With a Defense Like This, Who Needs an Offense?

The Royals put 19 balls in play against the combination of Corbin Burnes, Joel Payamps, Peter Strzelecki, and Elvis Peguero. Only two of those turned into hits, That brought opponents' batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against the Brewers down to .270 for the season. Only the Rays and Tigers are yielding lower ones. With the great range of Willy Adames, Brice Turang, and Joey Wiemer up the middle, the Brewers are making it harder to find hits than almost anyone in baseball.

The pitchers play a role in that, of course. Milwaukee's staff has been good at limiting hard contact over the last few years, and that continues thus far in 2023. Still, most of the credit has to go to the fielders themselves. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Brewers lead MLB with their 27 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Only the Astros and Cubs match them for DRS at the three up-the-middle positions, and if we add the catchers to that mix, not even those two teams can hang with them. 

It's terrific to have that kind of a security blanket for the manager and coaching staff. It's great that pitchers can throw with such conviction, knowing their fielders will have their back even if the batter makes solid contact. Team defense has been a separator for the truly great teams of the last decade or so, and the Brewers have that box checked.

That fact does pressurize every decision the team makes about its below-average offense, however. About a week ago, I wrote that Turang needed to turn his offensive campaign around in order to guarantee his playing time and his place on the parent club. He's done just that, and every week that he survives at the plate makes him more entrenched at second base, where his glovework has been brilliant. However, that closes off one more position where the team might need to try to find some punch. With Turang and Wiemer in the lineup, the team can't afford to get so little production from bat-first veterans like Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker.

Even Brian Anderson must come under some scrutiny. He's been an above-average hitter, according to OPS+, with a respectable line of .246/.324/.415. However, he's been part of the weak spot in the defensive phalanx at third base. His underlying offensive stats are also less impressive, suggesting that his slash line is likely to continue its sag.

Because of the lack of early separation or clarity in the National League playoff mosh pit, the team doesn't have to act rashly. They can, and will, wait for Luis Urias to return from his hamstring injury, barring any setbacks. They can wait to see how the trade market develops, because right now, they're in first place in the NL Central. There's no reason to desperately lurch after offensive help before they have some certainty about how much of that help they really need, or at which positions. Owen Miller's (predictable) progress at the plate gives them another option about which they can continue to gather information for at least another month. 

Ultimately, if this team wants to win the World Series, it has to hit better than it has so far. Thanks to their sparkling defense, though, they don't have to hit that much better, and some of their biggest improvements could well come from within. If they get Urias back, or are able to prepare Sal Frelick or Jackson Chourio for meaningful big-league roles; if Tyler Black gets a bump to Nashville and continues to own the strike zone the way he has in Biloxi; or if Luke Voit, Yelich, Anderson, and Tyrone Taylor start hitting the way they can, then the Brewers will score plenty of runs. They have no plausible path to being an elite offense, but they have Corbin Burnes (who is rounding into form, at long last), Freddy Peralta, the possibility of a midseason return from Brandon Woodruff, and an airtight bullpen. All of that is supported by the best defense in baseball, which means that an elite offense would feel a bit like gilding the lily, anyway.