What's the Brewers Payroll Picture Heading Into the Offseason?

The state of the payroll will be fascinating going into 2025, with the Brewers in need of some reinforcement on the left side of the infield and a big trade likely at the back end of their bullpen. It’s unlikely that either Willy Adames or Devin Williams will be in Maryvale next spring, and they leave some big shoes to be filled. The Brewers may have the chops internally to maintain their bullpen strength, but the same cannot be said for prospects on the infield who are major-league ready. Oliver Dunn’s injury, Brock Wilken’s regression and Tyler Black’s defensive struggles all play into that need.

It would also be folly to expect that Rhys Hoskins doesn’t pick up his $18-million option for this season. A generally good gauge is whether or not you would want to pay a player that value based on their performance, if the answer is “not a chance in hell,” then the player is more likely to take it, given that other front offices will likely feel similarly. Hoskins provided -0.2 WAR on the season, struggled in the playoffs and had career worsts for strikeout rate, slugging and walk rate. He will be here in 2025, barring a miracle of Scott Boras hubris.

Even with Adames and Williams likely to leave, there will be upward pressure on the payroll, with programmed increases in the salaries of Jackson Chourio ($2 million), Freddy Peralta ($4 million), Brandon Woodruff ($12.5 million), and Aaron Ashby ($2 million) to factor in. There are also some big arbitration raises coming, especially for William Contreras and Aaron Civale. Overall, I’d envisage something along the lines of the situation below, although there is definitely room for argument around the margins.

They could cut from the roster above around the margins by removing Bryse Wilson and Jake Bauers for the likes of Craig Yoho and Ernesto Martinez Jr,, but outside of that, I can't see a whole lot of moves the Brewers would make to trim around the edges. Perhaps they'd cut Joel Payamps rather than pay him another arbitration award, but with his performances in the second half, that estimated $3.45 million is still relatively efficient--and MLB Trade Rumors predicts an even lower figure, at $2.8 million.

The total for the above 26-man roster comes to $115.46 million. The additional values coming through from the rest of the 40-man roster payments (along with deferred monies for Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun) will probably add around $5 million to this total, so all in all, this is a hefty enough payroll for this organization as it is.

Another issue to factor in is the Bally Sports contract, with the Diamond Sports Group looking to renegotiate their contract with the Brewers, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. The contract is currently worth $33 million to the Brewers organization for next year, and whether they move toward a league-centered, league-distributed model for broadcast revenue or take a reduced contract with Diamond, the end result will be some loss of revenue for the club, perhaps in the region of $10 million.

According to Cot's Contracts, the highest contractual commitments for the Brewers in a single season was in 2022, at $135.1 million. In 2023, that dropped to $133.6 million, before sagging to roughly $120 million in 2024.

Using $130 million as a benchmark and factoring in the likely loss of TV revenues, the Brewers estimated maximum payroll spend is $125 million for next year. Their current estimated costs by the budget above, is $120 million.

So the question then turns to whether or not the organization is willing to take a gamble. Would they extend themselves to the $140-million mark for a longer-term commitment to land the likes of an Alex Bregman at third base, as Matt Trueblood wrote yesterday? Or are they banking on someone filling the gaps defensively while gambling on health and form for Woodruff, Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio, to make up for the lost production from Adames? Do they see Garrett Mitchell, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick all taking further strides this season and push the chips in on their pre-arb talent? Heck, do they further experiment with Frelick to third base, after his defensive excellence in right field for 2024? 

The other side of this is, even if the Brewers are breaking even in terms of their basic financials (and they likely are turning some profit, although it's nowhere near as much as people believe once you add in overhead, management, minor-league staff/payments and other incidentals of a baseball club), the overall valuation of the club has gone up consistently year-over-year. That doesn't translate to cash in the bank, but it does allow Mark Attanasio (as the lead shareholder) to gamble every once in a while without serious financial repercussions. They could afford, for two to three years, a payroll of $160 million or more, given their stock valuation has increased by $400 million and change in the 2020s. Again, this isn't cash in the bank to pay players, but it does give some leverage to increasing the payroll if they feel the window with Yelich, Contreras and Chourio together could be key to playoff success with support around them. Doing so by investing $60-90 million over a three year span seems viable.

This offseason presents a host of questions for the Milwaukee Brewers, but based on recent history, it seems fair to expect there won’t be a big free agent signing--unless something drastic changes (e.g., a Hoskins opt out). With the revenue uncertainty and current contractual commitments, it just doesn’t seem as though they have the flexibility in their payroll to make a splash, unless they want to really go all-in. If they do spend, it likely won't be on a contract with a length greater than two years, given the strength of their farm system at the lower levels with Cooper Pratt, Jesus Made, Luis Pena and others as potential infield stars.

What do you think of the Brewers' payroll for next season? Do you think my estimations are off? Have they got room to make a big move? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!