Trade Targets: Could The Brewer Pitching Lab Take Kutter Crawford To Another Level?

The Red Sox have very obvious needs, as it stands, in terms of their starting rotation and outfield if they want to compete in 2024. For such a large franchise, the pressure is growing to show a more competitive product on the field, which the Brewers can help address. However, this will come at a cost, and Kutter Crawford is likely to be a centerpiece of any trade.

Crawford made massive strides in 2023 that weren’t borne out in his final stat line, particularly behind his four-seam fastball. Crawford used elite command in the upper part of the strike zone to hold hitters to just a .177 batting average against his primary offering. With above-average swing and miss, his spin rates are elite and promote an average break of almost three inches over the norm. As a result, he coaxed hitters into getting under the ball a lot, something the Brewers' rapid outfield mix would gobble up with glee, which can be a hindrance with the Green Monster in left field.

He has similar above-average movement profiles on his cutter (another incredibly well-located pitch that he likes to go high and away to right-handers with) and his curveball. The cutter ran into some misfortune this year in terms of his expected stat line, but the curveball was destroyed, leading to some pitch development behind the scenes. In June, Crawford debuted a sweeper as an off-speed offering, which showed serious promise, with hitters going just .128/.205 against it alongside a 36.5% swing and miss rate. It has the potential to separate itself as the main off-speed pitch in 2024, something that could take his performance to the next level. 

The interesting thing about the sweeper is that it doesn't generate great movement characteristics. However, the strength of Crawford's rising fastball and cutter make it play up to a highly competitive level, laying a platform for success over his remaining years of team control. The Brewers have shown great success in coaching up off-speed pitches, something that Crawford's split-finger may benefit from. Still, the main premise is that replacing his curveball with the sweeper or even balancing the pitch mix substantially between the two is a fast-track pass to better results on the pitch. His dominant fastball helped him to an xERA of just 3.25 last season, with solid chase rates, hard hit rates, and walk rates. He has all the makings of a number two or three starter in the right organization.

Why does he suit the Brewers?
The Brewers' internal scouting department has a propensity for targeting pitchers with a feel for creating movement on the ball. These traits have created a dominant rotation in the past, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Eric Lauer all showing high spin fastballs to generate above-average swing and miss. Crawford fits this bill, and further development to his off-speed pitches (he also worked on a splitter this past year) could see him ascend to the next tier of starting pitcher. He is arbitration-eligible in 2026 and is under team control through the 2028 season, giving the team a lot of time to produce some high upside from him.

Crawford is also a lower profile acquisition in terms of hype, which could allow better players to accompany him as part of a deal for Burnes than, say, a Brayan Bello would bring in. Matt Arnold has expressly stated he wants to feel like the Brewers are winning every trade they get into. With Yamamoto off the market, Burnes is likely to get a lot more attention from some desperate big market clubs, and as such, the price will have to be substantial to pry him from the Brewers. Kutter Crawford could be the central piece of that package from the Red Sox.

Another aspect to consider is the desire for solid pull-side power from the right-hand side in Fenway Park, something the Brewers currently have in an outfielder. Joey Wiemer has a lot of work on to quiet his swing and reach his potential. However, his ceiling is indisputable, and his towering pull power, combined with the electric defense and cannon arm, would suit the Red Sox to a tee.