Should the Milwaukee Brewers Extend William Contreras, or Trade Him?

This is a very tough question for the Crew, and there are strong arguments on both sides. For 2024, William Contreras still comes cheap in his last pre-arbitration year, costing less than $1 million and being the third-best catcher in MLB, according to Just Baseball. Even with the Brewers signing Gary Sánchez, the move isn’t likely to affect Contreras as much as it will Jeferson Quero (who seems likely to spend the bulk of 2024 in Nashville) and Eric Haase (who may find himself a roster casualty).

In 2025 and beyond, though, the Crew will need to make a decision, especially with the highly-touted Quero pressing his case. Let’s look over the case for each long-term course of action.

The Case For Extending Contreras
Why should the Crew think about extending Contreras? For starters, there is his proven track record. In his two full MLB seasons, he has posted an .840 OPS, notched an All-Star game appearance, won a Silver Slugger, and garnered MVP votes. His defense, once considered a weakness, has been taken up a notch by the Crew’s coaching staff. That sort of known quantity is a good thing, and an advantage over Quero.

Would it make sense to give Contreras an extension? He is 26 years old now, and not due for free agency until after the 2027 season, when he turns 30. The Brewers could, in theory, offer him a six-year, $75-million contract, buying out two years of free agency and avoiding arbitration, and they could lock down a solid contributor at catcher and designated hitter through 2029. That would have him in Milwaukee until he is 32, at which point he would arguably have topped Jonathan Lucroy as the best catcher in Brewers history.

While the deal would be expensive, locking Contreras up now probably would not be a financial backbreaker for the team, especially after the Corbin Burnes trade and the potential departure of Willy Adames, whether by trade or via free agency. In addition, securing the services of Contreras could give the Brewers options through the 2020s. They could have Contreras team up with Quero starting in 2025 and put forth one of the best catching tandems in MLB. Locking up Contreras could also allow the Brewers to deal Quero to solidify another part of the team.

In short, the case for keeping Contreras around is pretty straightforward. That said, it's not airtight, and not without an alternative.

The Case For Dealing Contreras
Here’s the case for dealing Contreras: Extending him would likely hinge on his willingness to sign a somewhat team-friendly deal and postpone his free agency to after his age-32 season. He may not want to do so. Consider the case of former Brewer Yasmani Grandal, who was able to sign a four-year, $73-million deal following his age 30 season. Signing the deal proposed above would bring down the ceiling on Contreras's career earnings, though it would also set a very high floor. Given the uncertainty caused by the bankruptcy of the Bally Sports regional networks, a Contreras extension could get too rich for the Crew’s blood.

In addition, there is the presence of Quero, whom the Brewers might be more likely to convince to accept a team-friendly extension along the lines of Jackson Chourio’s, not to mention other talented prospects at catcher. The Brewers may like having Contreras, but with the depth in their minor-league system, and the team’s demonstrated ability to coach up bat-first catchers, dealing Contreras (while painful) won’t be fatal to the team’s hopes for solid contribution from catcher in the long term,, or arguably even the short term (see the signing of Sánchez).

Contreras, as a top MLB catcher with multiple years of team control, could fetch an impressive haul for the Brewers. For instance, in a hypothetical deal with the Red Sox, validated by Baseball Trade Values, the Brewers would receive outfielder Roman Anthony, right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez, infielder Yoeilin Cespedes, and left-handed pitcher Brandon Walter in exchange for Contreras. While some of the position prospects return (Anthony and Cespedes) might be years out, Walter and Gonzalez could bolster the Crew’s pitching staff in 2024.

Another option might be to plus up a Brice Turang package previously suggested, sending Turang and Contreras to the Marlins for infielders Xavier Edwards and Jacob Berry, pitchers Braxton Garrett and Thomas White, and Miami’s Competitive Balance B pick, a deal also validated by Baseball Trade Values. Again, this gives the Brewers immediate rotation help in 2024 in Garrett (who is controlled through 2028). Edwards gives the Brewers long-term help at second (allowing the Crew to move Joey Ortiz to shortstop if Adames is dealt), and the Brewers get not just two more prospects, but another extra pick in the 2024 MLB draft.

The potential return could be huge for the Crew. That, in a nutshell, is the case for a trade.

Overview
In one sense, the Brewers really can’t go wrong with Contreras. If they extend him now, they lock down catcher for a long time. Dealing him now or in the 2024-2025 offseason has the potential to bring in a historic haul to help the Crew in the present and future. What the Brewers do is, in a sense, really up to Contreras at this point.

What would you do with Contreras, Quero, and the catcher position for the Brewers? Do either of these big trade possibilities entice you? Join the conversation below.