The Hunter: William Contreras's Fight to Control the Running Game

This isn't a new problem. It's been the increasingly evident "but" attached to all the well-earned praise of William Contreras's defense that has flowed forth since he joined the Brewers last spring and immediately became one of the best pitch framers in baseball. Despite his obvious athleticism and zeal for the effort, Contreras isn't even slowing down opposing basestealers, and hasn't done so since roughly the middle of last season.

Go back to the middle of last August, and Contreras has thrown out just four of 37 runners stealing against him. This year, specifically, opponents are 16-for-18. Some of that struggle is down to the new rules that limit pitchers' pickoff attempts on runners who reach base. Some can be attributed to Brewers pitchers not doing enough to force those runners to pause, and some of it is situation-specific.

Several times already this year, a runner has taken off from first with another on third, and Contreras has either faked a throw or held the ball, rather than throw through and risk a run coming home. At least one other time, he tried to earn his pitcher an inning-ending called third strike, rather than make a throw but lose the opportunity to frame that pitch.

Still, there's a real problem here. Of the 43 catchers who have made at least five attempts on runners heading to second, Contreras ranks 28th in average velocity on his throws; 33rd in the time it takes him to get rid of the ball after receiving it; and (thanks to those two markedly below-average components) 39th in overall pop time. Under the current rule set, a pop time of over 2 seconds (where his average sits, so far) is not going to yield many outs. With a below-average arm and a below-average time to release the throw in the first place, only exceptional accuracy would allow Contreras to thwart a good runner.

He hasn't had that so far in 2024.

Now, that's not a great pitch on which to throw, and Contreras can hardly be faulted for not being precise with a throw from his knees. On the other hand, this isn't a good jump, and as you can see, there was time enough to get an out. Even a slightly later throw could have been good enough. It just needed to be on target. More than a few times, since the 2023 All-Star break, Contreras has thrown almost wildly, trying to do generate some extra oomph or release the ball a bit more quickly but losing his lock on the target.

The problem goes farther upstream. Catchers have always been racing the clock when trying to nail runners, and as a result, they have to sacrifice their optimal throwing mechanics slightly. Most catchers find ways to shorten their stride. Most throw from a low arm slot, the same way a shortstop trying to get a fast runner at first base would. It's an exercise in economy of movement, and a short stride and a low three-quarters motion make for the best balance of quick release and strong, accurate throw.

Here's Contreras not quite getting a runner, despite an accurate throw. Watch his movements closely.

Again, the rules being what they are and with a runner as fast as Michael Siani going, the math was against Contreras all along. His feet are quick and his movements are smooth. The throw's on the mark. There's not much more he can do. Yet, notice, too, how high his arm slot is. That's the case just about every time Contreras throws. Maybe that's a conscious decision, because his raw arm strength isn't up to the challenge of throwing hard enough to get an out with a quicker motion. He also gains a lot of ground with his stride, which helps with arm strength and can be good for accuracy, but which makes it take longer to release the ball.

Let's cut Contreras a break, and take a look at an instance in which he did get the out.

This is great action. He's quick, his throw is strong, and it's on a dime. It's also, effectively, a pitchout, though not by design. Joel Payamps missed his spot, but it benefited Contreras, taking him part of the way up into a good throwing position even as he caught the ball. It's a great play. It's also from last summer, before his slump really began, and it required some good luck, in the form of a high, arm-side miss from his pitcher. 

Contreras nabbed another runner, though, in a huge moment Friday night. Let's look at that one.

This is another fastball from his pitcher, high and wide of the zone to the arm side, but this one isn't an accident. Contreras called for a modified pitchout, in the way he set the target. He anticipated the steal attempt, and he got the drop on them. It's a brilliant move. In the cat-and-mouse game between a catcher and a runner, the roles can switch from one pitch to the next. Contreras made himself the cat and caught the mouse by laying a clever trap.

It helped that there was a right-handed batter at the plate in this instance, because lately, Contreras needs the ball to be on that side of his body to set up and make an effective throw. Here's the plot of pitch locations on his four times catching runners stealing since August:

Now, here's the same plot for all pitches on which runners successfully stole a base against him in the same period.

Catching the ball slightly toward his backhand side helps Contreras carry his momentum straight through as he steps forward. It keeps him on line without hurting his ability to rotate and create power. Most catchers throw better on a ball in that area. Right now, what sets Contreras apart is that he needs that kind of pitch to make a sufficient throw.

Things like modified pitchouts can still help blunt the opposing running game, though. So can another tactic, one Contreras has fervently embraced: pickoff attempts. Pitchers only get a couple of chances per plate appearance to hold a runner (or try to erase them) by throwing over, but catchers can add their own arms to the arsenal of deterrence, tax-free. This season, he's thrown behind runners 13 times: 10 at first base, and three at second. No other backstop in the league has made more than seven pickoff attempts in total.

It might not be possible to fully fix this problem. That's fine. Contreras's pitch framing (though down in the early going this year) and his blocking of errant pitches (quite good, last year and this month) are more helpful than his inability to nail runners is harmful. It seems like he, the coaching staff, and the pitchers with whom he works have a plan to mitigate the damage of the latter, anyway. It's fun to watch Contreras try to fix it, anyway. His perfectionism is part of why he's an MVP candidate. His imperfections, in that light, can be forgiven.