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gregmag

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Everything posted by gregmag

  1. gregmag
    That "diagnosis du jour / count on one hand" line from the doctor above reflects a strong opinion that a great many people would dispute. I'm just an ordinary guy, and I know more than a few people who have gotten medication for ADHD. The implication of that story that prescribing ADHD drugs is junk medicine reflects a serious bias. Maybe it's ultimately correct, but don't take it at face value.
  2. gregmag
    I'm really glad he got to see a lot of his work blossom this past year -- Davis and Gennett establishing themselves, Jeffress coming back and earning a real role, and especially Fiers coming back strong. There was more good than bad news this year on the player development front, and he had a final draft that pretty much everybody loved. My opinion of him improved over the past year, which makes it especially hard as a fan to lose him. But I imagine he must have felt very good about this past year, and that's great.
  3. gregmag
    It's a fun topic to kick around. I agree that Gallardo isn't close. I'd go with pitchleague and include "darn close" to HOFers -- Dale Murphy types, people with long careers who have exceptional achievements by league-wide standards. I don't think you should assess players for uniform retirement based only on their achievements relative to the team. Being the Brewers' all-time leader in Ks is something, but it isn't a huge deal. Let me suggest a related discussion: Where does Gallardo rank all-time among Brewers' starting pitchers? A few years ago I thought about that ranking for fun, focusing on career value as a Brewer with some consideration of peak. I came up with a top four I'm pretty confident about: Higuera, Sheets, (steep dropoff) Bosio, Haas. Assuming I'm right about that (or substituting your own choices), does Gallardo reach that level? I don't think he's there yet, but if he can pitch well for two more years, he's in the mix. I think right now he's between the second tier (Bosio, Haas) and a third tier that includes Caldwell, Slaton, Wegman, Navarro, and Sorensen. Below that you can start arguing about pure peak guys (Sabathia: most extreme case ever) and good pitchers with shorter Brewer careers (Greinke, Davis, Colborn). (BTW, thinking about this makes me weep all over again for Juan Nieves and Cal Eldred.)
  4. gregmag
    This has to be the biggest win of the year, because it keeps Pittsburgh at the fringes of the race rather than putting them back in the heart of it. At this stage I think that's even more important than getting the game back against the Cards. Mike Fiers. Two hits, three baserunners total through seven, and it's actually a bit of a ho-hum start for him. As of right now, I have to think Nelson goes to the pen if everyone's healthy. I'm not saying Fiers will be better long term, but right now he may be the best we have.
  5. gregmag
    Good God, I hate the Cardinals. They score just enough to win, get every break, every clutch hit from every scrub. Every draft pick, signing, and trade comes up roses. The analytic community thinks the sun shines straight out their butts. All this from a negative differential team. They're going to win the division unless we can beat them head to head, because every other team on their schedule has folded like cheap lawn furniture. I can't stand watching them rack up cheap one-run win after cheap one-run win.
  6. gregmag
    The notion, floated above, that a player's performance "doesn't change what he is" boggles my mind. It's the scouting version of statistical blinders. Performance tells us what a player is. If Mike Fiers does something, he does it for a reason or reasons, and those reasons tell us more than we knew before about his ability. This is a strange player, and traditionalists often want to fit strange players into familiar boxes. I want to see what he can do, and I'm pretty sure at this point the organization is on board with that.
  7. gregmag
    I remember reading a study years ago that described how umpires' close calls favored the home team. It makes perfect sense: any person, consciously or not, would rather hear cheers than boos from 40,000 people. In theory the replay should help with that. Of course you guys are right that close calls happen all the time. I'm more worked up about this one, I'm sure, because I was there (I don't get to a lot of games). But it still seems striking to me -- the clear importance of both calls, the fact that the same ump made them, how close together in time they occurred. If nothing else, it made for an exciting finish.
  8. gregmag
    I was at Busch tonight. I have never seen bad umpiring determine an outcome so decisively. Tony Cruz reached and scored the Cards' third run after the home plate ump missed a swinging strikeout. Alexi Amarista didn't score the Padres' fourth run when, a half inning later, that same ump called him out on a missed tag. The Cards "won" 4-3. It's not reasonable to assume Mike Matheny has video of the ump pleasuring livestock; OTOH, no other conceivable explanation is any more reasonable. If the Cards beat the Brewers by a game, this is my nomination for lead atrocity.
  9. gregmag
    That may be Frankie's prettiest save of the year. Fifteen-pitch strikeout, two weak grounders, and then another K, all against the heart of the order. He looked in complete command. I had never heard Davy Nelson do play-by-play before. It's like staring into the existential void. "With all those strikeouts they aren't making much contact, and they aren't drawing walks, so they aren't getting on base." There is no God. (I'm just kidding. This is an in-game thread. Accordingly, and consistent with forum rules, I express no opinion about whether or not God exists. But if God does exist, then He has clearly sent Davey Nelson to destroy us.)
  10. gregmag
    Best case scenario happened tonight. Based on what Fiers did as a rookie and on this start, I think he has to be the likely 6th starter the rest of the year. I figured SP depth down to #7 would be a big strength for us this year, and it's worked out beautifully. What a great start. Welcome back Mike!
  11. gregmag
    Kintzler gets the 9th! Ask and ye shall receive. RR doesn't always get enough credit for his sense of how to deal with people. I love this.
  12. gregmag
    I hadn't realized just how similar their career rate numbers are. Estrada has a better WHIP, but Fiers has a better ERA, FIP, and ERA+ The difference between Fiers and Estrada, I think, is this: We've seen a lot of Estrada. He has had very good stretches as a starter, and I've been a big supporter of his. But this year he has taken a big step backward in the rotation, with his longball weakness spiking. I have a lot less confidence in him going forward than I did six months ago. Others have argued that he never really pitched big innings as a starter, and I sort of dismissed that, but now I think those critics may have been onto something. We don't have as much of a sense of what Fiers can do. He started out great as a rookie, then slipped down the stretch. Opinions (here and elsewhere) differ about whether that was simple fatigue or the league completely figuring him out. Then he came out the next year and got hurt. Now he's dominating AAA again. What is he? We don't really know. I think he's given us reason to believe he could be substantially better than Estrada, but it all depends on adjustments that we won't know whether he can make until he gets another extended shot. Combine all that with the fact that, as others have pointed out, Fiers will be cheap for a while, and I'd rather see Fiers in the "6th starter" role. I can understand, though, why RR and Kranitz might prefer to go with the devil they know.
  13. gregmag
    1. Tyrone Taylor 2. Orlando Arcia 3. Clint Coulter 4. Brandon Diaz 5. Monte Harrison 6. Taylor Williams 7. Tyler Wagner 8. David Denson 9. Jorge Lopez 10. Michael Reed 11. Kodi Medeiros 12. Jacob Gatewood 13. Taylor Jungmann 14. Devin Williams 15. Gilbert Lara 16. Chris McFarland 17. Sthervin Matos 18. Victor Roache 19. Ariel Pena 20. Nick Delmonico 21. Jed Bradley 22. Tyler Cravy 23. Tucker Neuhaus 24. Elvis Rubio 25. Luis Aviles 26. Wei-Chung Wang 27. Nicolas Pierre 28. Franly Mallen 29. Loantgel Segovia 30. Hobbs Johnson 31. Yadiel Rivera 32. Taylor Brennan 33. Omar Garcia 34. Brent Suter 35. Jason Rogers 36. Drew Gagnon 37. Michael Blazek 38. Shawn Zarraga 39. Johnny Hellweg 40. Brooks Hall Edit: I didn't look at other posters' lists until I finished mine. The one change I made after seeing what others did and reviewing the numbers was replacing Wang with Cravy in the top 25. Cravy's season this year has benefited from a ridiculous BABIP of .223; I don't believe he's quite the guy we're seeing. But he has a couple of years of good pitching under his belt, and he's reached AAA. Obviously I went more for potential over polish, though most of the younger guys I've listed have produced at least modestly well. My list doesn't have any full-time relievers; unless a guy is just an overpowering specialist, I don't see much hope for minor league relievers (I'm thinking of Goforth). The system has some exciting prospects. Doing this exercise confirms my sense that we're on the right track.
  14. gregmag
    Kirk Gibson helped make the hate mutual last week . . .
  15. gregmag
    You know that feeling you get when the Brewers are about to cough up a game? I hope my gut is off-kilter, but I have that feeling right now.
  16. gregmag
    I hope Delgado suffers a career-ending injury. McCutchen doesn't even belong to the same species as Gibson and his obedient thugs. This unbelievable dirtbag has the gall to criticize Ryan Braun? I really wish we played these jerks again.
  17. gregmag
    Just watched Matheny's post-game interview. What a whining tool. A true heir to Tony LaRussa. I'm ashamed he played for us.
  18. gregmag
    I've gotten upset before when prospects I believed in got dealt, so I'm not going to argue with Haniger's boosters. I hope they're right; I hope he has a great career. I'll just say I'm okay with putting him in this deal. TheCrew07 gave, I think, a fair estimate of what Haniger might be able to do. In particular, I think it's reasonable to argue that the first six years of Haniger's MLB career will be worth more than the next 1.25 years of Parra's career. Maybe even a lot more. But that's okay. To put this in perspective, think about including Michael Brantley (a guy I loved as a prospect) in the deal for two months of Sabathia. I think, for the Brewers, that was a good use of Michael Brantley. He has broken out this year, and he'd improve our team, but not dramatically. He may have more good years, though this kind of looks like an age 27 spike. But Sabathia put us in the playoffs. Parra's nowhere near that important, but he does address our most glaring weakness. I think there's a good chance we'll look back at this trade in five years and say it was a good use of Haniger for us.
  19. gregmag
    I think this is exactly right. Also: We're buying low on Parra, possibly selling high on Banda, and Haniger isn't young for a prospect and has never produced near elite levels. Other than an ace SP (too expensive and not happening anyway) or a clear upgrade at 1b (weirdly elusive), this is the most helpful move we could make. Huge bench upgrade, LH, versatile -- love it.
  20. gregmag
    I agree that Coulter at 9 is low. I think he comes in ahead of Haniger and Jungman, and arguably the new kids. Haniger hasn't shown enough to rate where he does. Hellweg is way too high, given his lack of results and now the injury. Morris shouldn't be on the list. Biggest problem: Where's Diaz? Matos arguably also belongs.
  21. gregmag
    DHonks, I'm very sorry to hear about your brother. I hope you and your family are doing okay. That's a great perspective to bring to the Jeffress discussion. It really does feel good to root for a guy who seems to have overcome some rough stretches.
  22. gregmag
    I'm curious -- do you have a reason for dismissing the pitch framing data? There's plenty I don't know, so maybe I'm just a rube here. But I understand how they got the data, and the methodology seems sound to me. It's also shown some consistency over seasons; Lucroy isn't just some one-year pitch-framing wonder. On top of all that, the data seem to correspond with what scouts and observers say about good catching form: stay still, minimize movement of the target, etc. Maybe there's more to your skepticism, but you seem to be saying that you dismiss the pitch-framing stuff just because it's new and counter-intuitive. I think those are good reasons to review a claim skeptically, but as far as I can tell, this one holds up pretty well under review.
  23. gregmag
    I'm not going to pile on with the puns, because I sympathize with the guy, but I'll point out that the MLB.com feature story on him, which was kind of a "feel good human interest" piece, talked about his marijuana travails and then said he "lit up" when talking about his baby daughter. Editing -- the lost art of the 21st Century.
  24. gregmag
    Sweep, with JJ showing his stuff in the 9th and Reynolds getting back in the game. Sweet. I love winning afternoon games, especially after gaining ground last night. All the pressure is on the Cards and Pirates tonight.
  25. gregmag
    Doesn't market size factor in pretty heavily? I would think StL is in the medium-small market range. Great news for the draft next year, especially since we hopefully won't be picking very high.
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