With More Aggression, Jake Bauers Could Be Powering the Brewers' Offense

After a particularly depressing series against the Yankees, I wrote a satirical piece about Jake Bauers that slightly embellished his accomplishments as a player, as a way of coping with the trauma of being outscored 36-14 in three games. Through a more objective lens, one can point out that Bauers is not exactly what comes to mind when thinking of who can step up to get the Brewers out of their current slump. He has been below replacement in every year of his big-league career, except for his rookie campaign (when he amassed just 0.5 rWAR). It’s hard to be much better than that, when you’re a first baseman with a career 83 OPS+ and average defensive abilities.

But this year feels different, and not just because he still has a perfect 0.00 ERA over his four appearances out of the bullpen. Across an admittedly small sample of just 62 plate appearances, he’s slashing .288/.373/.508, for an OPS+ of 145—the highest mark of any player on the team. He kept the exceptional walk rate from last year, but is combining it with a Barrel rate of nearly 20% and a chase rate of just 23.4%. In other words, he’s making good swing decisions and has great quality of contact.

That would be the assumption you'd make if you went to his Baseball Savant page and refused to scroll down or click anything. If you take a peek under the hood, you'll find that there's quite a bit to fix. Throughout his career, Bauers has had an issue with swinging and missing. Last year, he whiffed almost 30% of the time, which was a big contributor to his crippling 34.1% strikeout rate. This year, it’s even worse, with a 36.4% whiff and 37.1% strikeout rate. One might ask how a player can have an elite chase rate and still have bottom decile strikeout and whiff rates. The reason is clear: they don't swing at strikes nearly enough.

So far, Bauers is swinging just 42.1% of the time, his lowest rate since 2019. Even worse, his zone swing rate of 58.9% is also the lowest it has been in his career. Essentially, he’s very passive at the plate, even when he’s given the chance to do some real damage. His meatball swing rate (a very scientific metric, I know) is just 72.7%, meaning that he’s keeping the bat on his shoulder for over one in four grooved pitches, right down the middle. As for the whiff aspect, it may be a result of reduced confidence in certain parts of the strike zone. It’s definitely not a symptom of swinging at bad pitches. Let’s do some digging as to what his swing/take profile looks like.

As we can see, he’s confidently taking swings at pitches inside and in the middle of the zone. The outside is where the timidity really comes in; he’s swinging at fewer than half the pitches he gets in those areas. If we take a look at what happens when he does swing, we see a similar distribution of blue and red.

Okay, so let’s assume he threw caution to the wind and let his hands go just a little bit. What would happen? Well, assuming the thesis of this entire article isn’t predicated solely on an anomalous set of 62 plate appearances, we’d probably see a lot of good contact. As mentioned earlier, his barrel rate is nearly 20%, and when we break that down by swings and parts of the strike zone, we see that when he does decide to go for a pitch, he’s usually hitting it pretty well.

Given this information, it seems like Bauers is only operating at partial strength, even with an .881 OPS. If he were to take a few more risks and trust in his own ability to differentiate between balls and strikes, we could finally see a breakout after six years in the majors.

Aside from his lack of enthusiasm for taking hacks, another problem Bauers is facing is accessibility to playing time. Fellow first baseman Rhys Hoskins has been having a good year himself, posting a 123 OPS+ over a much more robust 149 plate appearances. However, it seems that the Brewers are making a concerted effort to get Bauers into the lineup more often; he has been making far more appearances in the outfield than he did last year. In fact, he has played more innings in the outfield (67 ⅓ innings) than he has first base (56) thus far. This team needs power, anywhere they can get it. Bauers is looking like a possible source, so they're giving him a chance to prove it.

It has been a disappointing season for Milwaukee, to say the least. The postseason odds are trending in wrong direction and it’s tempting to throw in the towel now and just wait for 2026 to roll around. However, the Brewers are just four games behind in the Central, and there’s still plenty of baseball to be played. Could Jake Bauers play an ultimately pivotal role in bringing the Crew back to the postseason? Maybe, but he’ll have to take a swing or two first.