MJLiverock

Even if Aoki only bats .230/.290 with little power and Green bats .250/.310 and hits for 8-10 hrs I still think thats pretty solid from the bench. when you look around the league who has the potential for better bench than us? not many teams imo. There are a lot of people that wanted to start Green this year and others wanted to trade Morgan when we signed Aoki. I think we have 1-2 starting caliber players (Gomez & Green) another with starter potential(Aoki) and a defensive wiz(Izturis) with an average back up catcher. That sounds pretty nice to me. RockCougars summed my feelings up on the bench well. Izturis brings nothing to the bench, he is possibly the worst hitter in baseball, most of the Brewers starting rotation would provide a better pinch hitter than Izturis. His defense over the last 5 years or so has ranged from negative to great, call it above average but really adds nothing when the guy they brought in to start at SS is supposed to be here for D so there is no need to pull him late. Aoki is Morgan 2.0, Green may provide some lefty with pop but it is a guess at this point especially when counting on a young guy who has never had the role of PH, sporadic playing time. Gomez is fine as PR defense but no discipline and not exactly the guy I would calmor for if a timely hit is needed. Does the team really need 3 guys for defensive purposes in CF? It's not like any of them need to be pulled for defensive purposes and unless they plan on pulling Hart from RF for one of them late there is redundancy there. I see a lot of question marks and a pretty much useless guy (Izturis) and as Ender hit on, no one there to win the game with one swing of the bat.

I'll assume Braun,not suspended, if he is, I'd guess the recored is well below playoff contention, the team is somewhat in disarray for the first few weeks as they struggle with figuring out lineups and dealing with the temptation to constantly tinker with things. Player of the Year: Ryan Braun -best hitter on the team, elite talent. Pitcher of the Year: Zack Greinke - best pure talent on the mound, finds a comfort zone in Milwaukee this year after dealing with the new surroundings and injury last year. Rookie of the Year: comes down to playing time, Aoki or Gamel; if Gamel gets 140+ games in I think he'll win it by default as no one else will play that much, if he doesn't get that many games in it means he is struggling and not playing well so it goes to Aoki. Surprise Player: I don't have a feeling that a lot of major contributor guys can surprise me to the upside so I'll go with Chris Narveson,-- flirts with a sub 4 ERA and becomes 3rd most consistent starter in rotation. Disappointment: Shawn Marcum - - overcompensating for terrible playoff appearances and tweeking delivery lead to a stint or two on the DL and a mid 4's ERA. Questions Answered: 1) Who will get the first contract extension? Not many choices so I'll go with Grienke being a $100 Million man for the Brewers. 2) Who will be the first traded away or released(off the expected 25 man roster)? Manny Parra. Braddock gets the nod as the lefty and Parra's injury and control will leave him the odd man out of the pen. 3) What position in the NL Central will the Brewers finish? 3rd Record: 85-77. The rotation ends up slightly worse than last year as Marcum disappoints (does some DL time), Wolf regressed a bit with age and luck, and the team fills in the 5th spot with the likes of Estrada or some other AAAA starter prior to calling up Peralta late in the season. The bullpen will be good with Veras, Loe, Braddock for the 7th and KRod/Ax for the 8th/9th, but expecting Axford to only blow 2 saves all year seems too optimistic. The terrible bench will limit late game comebacks and the loss of Prince in the middle of the lineup hurt more than many expect.

I think Oldcity's post sums up my feelings on what will happen. Braun will get suspending regardless of the reasons because baseball won't want to look like they let off a star player or admit their testing system was flawed. Meanwhile behind the scenes they will go about tweaking whatever it was that caused the positive or slightly change some minor language on the rules. Braun's camp and fans will loudly proclaim the suspension is unjustified and dump all the data regarding it into the public eye. Non Brewer fans won't care and will label him a juicer in the likes of Canseco, just like we would have if the same happened to Pujols. MLB will just keep a no comment status on the noise and questions about the positive while not stopping from Braun from pleading his case to public either. Sort of like how no matter how many times it gets shown that instant reply on HR's, fair/foul, outs at the plate, etc. in playoff games make a difference, MLB for years said, "Well they get it right most of the time" as a defense for refusing to change despite obvious errors. Baseball will make changes but not retroactive to fix the Braun situation and won't make public on their own or relate those changes to Braun's case.

As Hawing said FSN WI is probably the best choice for the Brewers because of the statewide coverage. TWC doesn't cover much outside of Milwaukee and for sure isn't in the Madison area and won't likely be available to satellite/U-Verse customers which area big part of the viewing audience in WI. A place like San Diego is 91% penetrated by pay TV services and the market is dominated by traditional cable at 77% vs. only 14% for alternatives like DirecTV, DishNetwork, U-Verse, etc. Milwaukee is 79% penetrated with cable at 60%, alternatives 19%. Once you get outside Milwaukee the numbers shift more toward the satellite and internet providers. Madison is 84% penetrated with cable 50%, alternatives 34%, La Crosse/Eau Claire 86% with a 54% cable 32% alternative split, Green Bay/Appleton is 82% with 51% cable and 31% alternatives. So even working out a deal with Charter and TWC together would eliminate about a third of the subs in all the markets outside Milwaukee. Advertisers also like those alternative subs because they tend to be higher income households, at least in DirecTV's case. Nationwide the trend has seen alternatives gather their highest share ever and continue to grow while traditional cable has been losing subs not only to DirecTV (DishNetwork has been shrinking) and U-Verse, but also the cord cutters who are opting just for netflix, Hulu, etc. The overall penetration of pay TV has declined in the Madison market over the years, and likely in some of the college towns as the younger crowd is happy to use HULU and such for TV. The diehard sports fans won't drop the pay TV as long as they can get the sports they want. Unlike reilly's post above, I rarely watch sports "live". I typically don't start watching a game until about half an hour after it starts just so I can FFWD the commercials, pause it make lunch or dinner, and skip half time.

At lunch today I was talking with a friend who is an Illinois grad/fan and we were discussing the style of play in the B10. He just suffered through that MSU/IL rugby match the other night and couldn't understand how teams can recruit athletes and claim to want to do more but end up in these games all the time in the B10. We both remember watching the old IL/MI/OSU, even Minnesota and Indiana when they were good score points, run the floor, press, etc. Now almost every team plays these slow down, grinder games and we couldn't figure out what happened. I understand WI going to that style under Bennett and teams like a NW or an Iowa playing slow, emphasizing D, but why would teams that traditionally have had no problem recruiting athletic scoring players resort to this grinder style which only seems to play into the hands of the weaker teams? I watched the Kansas game last night and was reminded of why I used to love watching college basketball all the time and would watch game after game on Saturdays. The game was so much more fluid, attacking, and exciting. And it wasn't like by being aggressive and playing fast it was some sort of turnover fest or brick show. I think the last few years of watching the B10 devolve into this ultra conservative, I can play slower and tougher than you mentality, had ruined my enjoyment of college basketball. I've already passed on Badger Basketball tickets many times these last couple years but maybe it is time for me to just stop watching B10 basketball altogether and just watch one of the other leagues.

I've watched many of the shows on your list and based on that and your list I would add the The Shield, (creator of Sons of Anarchy was a writer and producer of the Shield). Justified has a few of the old Shield cast members and I've enjoyed that show as well. I'd second Big Bang and Modern Family. I see How I Met Your Mother mentioned and I will since your taste in shows seems similar to mine, I won't say I hate How I Met Your Mother, because there are funny moments and the concept is good, I just hate Ted and Marshall's characters so much, I just want to punch them. For more sophomoric humor I like Comedy Central's Workaholics as well, just ridiculous over the top stuff that I remember from being a stupid early 20's idiot and seeing/doing. For Sci Fi I would check out Battlestar Galactica, the newer series, not the 70's Dirk Benedict/Lorne Greene version. Good drama, not just a science fiction or tech oriented show. If you are into watching shows on DVD from beginning to end, Lost, is worth seeing in order, beginning to end.

I'd even ask if anyone is really making any money on the play in games. The arena in Dayton was usually only half full if that and I can't believe the television audience was even that big for two small conference unknowns battling. Maybe that is why they started another play in game with teams from bigger conferences involved?

YB's WAR for 10 & 11 was 0.9 and 0.5. Izturis for 09 & 10 (he was hurt for most of 11 so going with his most recent 2 years) was 0.7 and -0.3, actually worse than YB. Since 0.9 and 0.5 > 0.7 and -0.3 either WAR isn't an accurate assessment of value or the Brewers managed to bring a player who is worse than YB. He may be a bench player but he has less PHing value than a pitcher and the guy brought in to start at SS is supposed to be better than average with the glove so he won't need to be subbed for late in the game. People will get tired of seeing Izturis trotted out to PH because he is a switch hitter and weakly ground out. As much as YB was considered the worst glove in baseball, Izturis is equally considered the worst bat in baseball and based on WAR his glove can't even make up for it.

I stayed at the Courtyard by Marriott in downtown and had no problems with it back in 2004 or 05. I walked from there across the Clemente bridge to Heinz Field with a ton of people since they closed the bridge prior to the football game. Plenty of bars and outdoor partying around the baseball stadium on a football sunday so I imagine they have some of that for baseball games. The hotel was walking distance to the Strip District (my Pittsburgh native friend called it this and it has nothing to do with adult entertainment) where the Western Pennyslvania Sports Museum is, nightclubs, restaurants, the Convention Center, and the original Primanti Brothers (which I too found slightly disappointing. It wasn't bad but didn't live up to the hype).

I agree Yuni isn't good it just annoys me that people are excited he is gone and that the Royals are stupid for signing him as a back up yet the Brewers replaced him with a player like Izturis who is no better and may be worse. I literally would rather have Counsell than Izturis as a bench player and I think Counsell was one of the worst bench players in baseball last year. If there were unlimited roster spots and guys who can't hit out of a paper sack could just play defense then fine, but when guys who are barely above average at defense and can't hit better than the pitchers are taking up valuable bench spots and PH 50 times or more it handcuffs the manager and kills rallies.

Got it, so now WAR isn't the stat to use since it doesn't prove YB is the worst player in baseball. Scouts and eyeballs are now the test to use when evaluating players. Because we all know that YB is the worst player in baseball and no one even comes close to his level of putridness.

It's funny that anyone believed that. He followed it up by tweeting, Oh, you guys thought I meant the 1B from Milwaukee. My bad. (I love all of you. Happy Holidays!) I don't know that anyone a actually believed Logan Morrison would be breaking the news about Fielder, it was an odd tweet if anything.

Logan Morrison of the Marlins is tweeting that Prince to Seattle is done deal FWIW.

Yuni B's bat = Cesar Iztruis' bat (actually Yuni is a better hitter, but not by much) Izturis is a much better defender than Yuni ever was and is therefore a better player. I don't want Izturis starting, but this is exactly the type of guy the Brewers should have on their bench. Since WAR was used as proof of how bad YB was by many I don't see how Izturis fares any better by that metric. His glove is better than YB but he may be the worst hitter in all of baseball offsetting his glove completely. YB's WAR for 10 & 11 was 0.9 and 0.5. Izturis for 09 & 10 (he was hurt for most of 11) was 0.7 and -0.3, actually worse than YB. I want no part of his bat being used to PH ever, it was bad enough with Counsell last year being trotted out there to PH.

Yuni B = Cesar Izturis but at least the Brewers were smart enough to just sign Izturis to a minor league deal.

If the posting fee is refundable if a contract isn't reached could it be possible that the Rangers could have no real intention of actually signing him but just wanted to be sure the Yankees didn't get him? They can make some offers, say they count the $50MM in their view of the contract even though Yu doesn't get that money and end up never offering him enough to entice him to leave Japan. Their view may be, if he takes their lowball offer and even coupled with the $50MM they may be all right, if he doesn't and goes back to Japan, oh well at least the Yankees didn't get him.

They aren't any kinder to our latest signing either. http://www.fangraphs.com/...le-continued-employment/

Basically just the flip side of a YuniB coin. His bat is completely awful, and is slightly above average with the glove if he isn't hurt. Another SS who has been labeled the worst player in MLB on occasion. Better pray this guy never ends up starting regularly or the SS position is in the same if not worse position than it was last year.

Not quite the same type or level of salary dump for the trade that brought him Milwaukee. He had a clause w/the Mets that would have forced them to pick up an option that would h have paid him $17 Million for 2012 if he finished X number of games. The Mets couldn't just not let him close to avoid the option or the union would file a grievance. So the Mets were shedding a 1 year $17MM deal for a closer they didn't need because they weren't contending for anything. They could only trade him to another team that already had an established closer or the same option/grievance plan would kick in. The Brewers would be shedding what, maybe a < $10 million 1 year deal and would be able to trade him anywhere. His salary for a year deal will probably be a fair amount for 1 year deal on an established closer if that is what a team is looking for. If he gets anything less than $10 Million I'm fine with Milwaukee keeping him for the year. I'd rather have him everyday for the 8th than two aged $5MM men who spend time on the DL and can't go more than 2x a week and may have one of the famous off years for a reliever.

Fangraphs gave Gonzalez -0.3 on UZR. His RngR (Range Runs Saved) was -6.3 compared to Betancourt's -4.5. His overall RZR looks much better than Betancourt and his fielding percentage is much better. No doubt he is a better defensive player than YB but it isn't like he was Ozzie Smith last year and is another year older. Meh, likely isn't going to make a huge difference but will likely help a bit on the D and be a wash at the plate. I predict by mid season there will be plenty of hate strewn his way.

What was with Gonzalez that he had a negative defensive rating last year? Getting old? Bad luck? Vagaries of the defensive rating system?

K-Rod accepting doesn't seem like such a bad thing for the Brewers. The team has the 8th and 9th taken care of and with the starters they have there shouldn't be a lot of 5 inning empty the pen games. It keeps them from spending $4-$5 Million on old reliever who can't pitch every day, or have numerous trips to the DL or unavailable list because of tweeked tendons, joints, hips, abs, and whatnot. Allows the team if not forces them to use some young cheap guys in the pen to see what they have rather than just write them off because they are young like a Kinzler. Probably means Parra, Rogers, Braddock, get a chance to come back from injury (see if they still have the nasty stuff and can harness it) and possibly even a Fiers or Peralta get some ML action. I like the idea of Aram's bat, but his defense is no better than McGehee. I do think the team needs to add some offense somewhere to help offset the drop in production from Fielder to Gamel.

It has been mentioned at times that he could or would increase the payroll by injecting personal money into the team. I've never really thought he would but it gets play just like people talk about deep pocketed owners. So I thought it interesting that any extra personal wealth he has could be tied up elsewhere or he could feel the need to generate a larger profit from the Brewers which does partially go into his pocket and by extension become available for him to use to pay other debts like participating in a buyout of his firm. So yes we are talking about corporations, or actually in this case I think the Brewers are actually a LLP not a corporation. Either way since the Brewers are closely held or controlled by a small group, the profits can easily be disbursed among the owners each year. Not to mention the debt covenants that may or may not exist regarding the debt used by the ownership group (which also includes other TCW executives) may further place restrictions on the group regarding any personal guarantees of the debt they may have or require him to pay down the Brewer debt before taking on more debt elsewhere that he personally guarantees, which would also limit the funds for payroll. Believe me I've seen real estate developers loans with covenants restricting the developer from adding more personal debt elsewhere and if they do they have to either pay down the original debt or risk being put into default. Anything can be written into the covenants as long as both parties agree to it in the beginning and there usually are plenty of them when loans of $100's of millions are made. It is actually quite easy and legal to use the cash flow of one one business to finance another business, it happens all the time. Business A makes profit, pays a dividend to the owners or in the case of an LLP the prorated share of the profits can appear on a k-1 statement right on the owners tax return. The owner can then take their profit and invest it in business B. The cash flow of Business A is then funding Business B, it just gets taxed as it passes through the common owner's pocket.

Not sure where to put this but thought it was somewhat interesting to the Brewers situation. The rumor is that TCW (Trust Company of the West) may be put up for sale, this is the company where Mark Attanasio made his money and is a member of the board of directors. One aspect of the rumor is that the management team may purchase the company from SocGen. http://www.investmentnews.../20111129/FREE/111129891 If so this would probably tie up any extra cash Mr. Attanasio had or at least make him think hard about where to allocate his resources.

Why would having fewer balls go to Braun be better? Didn't the discussion in the Gold Glove thread seem to point to Braun actually being one of the better LF'ers as far as fielding goes? I know it gets to be popular to rag on the fielding of every player but unless you are holding Braun up to standards of CFers then it seems he is just fine as a corner OF.