What’s Eating Joey Wiemer?

Interesting that his bad mechanics in the minors got even worse with the big league club.

You got Two Hitting coaches in Milwaukee you think one would try to figure out a way to help his swing

2 hours ago, Jason Wang said:

Joey Wiemer has shown off great defense and even greater hair thus far in his rookie year, but if he wants to continue adding value to the Brewers lineup, he’ll have to make some major adjustments at the plate. 

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Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Ordinarily, a team wouldn't complain about 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from a rookie center fielder, even if that value comes mostly from elite defense. The Brewers aren't good enough at the traditional offense-first positions to accept subpar production in center, though. They need Joey Wiemer to get right.

So What, Exactly, Is The Problem?
If you take a look at his slash line of .212/.289/.375, you’ll see a player with below-average hitting abilities. While that is certainly true (he has an OPS+ of 81), it doesn’t really tell the whole story. Only by looking at his Baseball Savant page can we begin to unpack the mystery at hand.

 

When he’s able to make good contact, the ball is going places--often, places in the upper deck. Unfortunately, the ball doesn’t often go places other than the catcher’s glove. Wiemer has struggled immensely with swing-and-miss, preventing from putting more balls in play and making use of either his power or his considerable speed. He’s no Joey Gallo, but he still can’t seem to put his bat on pitches in the zone at a competitive rate. If you’ve watched him play this season, it’s pretty easy to see why. His swing is about as messy as the Chicago White Sox front office.

There’s a lot going on here. While there are slight variations, his swing usually follows these general steps:

1. He starts with the bat held high above his head, pretty typical stuff
2. As the pitcher begins his windup, Wiemer often drops the bat to his shoulder.
3. As the pitcher finishes his windup, Wiemer takes the bat off of his shoulder and drops it even lower, sometimes almost perpendicular to his body and below the beltline
4. As the pitch comes to the plate, he loads up in his back leg, lifts his front leg, and raises his bat again, splitting the back of his head to prepare his follow-through.

Within the span of roughly three seconds, Wiemer usually shifts his stance around four times and swings bat all over the place. This creates a lengthy, overly complex load. To his credit, despite the prolonged ritual, he’s been able to adjust his timing to create a positive run value against fastballs. However, this problem has gotten out of hand against breaking balls.

Here are his statistics against the three breaking balls he’s seen most frequently this season.

	Run Value	BA	wOBA	Whiff%	K%
Slider	-8	.160	.221	37.4	28.3
Curveball	-4	.217	.240	46.5	43.8
Sweeper	-5	.083	.144	34.0	32.0

The numbers aren’t pretty, and they point to a clear issue. After seeming to figure things out in June and posting an .849 OPS for the month, he’s regressed significantly, and his August has been abysmal, featuring a .556 OPS over 38 at-bats. This is likely the result of more robust scouting reports on him, and the steady diet of breaking balls opposing pitchers have begun force-feeding him.

How Did This Start?
A quick perusal of his minor league highlights from 2022 shows a much calmer swing at the plate. While it’s still noisy compared to average, he moves much less than he does now at the major-league level. Most notably, he doesn’t seem to drop his bat as low.

While we may never know for sure, one theory as to why he adopted this kooky practice could be that it was perceived as a necessary change to generate more power, leaning into his identity as a swing-first, ask-questions-later type of slugger. After clubbing six of his 13 homers in June, his hands seem to drop lower and lower to try and add more power, at the cost of more misses and more strikeouts.

Is There Hope?
The fact that this seemingly hasn’t been called out by the Brewers hitting staff as a possible issue is surprising, but it may be something the team is waiting to fix in the offseason. It’s a dramatic change, and with just a narrow lead over the rest of the NL Central, it’s admittedly risky to try to make any such tweaks now.

On the bright side, there is one glimmer of hope that makes me optimistic. The parts of the strike zone that correspond to where he whiffs most are also where he makes some of his best contact.

As a rookie, it's expected that his game is still unpolished. There's always room for improvement, and no one is perfect, but if Wiemer gets a little better at tracking breaking balls sooner and making contact in the middle part of the strike zone, he may just become one of the most dangerous hitters this side of the Mississippi.

 

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I agree with most of what you said. Imo, because of his swing & miss and K #'s, I have a strong feeling he'll be part of a trade during the off-season. 

I agree with the author, that it's something they're waiting to fix in the fall-winter. As long as he's quiet & waiting to address the ball as it's being released all the other stuff doesn't necessarily have to sink you, but in his case there's so damn much of it. It almost looks to me like it's gotten worse.

With Taylor hitting and Canha putting up good ABs, the avenue to playing time vs LHP might even dry up. But for me there's too much athleticism & ability there to write him out of the long-term plans.

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I agree with the author, that it's something they're waiting to fix in the fall-winter. As long as he's quiet & waiting to address the ball as it's being released all the other stuff doesn't necessarily have to sink you, but in his case there's so damn much of it. It almost looks to me like it's gotten worse.

With Taylor hitting and Canha putting up good ABs, the avenue to playing time vs LHP might even dry up. But for me there's too much athleticism & ability there to write him out of the long-term plans.

I can't think of a single top flight MLB hitter with all of the pre-swing movement that he has. Way too much.

What I don't understand is the risky part of changing his mechanics mid season . Start on it now , it can't get any worse ! 

5 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I agree with the author, that it's something they're waiting to fix in the fall-winter. As long as he's quiet & waiting to address the ball as it's being released all the other stuff doesn't necessarily have to sink you, but in his case there's so damn much of it. It almost looks to me like it's gotten worse.

With Taylor hitting and Canha putting up good ABs, the avenue to playing time vs LHP might even dry up. But for me there's too much athleticism & ability there to write him out of the long-term plans.

I don't know...I just remember Tony Gwynn basically saying he doesn't care about any of the stance or what happens until the pitch is delivered and he wants to see guys balanced in their load and their bat staying in the hitting zone.

Looks like he's doing that to me, but...I'm no hitting coach. I know EVERY time I watch a game with my Old Man I hear how much he hates Wiemer's stance(same with Weeks). 

The more movement, obviously the more you need to do in order to get your timing down.  

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't know...I just remember Tony Gwynn basically saying he doesn't care about any of the stance or what happens until the pitch is delivered and he wants to see guys balanced in their load and their bat staying in the hitting zone.

Looks like he's doing that to me, but...I'm no hitting coach. I know EVERY time I watch a game with my Old Man I hear how much he hates Wiemer's stance(same with Weeks). 

The more movement, obviously the more you need to do in order to get your timing down.  

I agree with Gwynns' philosophy re stance. With Wiemer there's just so much movement with the bat though, from the time he sets up to when he commits (or not) to swinging.

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned how, in his earlier days in the organization, there wasn't nearly as much movement. How he got from there to here, I don't know. But I think that's concerning. It kinda seems like with all the movement going on, he gives himself less time to make the decision, then attack. That's why balls he can pull with authority, he oftentimes doesn't. 

Just hoping he can get comfortable with something much simpler. At least there's no front leg-lift to wean him off of.

3 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned how, in his earlier days in the organization, there wasn't nearly as much movement. How he got from there to here, I don't know. But I think that's concerning. It kinda seems like with all the movement going on, he gives himself less time to make the decision, then attack. That's why balls I'm sure he can pull with authority; aren't.

They said it, but I didn't really see much evidence of it. Just a good swing on a FB in the minors and a bad swing on a breaking ball that fooled him in the Big leagues.

I'm not stating the premise is wrong. I just don't know that it's right. My untrained eye says if you slow it down, stop even the first one, a bad swing, at 3 seconds, or just as the pitch is delivered and he looked balanced, hands are coming through, he's not opening up...but I'm also not a hitting guru. 

A lot of moving parts makes being a consistent hitter tougher for most players. That seems obvious. The bat waggle and the big step work for some(Bonds, Sheff) and others struggle with it. I just don't know if Wiemer needs an overhaul or if he's just a young player with big tools who has had a tendency to adjust slowly to the next level and if that's what is happening here at the highest level. 

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

They said it, but I didn't really see much evidence of it. Just a good swing on a FB in the minors and a bad swing on a breaking ball that fooled him in the Big leagues.

 

I'm not stating the premise is wrong. I just don't know that it's right. My untrained eye says if you slow it down, stop even the first one, a bad swing, at 3 seconds, or just as the pitch is delivered and he looked balanced, hands are coming through, he's not opening up...but I'm also not a hitting guru. 

A lot of moving parts makes being a consistent hitter tougher for most players. That seems obvious. The bat waggle and the big step work for some(Bonds, Sheff) and others struggle with it. I just don't know if Wiemer needs an overhaul or if he's just a young player with big tools who has had a tendency to adjust slowly to the next level and if that's what is happening here at the highest level. 

 

I understand Big League hitters are a different situation but when I work with high school hitters My philosophy was..." The Further you start from the proper lanch point the more likely you are to never get there"

And I absolutely hate too much front foot travel because if you miss time your foot movement by even the slightest amount you have no way to get your foot back on the ground and trigger on an inside pitch.

Pitchers with variable delivery times and good change of pace can make life really miserable for high front leg lifts.

4 hours ago, yourout said:

 

And I absolutely hate too much front foot travel because if you miss time your foot movement by even the slightest amount you have no way to get your foot back on the ground and trigger on an inside pitch.

Pitchers with variable delivery times and good change of pace can make life really miserable for high front leg lifts.

A thousand times, yes. Fortunately that doesn't seem to be a big thing with Wiemer.