What's With Jesse Winker?

While his exit velocities remained relatively consistent with his 2021 and career numbers, his launch angle increased sharply in 2022. As a result, he had fewer line drives, fewer ground balls, and more pop-ups. Let’s go even deeper, and look at how certain samples of batted balls performed differently given different average launch angles to see if our hypothesis is true.

First, let’s look at all of Winker’s balls that had a launch angle below this season’s average of 16.8 degrees.

Of the 177 pitches that were hit, Winker’s BABIP was .350, dominated by shallow singles along with a handful of doubles. It’s hard to get extra-base hits while hitting at an average angle of -6 degrees, but like most contact-focused players, Winker did get on base. Additionally, his average exit velocity of 89.1 mph on these pitches aligns almost perfectly with his career average.

Now let’s take a look at his batted balls that had a launch angle >16 degrees.

The number of plate appearances is roughly the same, but there’s a clear difference in BABIP and exit velocity here. Furthermore, his launch angle in this sample averages 41 degrees. Judging by the spray chart, many of his batted balls end up being routine pop-ups. While all 14 of last season’s home runs are included in this sample, further digging shows that the steepest launch angle that resulted in a home run was 38 degrees, still lower than the sample average. In fact, 130 pitches in this sample had a launch angle higher than 28 degrees and had a BABIP of just .109.

But what is the ideal launch angle? Like many things in the great sport of baseball, it depends. If you’re capable of launching baseballs into the upper deck, you might want to aim for a higher launch angle. That being said, shooting for a higher launch angle also typically results in more pop-ups and flyouts. 

A good example of this principle is 2022’s NL home run leader, Kyle Schwarber. He had a launch angle of 19.2 degrees and 46 home runs, but he also had a batting average of .218 and a BABIP of .240. 

Alternatively, if you don’t generate as much power and decide to be more of a contact hitter, you might opt for a lower launch angle, like 2022 NL batting title winner Jeff McNeil, who had an average launch angle of 12.8.

There are obvious exceptions to this rule, such as Mike Trout (average launch angle of 24.6 degrees and a BABIP of .323) and Aaron Judge (62 home runs with an average launch angle of 15.0), but those are typically due to players possessing generational talent that transcends the mortal limitations that hold back the rest of the league. 

I’ve seen a few other sources claiming that his struggles in Seattle were due to constantly being shifted around in the lineup, locker-room drama, and injury risk. While those are all potential contributors, the main driver that stands out to me from a statistical perspective is this increased launch angle. In addition to his exit velocity numbers remaining relatively consistent, his plate discipline was exceptional. Winker walked an astounding 15.4 percent of the time in 2022.  This means that he was still identifying good pitches to hit, just hitting them incorrectly. When Winker is going right, he will produce, with that discerning eye as the platform for it all. His newer, more vertically-inclined swing was, in my opinion, the primary culprit behind his Mariner mishaps.

While it’s unclear whether he’ll be seeking to readjust his swing back to its former glory, Winker is undoubtedly hoping for a return to form as he heads into free agency in 2024.