Crew at Fenway. Do the Sox have what it takes to jeopardize the Brewers' already fragile division lead, or do the Brewers push them back into the losing column?

PITCHING MATCHUPS
Friday, May 24th
Bryse Wilson (2-1 2.79 ERA) vs. Kutter Crawford (2-2, 2.17 ERA)
The transition from pen to rotation isn’t always an easy one, but thus far, Bryse Wilson has held his own. The innings load hasn’t been tremendous, maxing out at six innings in one start and not making it through five in any other. Still, considering he’s a swingman, Wilson does an excellent job of controlling action on the base paths. Given the quality of Milwaukee’s bullpen, Wilson generally just needs to put up a few quality innings to start the game and keep the team in it.

Few pitchers have put it together and taken a leap more convincingly than Kutter Crawford. With an average fastball velocity of 92.7 MPH, Crawford doesn’t profile as the kind of arm that blows batters away, but he’s consistently getting players to chase and drawing weak contact from almost everyone who does make contact. This kind of surgical precision feels anachronistic in the UCL-testing era of fire-balling pitchers, but the repertoire is working for Crawford--so well that he’s leading the team’s rotation in WAR. Given the consistent output and his history of relative durability, he’s a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. 

Saturday, May 25th
Colin Rea (3-2 4.07 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (2-2 3.04 ERA)
All eyes are on Colin Rea, whose luck seems to be in a tenuous place after a red-hot start to the season. Rea’s ERA so far in May is 5.14, with an even uglier xERA of 5.58. Each start seems to build on the worrying trend of a degrading stat line, one that (from the start) looked to be bolstered largely by good luck. In his last start, the Astros tagged him for five runs over 4 1/3 innings. He did manage to strike out five over that period, but he’s likely pushing up against a conversation where the viability of his role as a starter has to come into question.

The numbers have never been especially eye-popping for Nick Pivetta, but 2024 seems to be revealing a new form for the Canadian-born righty. Last season ended with a respectable 4.04 ERA, which constituted substantial tightening-up for Pivetta, who has always hovered at or below average in walk rate. This year, with 99 batters faced, Pivetta has walked only two. Compare that to 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 IP and you can see why he’s raised a few eyebrows. Still, FIP doesn’t love Pivetta. At 4.52, there’s over a run in discrepancy between the two numbers, suggesting that there is a route to picking Pivetta apart, especially if the Crew can force him to throw a good number of pitches.

Sunday, May 26th
The Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tanner Houck (1.94 ERA)

If you’re tired of reading about the Red Sox and their formidable rotation, I have bad news for you. In a stable of seemingly prime talent, Tanner Houck is arguably leading the pack. Last year looked like trouble for Houck, but he rebounded from an ugly 1.3 WHIP and 5.01 ERA with (to this point) a 216 ERA+ and a 0.9 HR/9. The last start for Houck was spectacular: seven shutout innings with only two hits allowed. Houck is also the author of a rare complete-game shutout this season against the Guardians, and in only three of his starts has he surrendered more than two runs. 

As of Thursday afternoon, the Brewers have not yet announced a starting pitcher for Sunday’s game. Tobias Myers is certainly one candidate, after coming up in Joe Ross's stead earlier this week and making only a short relief appearance in Miami.

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Brice Turang: For all the well-deserved hype William Contreras has garnered, it’s been easy to overlook the incredible output by Turang. Yes, the Brewers faithful are paying attention, but in the national press, you barely hear a peep. This, despite the fact that Turang sits exactly 0.1 WAR back from Contreras. Literally every metric on defense and offense has taken a jump from last season to now, with the exception of sprint speed--which was already elite. If it’s reasonable to have Contreras in the MVP discussion, numerically speaking, it should be every bit as rational to include Turang.

Bryan Hudson: With an embattled rotation and a swingman game in the rotation, the Brewers are likely to be relying heavily on their bullpen in this series. Luckily, there are some elite arms in that pen, including rookie lefty Hudson. He was unceremoniously dumped by the Dodgers last year for an 18-year-old prospect who hadn’t even pitched in affiliated ball. Call it luck or propitious analysis by the front office, but the Brewers appear to have struck gold in unlocking Hudson’s potential. In 26 innings, he has a 0.68 ERA and 31 strikeouts - all good for an almost comical 600 ERA+.

Rafael Devers: Ever since trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers and letting Xander Bogaerts walk in free agency, Devers has become the face of the franchise. Adding to the mystique of 20 WAR and almost 200 home runs in his career, all in a Red Sox uniform, is that he just hit six of those home runs in as many games, setting a new franchise record. Devers may not be a surefire Hall of Famer like Betts, but he’s still reliably excellent, with two All-Star appearances and MVP votes in four of the last five seasons.

Wilyer Abreu: This electric rookie hit for a .316/.388/.474 slash in 28 games last season, which was a convincing enough test run to see him break camp with the team to start the season. He’s been a rejuvenating force not only at the plate, but (along with fellow newcomer Tyler O’Neill) for what was the dismal defense of the Red Sox outfield. In matching his elite arm strength with bat speed near the league average and the discipline to steadily get on base, Abreu is putting the pieces together.

PREDICTIONS 
This is a tough one to gauge. The Brewers have the better division, but the records between the two teams are pretty close. It’s also worth considering that the Red Sox play in a far tougher division. There’ve been a few question marks popping up for the Crew lately, with the most recent red flag being a shutout by the lowly Marlins. The same offense that couldn’t handle them is about to face back-to-back-to-back pitchers who have put up elite numbers this year. Sadly, I think Boston takes two of the three and provide a fitting end to a punishing road venture.