The Metamorphosis of Jackson Chourio Is Almost Complete

Jackson Chourio has shown an adaptability beyond his years throughout each step of his professional journey. In one year, he took himself from being an 18-year-old at Low A and High A with a 25.5% strikeout rate, to a player striking out just 17% of the time as a 19-year-old in Double A. Two of his last three months at the level saw a strikeout rate below 11%. 

That’s just one example of how quickly he learns, and we’ve seen exactly that in the majors this season. To watch Chourio at the start of the year compared to now is chalk and cheese in terms of confidence, pitch recognition and quality of contact, all against the best pitching in the world, at just 20 years old. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, and replaced the production the Brewers were getting from Christian Yelich.

That being said, there is one area that he hasn’t quite mastered, although it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him rectify it in the next six weeks.

Since Jun. 1, pitchers have had quite a clear plan of attack for Chourio, spamming the outer third of the plate. When they miss, he’s been relatively adept at punishing them, and he has been quite patient at laying off those outer-third pitches early in the count. He’s aware of the weakness and taking steps to mitigate it, but that can only do so much.

Above are the locations of all of Chourio’s exit velocities of 104+ mph. He doesn’t have a truly elite 90th-percentile exit velocity, but he’s been producing a lot more of this type of contact since Jun. 1. Yet, not a single one all year has come on the outer third of the plate. Interestingly, he's also swung a lot more in the upper third of the zone than the lower third, but that’s a smaller issue.

The good news is that he’s already started adjusting--not so much in terms of damage, but in how he’s elevating the ball. The latter has improved in each month. Chourio had a 59.2% ground ball rate on outer third pitches through the end of June, but as we’ve already seen, he adapts incredibly quickly. In August, the ground-ball rate has dropped to 46.2%, and it’s largely because he’s beginning to get a hold of those outer-third sliders. He’s picking them up a lot earlier out of the hand and has been able to keep his weight back on them longer, making better contact as a result.

Anyone who watched Chourio in the minors knows he has prodigious power to the opposite field, but a lot of that comes on inside-outing fastballs to that area. If he can translate that to the slider on the outer third, then there may not be a weakness to his game. The reason I think this may be very doable is that he perhaps has the best quality of contact in the majors--to the point that it’s almost detrimental.

The reason I say that is that Chourio, when he makes contact, almost invariably puts the ball in play. Since Jun. 1, he has the second-lowest foul-ball rate of any player in MLB, whether he’s swinging inside or outside the strike zone. He could still do with chasing less often, and that will come with the pitch recognition advances happening naturally from facing big-league pitchers, but his ability to put the ball in play when he swings is incredible, and a big reason why his walk rate might never jump off the page. It’s also a reason why he may compete for a batting title quite regularly, unless pitchers attempt to manage their way around him in the lineup more often.

Either way, his contact skills are so good that if he can pick the pitch up quickly, he’ll have minimal issues squaring the ball up. It seems like that may be happening before our eyes. Until then, the more he can force pitchers onto the inner half of the zone, the more damage we’ll see down the home stretch.

What do you think of Jackson Chourio’s recent performances? Have you noticed the heavy targeting of the outer third of the strike zone? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.