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In past postseasons, the Brewers have not hesitated to get creative with their pitching plans. Before the start of the NLDS over the weekend, there were signs that some unconventional arrangements were around the corner.
"I think what we're looking at is Game 1 [Freddy Peralta], and then beyond that, it's all hands on deck," general manager Matt Arnold said on Friday.
It was a vague statement, and the next few days have yet to bring much more clarity. Beyond announcing that Aaron Ashby would be first out of the chute on Monday, the Brewers have remained coy on who would cover innings for Game 2. Quinn Priester might seem like the obvious choice as the bulk guy, but Pat Murphy suggested on Sunday that the club itself has yet to make that call.
"I don't know if Priester will be next," Murphy said. "I really don't."
It stands to reason that the right-hander will at least be available in some capacity. Priester emerged as the Brewers' most reliable starter behind Peralta in the regular season, posting a 3.32 ERA, 3.96 SIERA, and 80 DRA-, with a 56.1% ground ball rate in 29 outings. They have reasons to use him unconventionally, though.
While Priester has weapons in his five-pitch arsenal that can play against left-handed batters, they've fared better against his usual mix of sinkers, sliders, and cutters than right-handed opponents. Lefties have hit .249/.331/.405, a noticeable enough split that the Brewers used an opener in front of him five times during the regular season to limit his exposure to powerful left-handed bats at the top of an order. By delaying the start of his outing, Priester could cover the same number of innings while facing those hitters two times, instead of three.
The Cubs' lineup warrants an opener. Left-handers Michael Busch (151 wRC+ against righties) and Kyle Tucker (137) have been their two best bats this year, and switch-hitting Ian Happ is far better from the left side (123) than from the right (96). They match up worse against Ashby, who yielded just two extra-base hits to a left-handed hitter all year.
Beyond the platoon game, the Cubs are an unfavorable matchup for Priester's arsenal. In the regular season, 62% of his pitches were sinkers or cutters – the two pitches against which Chicago made its loudest contact.
Ashby has leaned more on his sinker this year than in any other season of his career, but he can also pivot to his two big breaking balls or changeup when necessary. The Brewers also deliberately chose Robert Gasser, another southpaw whose best pitch is the signature sweeper that he's thrown over a third of the time in each of the last two seasons. Gasser is not fully stretched out, but he is another length option behind Ashby.
Where Priester fits into the mix could depend on the game situation. Perhaps he'll follow Ashby for a few innings and get one matchup apiece against the Cubs' best lefties during the middle innings. He might work strictly against their righties near the bottom of the lineup, in a truncated outing. If another early Brewers outburst stakes him to a big lead, he could function as an innings-eater to save other bullpen arms. Conversely, if it's a close game and Craig Counsell shakes up his lineup to limit pockets favorable for Priester, he may not pitch at all.
Murphy teased during the final stretch of the regular season that the Brewers could deploy players in different roles, based on matchups. Arnold characterized Peralta as their lone traditional playoff starter. The first round of new and surprising pitching looks could be on tap for their second postseason game.
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