Terrific Swing Decisions Leading the Brewers' Offense to New Heights

A portion of the Milwaukee Brewers' fanbase thought this offense could be "sneaky good" this season as they rolled out a new-look, more diverse lineup than previous years. But anyone who says they believed the Brewers would average 6.33 runs per game through the first 12 contests is a liar. Yes, it's a small sample size, and it's absurd to think they will score more than a half-dozen times per game all year. However, it isn't a fluke after Milwaukee's 11-5 victory on Saturday marked six straight games with seven or more runs scored (tying a franchise record).

One immediate trend that stands out is the Brewers' improvement in swing decisions. Hitting is extremely challenging, but you can make it easier on yourself by swinging at more strikes and laying off pitches outside the zone. Milwaukee's hitters are still among the more patient clubs in baseball, just as they have been in the past few years. Choosing when to remain patient and take a hack is just as important. 

(Statistical Key for the chart below)

• O-Swing%: Percent of times swinging at pitches outside the strike zone
• Z-Swing%: Percent of times swinging at pitches within the strike zone
• Z-Contact%: Percent of times contact is made on swings within the strike zone

Cutting off four percent on swings outside the strike zone is enormous, particularly throughout an entire season. By not chasing those pitches, hitters can enjoy numerous benefits within a plate appearance. 

The obvious advantage for a batter is getting himself into better counts to do damage. Taking a close 1-0 fastball for a ball or laying off a tough breaking ball off the plate in a 1-1 count gives the hitter a huge edge. Now, the batter can look for his pitch and location to attack instead of being on the defensive and swinging at a "pitcher's pitch." When hitters are ahead in the count and able to get the bat head out, they barrel up more pitches - a key to consistently hard contact and quality slugging percentages. This year, Milwaukee ranks 9th in Barrel% (9.1%), while last year they finished 22nd (7.4%). On the flip side, when a hitter is behind, he either waits too long trying to recognize a pitch or expands his zone for fear of striking out looking.

Additionally, because the Brewers have taken a bunch more balls out of the zone, their contact with them has improved when they swing at strikes. Though they only swing one percent more often at strikes this season, they've increased contact on those pitches by more than one-and-a-half percent, up to 15th in baseball (22nd last year). These improvements are already paying dividends, as evidenced by the scoring output, so imagine what could happen across 6,000 plate appearances. While some regression will happen, these statistics tend to be more stable than others that fluctuate or indicate "luck."

Another reason this early-season outburst is promising over the long haul is that the improved discipline, particularly laying off pitches out of the zone, is almost across the board compared to last season. And in some cases, the upgrade is substantial. Whether it's the same player from 2023 or a new face in 2024, the O-Swing% decrease is stunning.

Returners

• Willy Adames: 33% -> 21.4%
• Sal Frelick: 31.1% -> 23.4%
• Christian Yelich: 25.1% -> 21.6%
• Brice Turang: 27.4% -> 25%
• William Contreras: 24.6% -> 23.5%

Previous Brewers vs. Newcomers

• Tyrone Taylor (35.2%) -> Jake Bauers (19.5%)
• Owen Miller (32%) -> Rhys Hoskins (17.3%)
• Joey Wiemer (28.8%) -> Oliver Dunn (13.5%)
• Brian Anderson (28.3%) -> Joey Ortiz (17.3%)

When you look at those numbers, think of how many more strikes were racked up on Brewers' hitters last season because they were chasing wildly. Not to mention, when swinging at pitches out of the zone, a batter is more likely to make weak contact and more often result in an out. The benefits of discipline have many tentacles.

The beauty of what the lineup is doing thus far is that it makes pitching around certain hitters more challenging. Instead of having gaping holes with batters who will chase and get themselves out, a majority of Brewers batters are putting together quality at-bats. Getting ahead in counts allows them to remain patient on strikes on the fringes of the zone, the attack mistakes in their wheelhouses. 

It's been incredibly fun to watch the first two weeks. In theory, these quality approaches will provide more peaks and fewer valleys than we've seen with past Brewers' offenses. Is it the influence of manager Pat Murphy? Have the new hitters rubbed off on some of the returning guys? There likely isn't one answer, but it has been a sight to see. Now, throw in a bunch of stolen bases thanks to their team speed and add a little more power than a year ago, and suddenly, this club appears far more dangerous than many pundits thought before Opening Day.