Willy Adames's Defense Has Slipped, and It's Becoming a Concern

Willy Adames is enjoying his best offensive season since his inaugural campaign as a Brewer. After a strong series in Atlanta as part of his team’s three-game drubbing of the Braves, Adames is slashing .252/.335/.452, with 20 home runs, 27 doubles, and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.46) of his career. His 119 wRC+ is his highest since 2021.

It’s been the opposite story on the other side of the ball. In addition to his power output, Adames has been indispensable to the Brewers over the years for his prowess in the field. According to FanGraphs, only Dansby Swanson provided more defensive value for his team at shortstop across the 2022 and 2023 seasons, combined.

That’s changed in 2024. Adames enters Friday with -7 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.2 Ultimate Zone Rating runs, 0 Defensive Runs Prevented, and a Fielding Run Value of 3.

It’s no surprise those metrics, all from different sabermetric websites, vary in their perception of Adames’s defense. Baseball has embraced quantitative evaluation, but the quality and reliability of defensive metrics lag behind those for hitting, pitching, and baserunning.

There’s a case for DRS as the most nuanced, though, particularly for evaluating infielders. It relies on video scouting and weighs what those scouts deem “Good Fielding Plays” and “Defensive Misplays” based on a set of criteria.

The result is a metric that features some human error but also captures at least some of the intricacies of infield defense. A video scout can see the difficulty and added value of fielding a ground ball that took a tough hop, making a successful throw when the fielder’s momentum is carrying him in the opposite direction, or executing a barehanded play on a soft roller. They can also identify lackluster fundamentals, such as attacking a ball poorly, bobbling it, or failing to cover a base for a potential double-play turn.

Each metric paints a slightly different picture of Adames’s defensive value, but they all agree he has taken a step back. He finished last year with 8 DRS, 5.9 UZR runs, 16.7 DRP, and an FRV of 12.

One of the biggest reasons for the downturn may be that Adames is approaching ground balls in a way that looks less fundamentally sound than in years past.

Errors are a rudimentary and imperfect way to measure defense, but it’s noteworthy that Adames has already been charged with six fielding errors this year. That’s his highest total in a season since making eight in 2021, a figure he’s on pace to beat with 48 games left to play. It’s also the first season since 2021 in which he’s committed more fielding errors than throwing errors.

Five of those six misplays have happened since July 6, with the latest occurring in Thursday’s series finale in Atlanta. There have also been plays scored as hits that Adames has made in the past, including a Miguel Amaya grounder that ate him up in Chicago a few weeks ago.

Adames has been unable to field these balls cleanly because he’s not attacking them. Take, for instance, this error against the Pirates in early July at the onset of his defensive slump:

Adames was shaded toward second base on this play, and Jack Suwinski bounced one that way. Instead of charging the ball and getting behind it, he stayed back and played it stiff and flat-footed to his left. This left him unable to handle the hop, which seemed longer than he anticipated.

The following inning, Adames stayed back on an even more routine grounder, and it almost allowed Jared Triolo to leg out an infield single.

He made a similar mistake on an error against the Braves at home. Another flat-footed stab at the ball was unsuccessful.

In several instances, it has looked like Adames isn’t reading the ball off the bat as well as he has in the past. In addition to causing more perceptible misplays, it may also be cutting into his range. A delayed first step makes it tougher to reach a grounder, as does running in or perpendicular to one in the hole instead of angling back to buy more time. DRS is presumably dinging him in those two areas.

Whatever the cause of his worsened reads and reactions, both parties would benefit from resolving it.

Adames’s defense is integral to the Brewers’ run-prevention strategy. They need their rangy shortstop to make the routine plays and scoop up balls in the hole. His defensive performance could also impact his impending free agency. Adames can secure a better deal on the open market by proving he’s still a premium defender at short, not a diminishing one who may have to slide to third base in a few years.

The imperfections of defensive metrics make it difficult to pinpoint how much worse Adames’s glovework has gotten, but it has undoubtedly declined over the last few months. The sooner he and the Brewers can identify and correct the issue, the better.