gregmag

Braun is doing the only smart thing he could do: keeping his head down and producing. The last thing he wants right now is attention. If he can just put up Ryan Braun numbers, people will eventually lose interest in the juicing story. Lucroy has turned into a wonderful player. He just constantly finds ways to help his team win. The ten-pitch AB to start the rally on Saturday, going 2b to 3b on the fly ball Sunday. That's on top of great frontline numbers. He and Gomez have to be mortal locks for the ASG. Beyond that, I think we'll get at least one of Lohse, Rodriguez, and Smith. We are, after all, the second-best team in the league.

I've been wondering if the Brewers might end up in both buyer and seller mode this July. Assuming the pitchers stay healthy, they actually have an excess of rotation guys. Maybe they hope Estrada puts together a couple of good starts, so that they can then flip him for a prospect. I wouldn't expect a great return, but we got Delmonico for two months of Rodriguez, and Estrada pitching up to his track record (assuming he can do that) has more value than Rodriguez did at the time of that deal. Make that deal and it fortifies our system as we look to trade for a bat or two. I know contending teams never do stuff like this, because teams avoid risk when they're winning. But if phnxcrew's premise is right, which I think it is, you would have a hard time second-guessing an Estrada deal. EDIT: Now I see there's a whole thread about the selling contender idea. Story of my life -- occasional interesting thoughts, always a day late.

I am absolutely with you on the last paragraph. We are a less talented team than probably 6 or 7 teams in the NL. So we're going to have to do things better and we're going to have to have some players play beyond expectations. But I just totally, totally disagree with the bolded part. First, Garza is NOT our worst starting pitcher. That honor belongs to Marco Estrada. Estrada has a 5.43 FIP, Garza has a 3.86. Garza is not pitching as well as he could, but he's historically been a very good pitcher. Estrada has a .240 BABIP, Garza a .297. And of course Estrada leads the team in HR's. But this argument that he didn't take Garza out because he has these set roles in the BP have been dis-proven time and time again(including tonight). Your veteran pitcher who's pitched in big games and has been a very good pitcher throughout his career was still throwing well. Segura had a costly error and I agree, you still have to get out of the mess. Garza didn't. That's on him. But this is what I'm talking about with regard to how managers just cannot win. You trust your proven starter and he gives up the lead, you're an idiot for taking him out. You consistently yank them early and you're stressing the BP. I had no problem giving Garza one more hitter, especially when it was the #8 hitter in the lineup. And Roenicke has used his relievers in so many different situations this year and been very unconventional(relative to the most managers) that I don't see how you could even begin to argue that his thought process had anything to do with not bringing Smith in because he's the 8th inning guy and it was only the 7th inning. Smith has 11 appearances in the 7th inning this year and 16 in the 8th. So he's used him whenever he's needed him. This team has the least established "8th inning guy," or "7th inning guy," or literally any Brewers team I've seen in the last 15 years. The ONLY difference is some of those teams had pens so bad that nobody could keep their job as the SU man. Roenicke has said he has several guys he's confident going to in SU situations. Henderson when healthy, Smith, Thornburg, and Kintlzer, and we're going to need all 4 by the end of the year. Henderson coming back healthy would be a big boost, hopefully by the end of June. For the record, I'm not "whitewashing," anything. I simply find it absurd that RR is costing us a shot at the playoffs and I think there is a lot of knee jerk type reactions to relatively routine He extols Falu, a bad hitter, because Falu doesn't strike out. Hmmm . . . Why is it patently moronic again to fetishize bad hitters who make contact? Does Falu's game-ending double play ring any bells? This one...I don't even know what to do with. When did he "fetishize," Falu? I'm just going to assume you're using "fetish," in this instance to mean have an irrational or over the top commitment to a player as opposed to other definitions. Falu has TWO plate appearances and literally BOTH times he was the LAST guy to get an at bat. So I would argue there is absolutely zero evidence that he has some strong commitment to Falu. Could you show me where he was signing the praises of Falu? Who incidentally has historically been a pretty good hitter for average. One double play is so irrelevant in the large scheme, ESPECIALLY given the fact that his only other choice would have been to bring in a pitcher, I don't know what it has to do with anything. The point about Falu is pretty simple. RR said he valued Falu offensively because he can make contact. Nothing else; just that he can make contact. I think that's fairly obviously a stupid reason to value a hitter. I'm not going to try to out-snark you here, because I know when I'm beaten, but I think my point is fairly simple. If you think I'm wrong, and you feel like explaining why it makes sense to promote and rely on a hitter who can do nothing other than not strike out, that's fine. You say that my complaint about the Garza decision is invalid because I'd complain just as much if RR brought in a reliever there and he failed. Actually, I wouldn't. You made that up, pulled it out of your butt, and pinned it on me. I really, truly, desperately wanted RR to pull Garza at that point. You don't just get to assert whatever the hell you feel like asserting, posit that some people think your assertion is too hot while other people think it's too cold, and conclude based on that variety of imagined objections that you're obviously right, let alone that a particular person with a distinct objection to your view is obviously wrong. That's exactly the kind of whitewash I was talking about.

Who, on the other hand, is the stiff I heard tonight, solo play-by-play guy, sounds like maybe an older white dude? Actually what he sounds is nearly catatonic. I don't think I've ever heard an announcer call plays on quaaludes before, but I really hope for his sake that's what was happening here.

I give up. Baseball has beaten my brain.

Wasn't I just saying that RR is a godlike genius?

"We live in the best of all possible worlds." Having your luck even out . . . that just happens. Machado snags that Reynolds bullet tonight? Agonizing, but it happens. You can't ask for a better chance than that. You can ask for your manager to avoid stupid mistakes, especially of the epidemic fashion. And yes, if we win 90 games and miss the playoffs, with this many pivotal mental errors in one stretch in late May? Call me ungrateful, but I'll consider that a blown opportunity.

I don't mind perspective, and I agree that RR has made some excellent decisions this year. But I'll respond to some of the condescending pushback above by wondering why some posters here will forgive this manager absolutely everything, completely whitewashing his many mistakes. He extols Falu, a bad hitter, because Falu doesn't strike out. Hmmm . . . Why is it patently moronic again to fetishize bad hitters who make contact? Does Falu's game-ending double play ring any bells? How about tonight's choke-fest? Garza, our worst starting pitcher by a considerable margin, is over 100 pitches in the 7th. His shortstop screws up a dp ball. RR visits the mound. Does he pull his pitcher? No, because he has his Eighth Inning Guy warming up in the pen, and this is only the seventh inning! My goodness -- you have to leave your starter in! It's not like you have other relief pitchers on your payroll. Yes, other teams make mistakes too, and we do a lot of things well. But to make the playoffs, especially over a more talented team, you have to meet a higher standard. You get to lose some games, but I'm pretty sure you don't get to projectile vomit four games in just over a week. We'll see. If we still make the postseason, then I'll happily confess to overreacting.

That's three games in a week lost to brain farts. I don't think we come back from that.

Tuned in my first Brewer radio game in a while, didn't know who I was hearing, liked him a lot. Smart guy, seems to have a good sense for what to talk about. Glad to have him back.

Fantastic job, RMS! Somehow I missed that this was happening; sorry not to have done my part. I agree with Igor's general sense of the system. In particular, we're suddenly swimming in arms worth talking about, which is all kinds of great. You also have to love Coulter and our BC position guys, many of whom should benefit from getting out of the FSL (even though they're dropping like flies right now). Overall a lot more guys have blossomed this year than crashed. The only top guys who seem marginal to me are Morris, who needs to replace Overbay soon if he's going to matter in this organization, and Haniger, who isn't young and is doing nothing encouraging. I don't understand Taylor Green's career. I just don't get it.

Either way, that plus RR's meltdown in Atlanta May make two games on this trip lost to idiocy.

Who was stupid there -- Gomez, trying to be aggressive, or Braun, trotting in to score like he had nowhere to be?

I don't like the argument that bench guys always suck, so don't worry that ours suck. That's an opportunity to get a comparative advantage. There's also a difference between mediocre and awful. Scooter has been pretty mediocre. I don't think he'll be awful. Platooning him with Weeks has generated decent production. Not a problem. Overbay, OTOH, has been horrific. This isn't new, either; he's been terrible for a while. I have no illusions about Hunter Morris, but it would almost be impossible for him to be worse. I like the idea of platooning Gindl and Davis. The problem is that Gindl really play much cf. You need somebody around who can. Maybe that's the reason you keep Herrera over Bianchi, then bring up Green in place of Schafer. Gindl becomes your backup corner of and third cf; Herrera is your 5th of / 2nd cf / backup middle infielder; Green backs up corner if and in a pinch at 2b. OUT: Overbay, Schafer, Bianchi IN: Morris, Gindl, Green Each of those three moves replaces a horrible hitter with a poor-to-decent hitter. You lose some positional flexibility, but that's why you keep Herrera around. If somebody gets hurt, then you bring back Schafer or Bianchi as needed. I'm sure I'm forgetting something about why this is a bad idea. I'd keep Wang. I haven't heard a really sound argument about why stashing him in the bp is hurting us. That said, I would definitely use the dl however we could.

Seriously, this year has been a first-round redemption party, with Bradley, Coulter, Jungmann to some extent, and even Jeffress back and contributing a bit. Also, we suddenly have the arms to swing some trades if we don't crash and burn before July. What pitching, up and down the system!

Gee, do you think maybe Josh Prince is the Southern League player of the week?

Just to throw this out there, I still think the Cardinals are favorites to win the division. They're a deep, solid team with excellent frontline pitching. However, I think we sometimes let Cardinals mojo freak us out too much. They aren't a super team. In terms of present value, I don't think any hitter on their team touches Braun or Gomez. (Molina's in that class as an overall player, but Lucroy isn't far behind him.) No one in their lineup truly scares you. Also, the back of the Brewers' rotation is in much better shape. All that said, we've been insanely lucky. Look at today's game. The Cubs gift-wrapped half of our meager run total, and K-Rod once again had nothing. Only Lohse and the Cubs' defense saved us, and a better lineup wouldn't have let Lohse up off the mat. OTOH, three of our four best hitters were out. We get two of them back tomorrow, which means we shouldn't need this kind of luck. That's good, because we can't rely on it.

I understand your broader point, and I like Nelson a lot. But there's one very basic problem with your argument here. Any fool can fail at the major league level. Only a few people can succeed at the major league level. That, I think, is why LouisEly's argument above is so important. If we conclude, because of Fiers' bad stretch, that his good stretch is a mirage -- if he only had success because hitters hadn't seen him twice -- then it makes sense to discount his success. Otherwise, I think Fiers pitched enough dominant innings that we should consider him a mid-rotation MLB starter. I think that's what he is. As for the assertion made elsewhere above (I won't call it an argument, because it's characteristically proclaimed as fact, like anyone who disagrees is just stupid) that Thornburg is simply more talented than Fiers, I guess it depends on what you mean by talent. Talent, for a pitcher, seems to me to involve something like a combination of velocity, movement, command, pitch assortment, stamina, and mental makeup, not necessarily in that order. After some number of innings, results conclusively prove talent, because the only object of a pitcher's talent is to get hitters out. Neither Fiers nor Thornburg has thrown that many innings yet. For now, Thornburg wins on velocity and Fiers wins on command. The rest looks to me like it's still up for grabs.

Does anybody actually think an unplanned, in-season position switch/addition from 2b to of -- for a guy whose notorious problem at 2b has been diminished range -- is a good idea? Can anyone think of a time when a team has made such a switch successfully? Because people keep insisting on talking about this situation like Weeks was selfish, and I haven't heard anyone explain why Weeks wasn't just being smarter than his manager. BTW, he can still hit.

I think the last two posts draw a reasonable line between some excesses in both directions above. I'll just add three things in the optimistic direction. First, we are unusually deep in MLB-quality pitching. None of our starters has been lights out; all but Garza have been reliable, and Garza hasn't been awful. If Gallardo and Peralta went down tomorrow, we'd be in good shape with Nelson and Fiers. That's our best marginal asset right now. Second, our 1b were so bad last year that the position will be an improvement whatever we do. Plus it's the easiest position for finding replacement-level talent via trade or waivers. It's a serious weakness, and it could hurt us, but it's a better weakness to have than some others. Third, I'm a believer in Davis. I put a fair amount of stock in minor league numbers, and Davis in the minors did nothing but hit. He made the necessary adjustments at every level, and I think he can do it here. He may also be a guy who needs some time to get going. Anyway, I think he'll lift the offense some before all is said and done.

I prefer to focus on the fact that the Cards needed 12 innings to regain the upper hand and restore their honor against the worst team in the division. A big part of me still just assumes they'll win the pennant in a walk, but this is fun for now.

Almost every team needs seven starting pitchers in the course of the year. I think having Fiers and Nelson in our pocket is our secret weapon. We have no star let alone superstar SP, but we have seven guys whom I think we could comfortably throw at anybody. As to whether Fiers is a AAAA guy . . . I'm resistant. Then again, I'm (more than) old enough to remember Ben Hendrickson. However, Fiers has shown that he can at least sometimes get MLB hitters out, and he's making AAA hitters cry in a hitters' league. Hendrickson wasn't *that* good. Has any AAAA guy ever put up numbers like Fiers? That's not a throwdown question; I'm really wondering.

Am I the only person here who hadn't noticed before now that Cleveland this season has managed to amass maybe the most insanely great collection of former Brewers cult / controversy favorites in MLB history? Michael Brantley, having signed what looked like a somewhat generous contract in the offseason, suddenly has an ISO over .200 and leads the team in pretty much every offensive category. John Axford has pitched himself into and out of the closer's role. Nyjer Morgan. (Okay, aside from the simple, glorious fact of his existence, my favorite Nyjer thing is that he has somehow drawn seven walks in about 50 PA.) Finally, and perhaps best of all: Cleveland called up George Kottaras a few days ago. He got into one game, in which he homered twice and walked. Cleveland promptly DFA'd him, and he has cleared waivers. What can Cleveland do for an encore? Mat Gamel? Russell Branyan? Brooks Kieschnick?

Very weird to see Medlen blow a save with 2.0 hitless innings of work. I get how it happened; it's just unusual. Speaking of unusual, Josh Prince is putting up one of the weirdest season lines I've seen in a while. A .230 BA and a .400 secondary average? Not routine, but it happens. It rarely happens, however, when a guy has virtually no power (today notwithstanding). Nick Ramirez and Hunter Morris are having shockingly similar years. Only way Nick transcends Hunter to give us something useful is if he can keep inching up the walk rate while holding onto the BA and power. I don't see that happening. At least David Denson won't be as old as Hunter Morris is now for, like, 35 years.

I agree that we have to ride out the waves of a long season, although how that works emotionally for different people is complicated. I also agree that this team has some serious strengths that have gotten us this far. However, I think the recent cold snap also reflects real weaknesses. First, this team has poor depth among position players. Our bench basically can't hit a lick, and what's behind our bench (e.g., Herrera) is a lot worse. Second, even our regular lineup is bad at getting on base. We have zero guys on the roster who take a lot of walks. We're fine if everybody is healthy and hits .275 as a team and we hit a bunch of home runs. But if any of those three things stops being true, we're going to have trouble scoring. We can still win the division if the Cardinals keep scuffling, because our pitching is solid and deep. But it will be a lot easier if we can find some more offense, either by heating up guys we have or by trade at some point.