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Fear The Chorizo

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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo

  1. Fear The Chorizo
    The 49ers would probably try to swing a trade of Lance initially to pick up some other team's 1st to send to GB for Rodgers, possibly include a player from a loaded roster as part of a trade - or just include a future 1st and a pile of this year's 3rds as a trade package. It's less likely than the Jets based on the legwork already done, but it's not that far-fetched. If the 49ers haven't recently shown the ability to be uber aggressive with trades, I'd tend to agree with you that it's just baseless rumors...and the fact they inquired about trading for Rodgers two offseasons ago...honestly if I was an aging QB looking for 1 more solid shot at a ring that'd be the 1st roster I'd want to be traded into.
  2. Fear The Chorizo
    Yep, and he's likely done for the season...I get the homeplate sliding rule was put into effect largely to protect catchers from injury, but this play is one rare reason why I wish a baserunner didn't have to slide on a play at the plate. At minimum if you slide into home feet first it shouldn't be with the intent of trying to touch the plate with your feet first - just way too much that you could potentially catch a cleat on weird and severely injure yourself going straight for the plate. Much safer play to actually slide head first or try a feet first slide off to the side while trying to sneak your hand over the plate. Its a shame for Cruz and the Pirates.
  3. Fear The Chorizo
    All I can think of is the tape of him getting completely shut down against UGA - TCU was overmatched all over the field, but Johnston couldn't get open at all with Georgia playing bump and run most of the game (when it actually mattered). Johnston was nursing a bum ankle most of last season, too - so maybe there's some concern on the health front. Tools and athletic ability appear to be all there - it could simply be a bunch of other players rocketing up boards based on who's picking and what perceived needs they have, too. Keep in mind that the last few drafts have seen a ton of WR's taken early, so it may be one of those years where teams that just recently picked a receiver in round 1 have other roster holes that need filling, and a team like the Packers could have an ideal fit fall into their lap.
  4. Fear The Chorizo
    position players rated this highly have a much lower probability of busting primarily due to lower injury risk than pitchers (blow out an arm at the wrong spot or frequently and it doesn't really matter what your prospect pedigree is as a pitcher if you can't stay on the mound). The fact he's not considered the top overall prospect as a 19-yr old kid is just insane - exciting times, to be sure!
  5. Fear The Chorizo
    I think too many people fail to realize how much higher Mitchell's ceiling is than Frelick in terms of defensive value and power. Limited sample size last season, but Mitchell did get his average up over 0.300 at the MLB level after initial struggles. Mitchell absolutely profiles as an everyday centerfielder with plus defense and above average offense from that position - provided he can stay healthy. Frelick has the superior hit/contact tool, but Mitchell is the better outfield defender. If Yelich is still a Brewer over the next few seasons, it'll be as a DH to make room for Frelick - then if Chourio continues his progression at least one of those three young OFs gets dealt to make room for him. It sucks to trade away pre-arbitration talent, but on the other hand it's great to actually have organizational depth of high-impact talent to make that an option - something any small market organization should strive for.
  6. Fear The Chorizo
    This is the type of defense that loses you winnable games....particularly when the offense is allergic to doing something that scores a run every now and then.
  7. Fear The Chorizo
    facepalm....sometimes I wonder if the Brewers would struggle to plate runs with guys in scoring position if the opponent just walked a batting tee out there
  8. Fear The Chorizo
    I don't think its oriented appropriately for baseball...then again neither was the hefty gladbag building before snow decided to crater its roof. Regular season baseball anywhere is a good thing - yay for OPENING DAY!!
  9. Fear The Chorizo
    For the Twins' perspective, they should probably be required to play their 1st month's-worth of home games down in Ft. Myers at their spring training facility.
  10. Fear The Chorizo
    That's ridiculous - I went through a similar ordeal a couple years ago, but was successful using the process our lender had in place with having an assessment done by a licensed assessor of their choosing. If I remember right, that assessment fee was between $300-$500 - our lender gave us the option to either pay it in full or tack it onto the load principle, which we promptly paid in full. Getting PMI off our monthly books was definitely a plus - it's helped us not be too impacted by increasing homeowners insurance and property tax increases that our escrow payments have tried to keep up with. This time of year is always a fun one waiting for the annual escrow analysis letter from the lender stating how much more our monthly mortgage payment is going to be...smh.
  11. Fear The Chorizo
    I'm going ice fishing later today up here....it's been a crazy winter for sure
  12. Fear The Chorizo
    There are plenty of layers in this post that make it delicious given various thread histories on this board even if the spelling error on Keston's name wasn't intentional...but if it was intentional it just makes it gold. well done!
  13. Fear The Chorizo
    My company just won some work for a client that has facilities located in this part of the country, and I can't wait to time the work to ideal trout fishing times the next few years! We explored the area a few summers ago as part of a trip hitting up a bunch of national parks, and I caught myself looking for any for sale signs I could find nearby - my kind of spot to retire to.
  14. Fear The Chorizo
    Yes, I think we'll get conditional piece(s) - but I don't think any conditional pieces should or will go the other direction...unless the Jets pony up alot more than what's being discussed as likely trade value upfront. That's what an earlier post in this thread insinuated - Jets are wanting 2025 draft compensation back from the Packers if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season as part of this trade. If they won't move from that position, then I'd hope the Packers should demand more from them in the trade package upfront because the initial deal should be based on multiple Rodgers seasons in New York. If the Jets truly are asking this, then I'd hope GB is insisting on their 2023 1st at this point as part of the trade. Cheezwizhead's post or I'm not saying it's fact, but it's one of those rumors floating out there.
  15. Fear The Chorizo
    I'd say the return for Favre was more to avoid him going directly to the Vikings the same year the Jets acquired him. The performance-based conditions were kind of unlikely, but oh well. That scenario also occurred after the guy retired/unretired right at the start of training camp. If the 2023 draft comes and goes before the trade gets done, then Gute can just insist on the Jets' 2024 1st and 2nd if the Jets are adamant about tying 2025 return draft pick compensation to this trade. In the end, I agree that a deal gets done before this year's draft, it'll be good for both sides, and it won't carry multiple layers of contingency/conditional picks potentially heading both directions.
  16. Fear The Chorizo
    I disagree on the notion Hiura was rushed and that's why he couldn't make enough contact at the MLB level to justify a roster spot - he was arguably the top collegiate hitter in his draft class and didn't have anything to prove at the lower minor league levels. When he hasn't been in MLB the past few seasons, he's torn the cover off the ball and would likely continue to do so. The one thing I keep going back to with Hiura as a Brewer in the majors is the fact he was yo-yo'd so much in and out of the lineup even when he was up with the MLB club, and after his 2019 rookie season I think they tried throwing him in too many defensive positions to try and get his bat into the lineup (no DH at the time). Part of that is on Hiura because his offensive performance didn't justify finding ways to keep him in the lineup consistently...but something happened to his approach between 2019 and spring training 2021 that emphasized power over contact, and it changed the hitter Hiura was supposed to be. The reverse splits Hiura has never made him a good platoon fit on a roster with alot of LH bats at spots he could potentially play. I think he'd round into an above-average DH at the MLB level if a rebuilding team just gives him that role for a season and pencils him in the lineup every day. I think he's more than a AAAA player, but I could be wrong and there's plenty of other hitters with similar career arcs who couldn't make the adjustment to hitting MLB pitching consistently enough to stick.
  17. Fear The Chorizo
    The proposed 2023 2nd and 2024 2nd that could become a 1st seems like decent value via trade for 1 season of Rodgers even with his current contract. In this scenario, if the Jets are adamant of future pick compensation in the event Rodgers only plays 1 more season and won't move off that hill, then GB should be insisting on their 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, and a conditional 2024 pick based on how the Jets perform next season because Rodgers' value shifts from just one season to multiple years. The Packers have dealt with contingencies and unnecessary drama related to Rodgers over the past 3-4 seasons, so I'm sure Gute is just flat out done with it all at this point and is right to tell the Jets to pound sand asking for future draft pick compensation based on the whims of what Rodgers feels like doing 12 months from now - unless he gets trade value based on 2+ seasons of Rodgers upfront...dealing with drama is part of the drill with a veteran QB when he's in your organization, but in no way should there be any additional draft pick-related compensation headed to the Jets from Green Bay based on what ARod decides to do after a 2023 season that he plays for a different organization. If the Jets want Rodgers, they should want all that comes with him.
  18. Fear The Chorizo
    Given the hitting talent Hiura has that warranted him being a 1st round talent the year he was drafted, I don't think it was a mistake to tender him last fall - if a team doesn't pick him up on his current salary I think it would still be worth it to the Brewers to have Hiura in their system at that amount in case he does right the ship this season. Whether it's as a Brewer or most likely another team, we haven't seen the last of Hiura at the MLB level, and I think he will eventually find a solid career for an organization as a DH. One option I can definitely see Hiura pursuing is playing a season or two overseas to reinvent himself as a hitter - a la Eric Thames. To me the Japanese or Korean leagues would be ideal for Keston, since he has more of a slider speed bat and the velo just isn't as consistently high as it is in MLB. I've always pulled for the guy and am still confident he's going to right the ship - just bummed he's most likely going to do it with a different team at some point.
  19. Fear The Chorizo
    It's pretty common for a step back to happen after winning back to back MVPs for a quarterback - particularly when you break the thumb on your throwing hand and you lose your best (and arguably the best) veteran WR to free agency and replace him with rookies who don't know yet what they're doing. That's independent of age. 38 yr old 2021 Rodgers is worth more than a mid 1st round pick via trade no matter what's left on his contract - 39 yr old Rodgers isn't as valuable, but the exact calculus depends on how much of last season's scuffles were due to his thumb compared to father time finally snatching away Rodgers' ability to take over a game. I think it's a combination of the two, and the uncertainty of it is a big reason why a trade hasn't happened yet. I also don't the the Packers absolutely HAVE to get 2023 draft compensation in a trade for Rodgers, and because of that they may stick to their guns long enough for the Jets to sweat a bit more than they're doing right now. There's zero need for the Packers, Rodgers, or for that matter the Jets to rush into a trade, even though all sides know it's going to eventually happen. Thinking it's more of a case of not wanting to be the first to get antsy.
  20. Fear The Chorizo
    I think it's a product of the changing landscape of college sports due to transfer and NIL rules, and it shows up alot faster in a sport like college hoops where the players with the most talent are often gone to the NBA before they turn 20 - these factors all make it really tough for even the best programs to maintain quality depth, and it leads to surprise runs of teams with good/not great cores of grown men beating teams of 18-20 yr old kids. SDSU and Miami definitely fit that bill - FAU is an outlier but their road to the final 4 got helped in a big way by being in the bracket with their 2nd round game against a 16 seed.
  21. Fear The Chorizo
    They did let them play and that was a clear foul call - shoving a guy in the side as he's jumping to take a shot is a 100% foul and should be called a foul no matter what the game situation is. I'd rather that happen then the refs swallow the whistle and take away the advantage the offensive player created by beating his defender. Tough way to end the game for Creighton, to be sure - but one could argue the Creighton player got away with shoving the guy he was guarding on that in bounds play that wound up leading to a TO and direct layup to tie the game before then.
  22. Fear The Chorizo
    Uconn is just destroying teams - have to be the favorite of what's left standing, yes? That being said, the way this tourney's going that probably just guarantees they lose next round.
  23. Fear The Chorizo
    With Burnes, you can’t include 2019 because that was pre-cutter. Entirely different pitcher since then. Teams won’t give a crap about that season, as they’re only interested in projecting the future. The exact same thing could be said two offseasons from now for Burnes' 2020 and 2021 seasons, depending on what he does in 2023 and 2024...he's been fantastic since he was shelled in 2019, but two full seasons is a looong time for a pitcher. And teams can and should absolutely include pre-arbitration seasons (like 2019) in arbitration hearings as a way of establishing contract values. Quite possibly part of what irked Burnes, but it wasn't made up out of thin air if looking at his whole body of work was part of the Brewers' case in the arbitration hearing. Obviously, a totally different animal in a few years when teams bid on him in free agency if he remains elite and healthy.
  24. Fear The Chorizo
    He's still got two full seasons to pitch, stay healthy, and maintain those rate stats before hitting free agency and potentially setting the market. I hope his dominance continues, but some regression is almost expected. Burnes' two outright dominant seasons that have him at the top of that 3 year sample size for rate stats were the covid shortened season and the 2021 season in a 6 man rotation where his innings pitched were both limited. 2022 was a really good year with a higher innings load, but it wasn't "best pitcher in baseball" caliber. Guessing if you'd include his 2019 stats and IP totals for a last 4 year sample size, Burnes might not look as deserving to set a free agent pitcher contract record. However, if the next two seasons look more like 2021, then yes he will be setting the new pitching market.
  25. Fear The Chorizo
    I think it's more along the lines of Burnes' camp extolling how fantastic of a pitcher he is and how he's better than other pitchers in similar stages of their career at arby 2 to justify their requested salary amount, and the Brewers side is more comparing Burnes' stats to that of other great pitchers as they worked through arbitration and then focusing on the stats that likely limit Burnes' arby 2 value to the figure they came up with - namely innings pitched - over a couple year sample size. Burnes can interpret selective statistical evaluation as the Brewers devaluing him or blaming him for missing the playoffs, but that's very unlikely to have actually been stated in the hearing. In terms of limited innings pitched, Burnes better get used to that being something that's focused on by teams pursuing him as a free agent, too. Don't get me wrong - he's among the very best starting pitchers in baseball...but he won his Cy Young pitching in a 6 man rotation and wasn't quite as dominant having to take the ball every 5th day most of last season. That's just the truth.
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