The Paradox of Patience: Is Jake Bauers Becoming a Little Too Passive in the Strike Zone?

Jake Bauers has been a potent force all season in the Brewers lineup, almost single-handedly carrying them through the first month of the season. His 139 wRC+ estimates his offensive production to be 39% better than a league-average hitter, and he currently leads the Brewers in home runs. It's tough to be disappointed in those numbers, but the Brewers have seen that production dip in June as pitchers have changed their approach to Bauers.

If we isolate him to the last two weeks of games (which include two games in Las Vegas), Bauers has slashed just .161/.297/.258, with a 40.5% strikeout rate. Now, every hitter goes through some peaks and troughs, but there are some areas in which Bauers needs to adjust to how he's being attacked.

The first thing we can see clearly is that pitchers are pitching around him more often. The volume of pitches inside the strike zone that he's faced has decreased dramatically in June, and that shouldn't be a surprise. Teams are well aware of his threat in a lineup starved of consistent power, and they're not letting Bauers be the one to beat them. Below is the month-by-month percentage of pitches faced by Bauers inside the strike zone across all counts:

He dropped from 55.8% of fastballs in May landing inside the zone to a mere 47.2% of them so far in June, with similar reductions in zone rate for breaking stuff. Bauers has been crushing fastballs this season to the tune of a .314 batting average and .579 slugging percentage, so it's no surprise that pitchers are trying to keep these away from the danger zone. 

The reduced production over the last two weeks isn't because he's chasing these fastballs, however. in fact, it's quite the opposite, Bauers has become too passive, trying to balance doing damage with avoiding the chase rates that can cause him to swing and miss excessively. If we compare Bauers's performance in June to date against his April/May form, there are some glaring differences:

The in-zone swing rate is the lowest in baseball over this time, and that's the opposite of what you want from a player you're relying on to contribute some raw slugging numbers. He's taking a lot of pitches. He isn't chasing, and he's getting on base via the walk at an astonishing clip. He's also still showing remarkable quality of contact numbers. It's just that he doesn't seem to be targeting that contact all too often this month, going a little into his shell.

The other thing pitchers are doing a great job of is preventing Bauers from pulling the ball in the air. While he doesn't need that air pull to clear the fences with regularity, and his willingness to drive the ball to the opposite field has been a growth point this season, it's still the primary source of his power. Even bat speed superfreaks find most of their extra-base hits on the pull side.

That being said, for Bauers, it's still about striking a balance with his approach at the plate. It's when he uncorks a swing that might need a little more nuance. For example, pitchers are throwing him just 37.5% of pitches inside the strike zone when he gets into a three-ball count. They're not concerned with walking him, and he knows it.

However, they're not as concerned with throwing such strikes early in the count, throwing 55% of pitches inside the zone in 0-0 counts, more than they did in May. They're gambling that Bauers, like all Brewers hitters, will be in auto-take mode in a 3-0 count, and that he'll be pretty passive at the front end of the at-bat, too.

So Bauers has some leverage in counts with no strikes, and he's getting pitches to hit. Deeper into the at-bat, they're just avoiding the zone at all costs. The problem is, the Brewers slugger is currently swinging more often in deeper counts than he is early, so he's missing his opportunity on those pitches that are there to hit. I'm not suggesting Bauers should swing out of his shoes in every hitter's count, but he's shown enough consistent thump this year that his approach can be centered around more than a prayer to be walked.

Bauers is enough of a threat that he's no longer getting pitches to hit in the counts he's previously targeted. It might be that he now has to search elsewhere for those pitches, and be more aggressive early in the at-bat. That, or the Brewers need to engineer some lineup support around him to scare teams off putting a runner on base for free. Either way, it will be fascinating to see how Bauers adjusts to how teams are approaching him.