Tobias Myers May Be Here For A Good Time And a Long Time

Tobias Myers has bounced around six different organizations, some of them notably strong with pitching, but since leaving the Tampa Bay Rays, Myers has struggled to unlock his talent. Fastball command issues and declining velocity clouded his stint in the Guardians system. He signed with the Brewers in the 2022-23 offseason and struck out 168 in 137 innings for the Biloxi Shuckers in Double-A, despite sporting a 5.00 ERA. Toward the end of last year, however, the minor-league experts began to take notice of a breakout, with Myers recording a 2.53 ERA in September and a strikeout rate of 37.3%.

The Brewers have a habit of tapping into the abilities of formerly hyped prospects after the shine has worn off, and it’s important to remember that Myers is just 25 years old--despite the fact that he made his professional debut in 2016. He was valued highly by the Guardians, who couldn’t quite get the best out of him, in large part due to the struggle he had to generate swing-and-miss after leaving the Rays. The question is: just what have the Brewers got in Myers?

An Electric Fastball
Tobias Myers's four-seam fastball has remained the electric offering we saw take shape in 2023, sitting 94 mph and touching 97 mph while averaging 20” of induced vertical break. Simply put, that fastball is effective, but it hasn’t always been this way. Myers regained almost 3 mph on average on his primary offering in 2023 and it’s a big reason why his strikeouts returned to elite levels. 

The rise (combined with average to above-average velocity) that he maintains deep into starts is a nightmare for opposing hitters, who have whiffed on the pitch 32.1% of the time in Triple-A this season. To put that in perspective, Freddy Peralta has a 23.6% whiff rate on his four-seamer in 2024. Only Paul Skenes has a better swing-and-miss rate in Triple-A than Myers's; that’s some pretty lofty company.

Realistically this is the pitch that he makes his name on, and although there are some questions surrounding his delivery, the results are tough to argue with when you combine the movement with the added velocity.

The Brand-New Cutter
An obvious feel for spin led the Brewers to lean into a cutter for Myers, and it hasn’t disappointed. While the cutter isn’t as prolific as a swing-and-miss pitch, it’s been highly effective at missing barrels and getting easy, early outs off his fastball. In a small sample, he has induced an average exit velocity of just 80 mph, with a nice 69% ground-ball rate. It’s proven highly effective as a secondary offering for a pitcher who was primarily fastball/slider before finding this look. Reducing the use of his changeup and curveball by leaning into the cutter have produced strong results so far, and more importantly, it’s been a valuable out pitch to lefties.

The Slider
An effective swing-and-miss pitch, when he leaves it up, he has a propensity to get hit hard and in the air. When executed properly, though, it’s a strong putaway pitch. A gyro slider with more vertical drop than horizontal movement, he’s generating swings and misses 60% of the time this season. With two strikes, that elevates even further. He's commanded it okay so far this season, and when it stays down he can really limit hard contact, too.

Adding a third plus pitch in the cutter has allowed Myers's arsenal to play up, and that four-seam fastball is something to watch closely in what is likely to be his debut Monday or Tuesday. He has the raw stuff and the improved command to excel; it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him staying on the Brewers roster. He's battled hard for several years to be where he is today, and he's still just 25 years old. He's taken strides forward with the Brewers and seems ready for the opportunity to start against Pittsburgh tomorrow.

The reality is that Myers needed injury to get his shot, and barring further setbacks from Jakob Junis and Robert Gasser or a longer-term prognosis for DL Hall or Wade Miley, he could be off the team in short order. However, quality will stick around, and if he shows the same durability to get through innings and generate whiffs at the big-league level that he has in the minors, the Brewers will find a place for him on their roster. They can't afford not to.

We’re rooting for you here at Brewer Fanatic Toby! You’ve earned your shot, go get ‘em!