Why Splits, Not Projections, May Matter More For Three Brewers Pitchers In 2025

PECOTA has been particularly down on Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, and Bryan Hudson, leading some to think a late free-agent signing would be a smart move. However, the projections may not be the best predictor for that triumvirate's 2025 performance with the Brewers. Splits may matter more in these three cases. Let’s review each of the pitchers' most notable data points.

Aaron Ashby

Ashby missed all of 2023 with shoulder surgery and was recovering as the 2024 season started. He was clobbered in an April start and put together a decent start in June where he got no run support whatsoever. That led to what we'll call an "early-season" split of an 0-2 record with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.731 WHIP as a starter.

Later in the season, he found his footing as a multi-inning relief specialist – a role Josh Hader performed well in during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns for the Brewers. After being called up in late August, Ashby was dominant in 12 outings, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 0.763 WHIP and a 9.3 K/BB ratio, going as long as three innings out of the pen.

If the Brewers keep Ashby in the bullpen for 2025, the splits point to him being almost dominant in the multi-inning role. This would be very helpful when it comes to easing Brandon Woodruff back into the major league rotation, for starters (pun intended).

At $3.45 million, his contract won't be an anchor for the Brewers, who could stretch him out for the rotation in 2026 and 2027 before they have to make decisions on team options in 2028 and 2029, which will be for $9 million and $13.5 million, respectively.

Still, his 2024 splits as a reliever point to Ashby being much more valuable than PECOTA projects, especially if he aids in keeping Woodruff's workload low as the staff ace eases back into action.

DL Hall

Hall was intended to be a mainstay of the rotation in 2025. He struggled initially before landing on the injured list with a knee injury, posting a 7.71 ERA in four starts in March and April, with a 2.265 WHIP.

But after his return, he was a much different pitcher. In two starts in August, he gave up only one earned run in 11.2 innings, good for a 0.77 ERA. After that, he mostly worked from the bullpen, where he was generally dominant (minus struggles against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who hit him hard in one start and one relief appearance).

The Brewers have options with Hall in 2025. He could be used, like Ashby, as a multi-inning fireman, helping rest Woodruff or another Brewers starter coming back from injury (Robert Gasser being one possibility). Or, he could end up in the rotation, where his second-half ERA as a starter was a respectable 3.68, albeit in a small sample.

Hall will be cheap in 2025 and 2026 as a pre-arb player, so the Brewers can get plenty of value in this piece from the Corbin Burnes trade before it gets more dicey due to arbitration pay raises. His second-half splits should have Brewers fans expecting a much better performance than PECOTA projects, especially if he's willing to pitch in a swingman role.

Bryan Hudson

Hudson was acquired in a January 2024 trade for 2023 20th-round pick Justin Chambers, which, in a sense, made the pick a steal for the Crew. During the first three months of the season, he was dominant, posting a 4-0 record along with a 0.82 ERA and a 0.614 WHIP over 44 innings while striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings.

He had a rough patch in the first week of July before the All-Star break, suffering his only loss of the season and giving up four of the 12 earned runs he surrendered in all of 2024 in just three appearances.

After that, though, he returned to being solid, posting a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 innings over 11 appearances and notching two more wins, logging a WHIP of 0.638 while striking out 5.7 batters per nine innings. He was sent down to Triple-A Nashville in September after being placed on the injured list on July 27.

Hudson, a workhorse in the early part of the season, may have simply worn down. The 71 innings he pitched in 2024 between Milwaukee and Nashville were the most he’d posted since 2018, when he was a full-time starter in the Cubs' system before an injury-riddled 2019 campaign.

That said, while Hudson’s August numbers point to a pitcher who may not have been as dominant as he was in the first three months of the season, he was still was quite solid and dependable. Like Hall, he is under team control through 2029 and cheap through 2026. And like Hall and Ashby, Hudson is capable of going multiple innings at a time for the Crew, and PECOTA’s projections may be underestimating his ability to induce bad contact, something else the splits seem to show.

Do you think the splits of Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, and Bryan Hudson are a better predictor of their performance that PECOTA in 2025? Let us know in the comments below!