Tough First Inning Took Brewers Out of Driver's Seat in NLDS Game 3

The Brewers made the right call in delaying Quinn Priester's first postseason start to Game 3 of the NLDS. While he blossomed into one of their most dependable starters during the regular season, his arsenal does not match up well against the Cubs. By enacting a bullpen game in Game 2, Milwaukee gave itself the best chance to grab a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. The tradeoff was that Priester would make his playoff debut on the road, in front of a spirited Chicago crowd, but with three opportunities to win one more game, the Brewers were playing with house money.

Sure enough, Priester's outing did not go well, but he further complicated his task by spraying the ball all over and catching too much plate when he did throw strikes. The outcome was four runs allowed and just two outs recorded, but he would not have found much success against anyone with pitches to these locations:

"I think the moment got to him a little bit," Pat Murphy said postgame. "He's not technically a rookie, but that's his first postseason appearance. He had a long layoff. It's in his hometown. I feel for him, because that's not typically how he's done this year."

Priester, meanwhile, took full responsibility for his outing, saying the onus was on him to make an in-game adjustment and work with what he had on Wednesday.

Murphy and the Brewers may stress the importance of playing the game pitch by pitch regardless of the score, but the reality is that a 53-pitch first inning and an early multi-run deficit set a different tone for a game than promptly jumping out to a lead. Priester was not in control, and that theme seemed to linger for his team the entire evening.

The Brewers enjoyed big first innings in each of the first two games, looking like a team in total command of the situation—and of their opponent. While they were competitive enough on Wednesday—the bullpen blanked the Cubs the rest of the way, and the offense chipped back to within one run—they performed like a group trying to play catch-up. That tone left them playing short of their best, resulting in multiple missed opportunities to turn the game around.

Jake Bauers's RBI single in the fourth cut the deficit to two runs, put runners on the corners with one out, and brought the go-ahead run to the plate in Brandon Lockridge. With Jameson Taillon on the ropes, the Brewers attempted to apply more pressure with a safety squeeze play.

Unfortunately, the play went awry on multiple fronts. With third baseman Matt Shaw playing closer to the bag for a right-on-right matchup, Caleb Durbin had a smaller lead off the bag. Lockridge then bunted the ball too hard to first baseman Michael Busch, who had Durbin dead to rights at the plate, initiating a rundown.

Catcher Carson Kelly fired the ball to Shaw, who chased Durbin toward the plate. It seemed Durbin had a chance to beat Shaw or his potential flip to Busch with a dive into home, but he instead turned back to keep the play going and ensure the runners moved up to second and third. He was ultimately tagged out, and Joey Ortiz then grounded out to end the threat.

While certainly not an easy play for a baserunner (and a hard one to fault him for, given that he did enable those runners to advance), it stood out as a moment where Durbin made a conservative decision over an aggressive one. His manager preferred that he try to score.

"I wish Caleb would've kept going," Murphy said. "I think if he would've just accelerated and believed and dove in there, it would've taken a great throw. Certainly, it's going to be close enough, [Lockridge is] going to be safe at first, and now we've got something going."

For much of the night, the Brewers' swing decisions mirrored their typically refined plate discipline. They had some shakier at-bats as the game progressed, though, especially in key situations in the eighth inning.

After Jackson Chourio's leadoff double, Brice Turang uncharacteristically chased two breaking balls off the plate for a strikeout. Between William Contreras and Caleb Durbin walks, Sal Frelick bounced into a fielder's choice on the first pitch he saw. Brad Keller then punched out Bauers to end the inning, in a matchup that swung in the pitcher's favor after he landed a 1-1 changeup for a strike.

"You've got to get the big hit sometimes," Murphy said. "We didn't get the big hit."

The Brewers still find themselves in a favorable position. Thanks to José Quintana and Grant Anderson combining for five innings of scoreless relief, their pitching remains in fine shape with two more opportunities left to close out the series. Even in a game where they were not in control, their opponent narrowly hung on to defeat them by a run. Wednesday was a reminder that the Cubs won't go down quietly, though, and that the Brewers are much better off establishing their own tone early against a worthy opponent.