The Brewers Made a Mistake with Shane Smith, by Underestimating His Fastball or His Flexibility

Right now, the Brewers could really use an arm like Shane Smith's. The Rule 5 Draft pick is dominating for the Chicago White Sox. His fastball was at the heart of the Crew's decision to leave him unprotected last fall, with its lack of "rise" culminating in a pitch many considered to be "dead-zone". It turns out that may not be the case, and the pitch shape is markedly different from what we expected.

Rolling back to November 2024, the Brewers' 40-man roster had several arms that were just barely clinging onto their spots. Tyler Jay was perhaps in the most perilous position, as seen when he was later designated for assignment, while they left a 40-man spot open and eventually spent it on Connor Thomas, their own Rule 5 Draft selection. They also added Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick, two decisions that have proved astute—but they left Smith open to pilfering.

Smith had only begun to stretch out as a starter in 2024, after some dominant relief outings in 2023. With injury woes to begin his professional career, the Brewers didn't have a lot of in-game action for Smith as an undrafted free agent signing out of Wake Forest in 2021. His mid-90s fastball was blowing past hitters, while his curveball was a wipeout offering. There was a suspicion that while Smith was performing well with Double-A Biloxi, perhaps the strangled offensive environment of the Southern League was prettying up his results—and that the fastball would get hit hard when he moved up levels. This was, after all, his first season stretching out with the Brewers.

In fact, at Double A, many teams would have been wary of Smith's lack of track record and (at least on the surface) the absence of a strong primary offering. Perhaps the transfer of one Walker McKinven to the White Sox assisted them in this; perhaps they saw the mechanics that would allow them to develop the kick changeup that has been so pivotal to his success in the big leagues so far. Either way, the White Sox took him first in the Rule 5 and haven't looked back. Let's look below at just how well Smith's pitches have played (Including the fastball):

As I alluded to, Smith's fastball was considered an offering that would struggle as he moved up the ranks. That hasn't quite proven to be the case. Although it has been squared up at times, the damage has been well contained. Sporting a 2.08 ERA and 3.05 FIP across 38 1/3 innings with 1.5 WAR early this season, Smith has been an unmitigated success for the White Sox, while the Brewers were forced to splurge on Quinn Priester, at the cost of some of their outfield depth in the farm system and their 33rd pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.

We have a tendency with four-seam fastballs to look at the vertical profile of the pitch, and to ignore or downplay the horizontal break. It's in the latter dimension where Smith differentiates himself. His fastball cuts glove-side more than you would expect, which has been key in avoiding barrels in 2025:

Let me explain the graph above a little. Jeremy Maschino of PitchProfiler.com has created a model that shows the expected movement profile of an arsenal (the shaded zones), compared to its actual movement (the clear circles) to assess how that movement deviates from expectation based on arm angle, release point, spin, etc., and if that has an impact on deceiving hitters.

Smith has a slightly lower three-quarters arm slot at 34°, meaning that he's expected to generate more run than ride on his fastball naturally. While the ride is as expected, Smith's fastball actually doesn't break horizontally as much as expected, therefore staying in on the hands of lefties and just keeping off the barrel of the bat. It's more of a cut-ride fastball, in the mold of the Cubs' development with the likes of Justin Steele and Cade Horton. That shape is even more unusual, based on the arm angle.

You can also see the rise he gets on his sweeper, as well as the increased drop on both his curveball and kick-change. That creates an interesting profile, wherein he can stay both above or below bats, compared to the expected movement. The key question was always whether the fastball could play in the major leagues, and it seems (thus far) that it can. It's not an elite offering, but it can survive and allow the rest of his arsenal to thrive in tandem with it.

The other reason for his success is the supreme command Smith has of his primary offering. His location grade (again per the diagram from Pitch Profiler) is above average, and his overall mix accompanying that fastball has given it a proPitching+ grade of 107, where 100 is average. Despite not having the best movement profile on his fastball, the combination of his location and the full arsenal he has makes it a strong offering:

The other factor the Brewers appear to have overlooked is the bulldog in Smith. He was an undrafted free agent recovering from Tommy John surgery when they brought him aboard. He went from a reliever to starting games for the Brewers in 2024 with aplomb. He had shown adaptability and success at every stage for the Brewers, despite some of the queries over his stuff. It seems the Brewers underestimated the extent and transferability of that resilience.

The Brewers may have hoped that Smith went under the radar, given his limited time in a starting role and concern over his injury history, as well as some misjudgment over his fastball shape. It's unlikely they themselves missed this, but perhaps they hoped other organizations would. However their logic was formed, the results are currently speaking for themselves.

It's becoming clearer with each start that the Brewers made a mistake with Smith. It may have cost them dearly in prospect capital, with John Holobetz added to Yophery Rodriguez and the No. 33 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Pitching depth has already been a minor problem for them this year, and if Smith continues pitching like this, the Brewers will rue the choice to spend a roster spot on Jay and/or Thomas instead of him for years to come.