William Contreras Even Needs to Get More Air Under His Grounders

In parts of three seasons with Atlanta, William Contreras showed impressive power, but had some significant weaknesses, too. Most notably, he struck out quite a bit. He fanned in 28.3 percent of his plate appearances from 2020-22, putting a ceiling on his offensive utility despite his good batted-ball data and above-average walk rate. He was still a very good hitter for a catcher, but sustainable stardom seemed to depend on making contact more often.

There's great news on that front. This year, Contreras is whiffing dramatically less often than he has in the past. His contact rate on swings, especially within the zone, is up, but just as importantly, he's cut down the frequency with which he chases pitches outside the zone. That means taking more balls and giving pitchers fewer cheap strikes, and it's brought Contreras's strikeout rate all the way down to 18.0 percent. He's taken his greatest offensive shortcoming and turned it into a strength. He's now better than average by the same distance as that by which he was previously worse.

Yet, overall, his production is down this year, relative to 2022. In fact, after an 0-5 showing in Wednesday night's loss, he's hitting just .246/.343/.377, good for a 102 wRC+. Given the improvements he's made as a receiver, anything like an average overall line is valuable, but the dynamism and danger Contreras seemed poised to add to the Milwaukee lineup has yet to materialize.

The big-picture problem is precisely the one that was on display during his frustrating game Wednesday: he's hitting way too many ground balls. That was already the other flaw in his offensive profile, even in 2022, but it's gotten even worse in 2023. Contreras's average launch angle has sagged to a career-low mark of under 4 degrees, and 56 percent of his batted balls have been grounders.

Even that understates the problem. Contreras isn't just hitting grounders; he's hitting the worst kind of them. Back in early 2020, at Baseball Prospectus, I wrote about the importance of launch angle even within the the context of ground balls. As one would intuit, there's a difference between pounding the ball straight into the dirt in front of home plate and hitting a slanting one-hopper, something almost akin to a line drive. A grounder with a launch angle anywhere north of -8 degrees has a legitimate chance to be a hit, if it's hit fairly hard. As one would also guess, this is even more true now than when I first investigated the question, thanks to the limitations on defensive positioning in place this year.

Contreras doesn't avail himself of those odds, though. Of the 274 hitters who had hit at least 25 ground balls this year entering Wednesday, he had hit fewer of his grounders in the most valuable launch-angle bracket (north of -5 degrees) than 245. On Wednesday night, that only got worse, as his three grounders averaged -31 degrees off the bat. For the season, his average launch angle on grounders is -16.6 degrees, which sis similarly close to the basement of the league.

Other Brewers rate even worse in this regard, but for more obvious reasons. Both Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer hit some of the lowest grounders (and the fewest high-trajectory, high-expected value ones) in the league. In each case, though, that's explainable. These are rookies, pressed into more regular service than the team would have anticipated before the season, thanks to the injuries to Luis Urias, Tyrone Taylor, and Garrett Mitchell. They're players with significant strikeout issues, meaning that it's worthwhile--even necessary--for them to make contact whenever possible, at whatever cost. They also have plus speed, meaning that some of those balls hammered right into the ground are more likely to turn into hits (or to allow them to reach on an error or fielder's choice) than they are for a player like Contreras, who runs like the catcher he is.

One way or another, Contreras has to start elevating the ball more often, or he's not going to have the offensive upside he and the team envisioned. He needs to hit fewer grounders, and when he does hit grounders, they need to be more like line drives. He's generating sufficient exit velocity, but trading too much loft and damage potential for his newfound contact skills. The Brewers lineup needs more from him than he's provided, and this is where he can close the gap.