What are Brewers' Plans for New Trade Acquisition Andrew Vaughn?

A day after publicly requesting a trade, Aaron Civale got his wish. Milwaukee traded the veteran righty to the Chicago White Sox. Civale, acquired for shortstop prospect Gregory Barrios in July 2024, became an integral part of the rotation down the stretch last season. This season was a different story, though, as Civale ended up the odd man out in the Brewers’ rotation. 

Milwaukee has prioritized starting pitching depth in recent years, and now has more starting pitchers than they know what to do with. Logan Henderson, who sports a 1.71 ERA through four starts with the Crew, is back in Triple-A, because there’s no room in the big-league rotation. The same goes for 2024 Brewers Most Valuable Pitcher Tobias Myers. DL Hall and Aaron Ashby, both of whom could also reasonably start, are coming out of the bullpen as long relievers. With the call-up of top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski, there wasn’t a spot for Civale in the rotation.

The return for Civale was former White Sox top prospect Andrew Vaughn, who was immediately assigned to Triple-A Nashville. Vaughn, a slow, defensively unimpressive first baseman, has recorded an OPS+ between 98 and 111 each of the last three seasons. This season has been a different story. Vaughn’s slash line is just .189/.218/.314 through 193 plate appearances. His OPS+ is an abysmal 49.

Despite his stats this season, Vaughn could present an appealing buy-low option. Once upon a time, the 27-year-old was the third overall pick in the MLB Draft. His OPS+ (97) and batting average (career .248) are both pretty average, even after an abysmal season. Per Vaughn’s Baseball Savant page, he ranks around the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity. Vaughn has spent the last few weeks in Triple-A, but prior to his demotion, he actually ranked as the second-most unlucky hitter in the entire league. All of that suggests he’s certainly capable of playing better than he has this season.

The first question with Vaughn is, simply, how to get a career-best season out of him. Lucky for the Brewers, then, that a couple of the red flags in Vaughn’s profile are fairly easy to identify. His peripherals at the plate include a 3.6% walk rate, a 34.2% chase rate, and a bat speed of just 70.0 mph.

Bat speed is possible to improve through strength training and mechanics. One of Vaughn's former teammates, Tyler Osik, described his workout routine as "showing up [twice] a week and dumbbell pressing 40 pounds." If Osik is right, and Vaughn didn't work out as much as he should have with the White Sox, that's an easy explanation for why his bat speed is slower than average, despite good hard-hit numbers. It would also be an easy fix for the Brewers. Plate discipline is a little harder to teach, but the Brewers have had success in past years in improving hitters’ walk rate. Eric Thames, for example, went from a sub-6% walk rate with the Blue Jays to a 13.6% walk rate in his first season with the Brewers. 

The second question is: assuming Vaughn can match (or even improve upon) his production from previous years, does he even fit into the Brewers’ long-term plans? Milwaukee already has Rhys Hoskins (118 OPS+ this season) and Jake Bauers (114 OPS+), although both are free agents after the season. The Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate, the Nashville Sounds, features first-base prospect Ernesto Martinez Jr. (.260/.396/.425). Bobby Dalbec and Anthony Seigler (.301/.440/.520) could man first in a pinch. Milwaukee also has a number of slugging prospects in the lower minors, including Mike Boeve (Brewers No. 6), Tyler Black (No. 7), Eric Bitonti (No. 8), and Luke Adams (No. 9). Brock Wilken (No. 18) leads all of Double-A in home runs, with 17. 

If Vaughn plays well enough in Triple-A to force the Brewers’ hand, the Crew might have some hard decisions to make. Where would Vaughn fit into MIlwaukee’s long-term plans?

Option 1: 2026 Starting First Baseman
Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers are both playing well, but it’s highly possible neither of them is on the roster next year. Milwaukee’s four top-10 first base prospects won’t be ready next year, with the possible exception of Black (in whom confidence is plunging, both within the organization and throughout pro baseball). Vaughn is only a year older than Martinez, and two years older than Black. Furthermore, unlike those two, Vaughn has already produced at the major-league level.  

It’s possible the Brewers see him as a potential replacement for Bauers. Vaughn’s career OPS+ (97) is slightly better than Bauers’s OPS+ as a Brewer (92), and significantly higher than his career OPS+ (83). Vaughn (.696) also has a slightly higher OPS against right-handers than Bauers (.683) and a way higher OPS (.750 to .617) against lefties. 

The Brewers organization has had success in finding major-league talent and helping them turn the corner. Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and Jesús Aguilar are among the players who started (and often struggled) elsewhere, but turned in career-best seasons with Milwaukee. 

It’s far from a sure thing that Vaughn improves as a Brewer. However, as I mentioned above, some of the underlying numbers suggest he could put up better numbers than he’s shown so far in his career. If the Brewers can get even minor improvement from Vaughn, his OPS will be closer to Rhys Hoskins territory than to Bauers. That’s starting-level production. 

Vaughn is also a righty, so the Brewers could try him in a platoon with Black and/or Martinez—both of whom are left-handed hitters—or even with a returning Bauers.

Option 2: Trade Candidate
Milwaukee’s most pressing need lies with the left side of the infield. Shortstop Joey Ortiz currently has an OPS of .506, by far the lowest OPS in the majors among qualifying players. Third baseman Caleb Durbin is hitting better than Ortiz, but his .633 OPS is still about 80 points below average. Vaughn has a career OPS of .709, but he can’t play third base or shortstop. 

A couple of names, such as Arizona’s Eugenio Suárez, have been thrown around as possible trade targets for Milwaukee. Civale is a good pitcher, but his numbers this season (4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) aren’t incredible. He is what he is: a solid fourth starter. Arizona, for example, probably wouldn’t trade a guy like Suárez for Civale.

Vaughn, on the other hand, is still seen as having untapped potential. He’s a bust, but his status as a former first-round pick hasn’t left him altogether. If he starts playing well, the narrative around him will center around whether or not he’s “finally putting it all together.” 

Vaughn was rushed to the majors after hitting .255 with five home runs in High-A. He wasn’t ready, and he still put up average numbers. He’s spent the last year and a half laboring for one of the worst teams in the league. He’s now in an organization that has a proven developmental track record with reclamation projects and has legitimate playoff aspirations. If anyone can get the best out of Vaughn, it’s Milwaukee. 

He wouldn’t be the only former top prospect to struggle with his first team before being traded and breaking out. Tyler Glasnow is one example, as was José Bautista. Carlos Gómez (Baseball America’s #52 overall prospect in 2007) underwhelmed with the Twins before truly breaking out as a Brewer. J.D. Martinez was more of a fringe top-100 prospect, but exploded after joining the Tigers and revamping his swing.

With a talented player, which Vaughn certainly is, sometimes all it takes is a small adjustment for things to finally click. Once that happens, their trade value skyrockets. Martinez and Glasnow were traded for a couple top prospects. Gomez was traded, along with Mike Fiers, for a package that included Brett Phillips (later traded for Mike Moustakas) and Josh Hader. 

Aaron Civale isn’t going to net you multiple top prospects. He probably isn’t going to turn into a frontline starter at 30 years old with his fourth team. Vaughn, if he looks like he’s “putting it all together”, might be able to get the Brewers an upgrade at shortstop or third base, albeit as one piece in a deal, rather than as a headliner.