Fear The Chorizo
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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo
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Padres extend Darvish: 6 years, $108 million
Fear The Chorizo replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The San Diego metro area has approximately 4 million people living in it and they are in the most populous state in the US. Milwaukee's metro area is about 1.5 million. Milwaukee sits in the shadow of Chicago, also a large city with 2 MLB teams. San Diego also sits adjacent to Tijuana, a Mexican metro area of about 3 million more people - and the Padres have appropriately made a lot of efforts marketing their franchise to Mexico. Outside the immediate metro area of Milwaukee and Madison, the Brewers have a bunch of farmland to look to for added local revenue. San Diego is a small market compared to LA....Milwaukee is a small market compared to San Diego and that's not even considering the revenue advantages the Padres currently have with property they own around the ballpark and the financial disparity between ownership groups of those teams. -
I guess I was stating 9 teams (going on 10) have won at least 2 in the last 30 yrs - reading comprehension is hard for me in the morning! And yeah, that also indicates half the league is in a title drought spanning at least 3 decades....so much for NFL parity
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By my count 9, if you count the Rams in both STL and LA. Will be 10 after this weekend. Most of those multiple winners are from teams with totally different rosters winning it all many years apart (Packers included), the obvious exceptions being the two Patriot dynasties, the Broncos in the late 90s with Elway, and the Cowboys in the early 90s with Aikman and a loaded roster. Giants and Steelers seem to be the two teams who won Super Bowls a few years apart with similar core rosters that wouldn't necessarily be considered dynasties, but they had the same quarterback. Disappointing that the Packers haven't won more titles with two straight HOF quarterbacks over the last 30ish seasons....but not really that far outside the normal NFL ebb and flow. I would add several of the Packers' recent postseason trainwrecks likely cost them a couple additional Super Bowls during seasons where they were probably the best team in the league - the 2011 15-1 season, 2014 NFC championship debacle in Seattle, 2021 NFC title game loss against the Bucs, and last seasons stinker against the 49ers come to mind specifically. However, the bigger disappointment would be organizations who've had HOF-caliber play from 1-2 quarterbacks over extended portions of the last 30 seasons with 1 or no Super Bowl titles to show for it.
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I mean, I bet he'll be able to hold a clipboard 2 weeks after whatever surgery he gets - it's not like he'd take the starting quarterback job away from a healthy Trey Lance anyway, at least until the 49ers know Lance can't be a difference maker for them at quarterback before moving on from a 2nd overall draft pick 2 drafts ago who really hasn't played yet. Hoping Purdy's camp gets all available opinions and makes the best decision for him and his career longterm, not for "all parties involved"....all parties involved means the 49ers. Throwing a football is different than a baseball, but it sure seems to me like I'd want as complete a throwing arm as possible and not just throw some chicken wire in there with super glue and call it good because it means I might be able to suit up for training camp 7 months after I got my elbow blown out for a futile quarterback "battle".
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Peralta has a history of minor shoulder issues that cost him portions of the regular season, so it's not surprising to try and manage his workload - however, the Brewers' organizational philosophy of having a roster with a 6 man rotation and some long guys in the pen should be about all the extra management needed for any starter, Peralta included. Giving stretched out pitchers more than the rest a 6 man rotation offers could be just as problematic to a pitching arm as what a 5 man rotation rest cycle would be. So, if Peralta is healthy and it's his turn to pitch within a 6 man rotation, give him the ball. I just think we have to cross our fingers that 2023 winds up being a largely healthy and effective season for Freddy, which would give the Brewers a great top 3 rotation arms to churn through the regular season.
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That's one option if he goes the UCL repair route, but depending on which opinion he wants to go he may wind up getting the reconstruction done and he'll miss the season. 49ers doctors seem to think the repair and 6 month recovery is the way to go, but that isn't necessarily what other doctors are saying - otherwise I'd imagine Purdy would've already had that procedure done.
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honest question - based on how well that's worked for the Packers the past few years in terms of getting to the Super Bowl/vying for titles, why would a team trading for Rodgers also want to drag along his buddies? I think Rodgers gets a team over the hump that has a really good to great defense and some young pieces on offense that could take the next step with a great quarterback getting them the ball....I don't know if the Raiders' roster is good enough to dramatically improve just with adding Rodgers. The Jets on the other hand - or the Dolphins if Tua is damaged goods due to concussion issues - are better fits IMO.
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No thanks on Purdy - no reason for the Packers to want him. A nice story Mr. Irrelevant draft pick who now likely has a significant elbow surgery ahead of him to make sure he can still throw a football is not someone I want the team I root for to acquire in a trade. And I'd imagine the 49ers would be content letting him sit on IR all of next year to give Lance a full season with no QB controversy if they don't bring in a marquee veteran. Purdy would then be a solid 2024 season insurance policy if Lance falls on his face and proves not to be their franchise quarterback.
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but I don't buy that Rodgers will knock the draft day chip off his shoulder yet. The 49ers GM, front office, coaches, and even the owner who drafted Smith over Rodgers are loooooong gone - heck the offensive coordinator for the 49ers at the time was McCarthy, and Rodgers didn't demand a trade when he was hired as the Packers' coach. I actually think San Fran makes alot of sense for Rodgers - roster ready-made to win now, he's a bay area kid, etc....However, I doubt the 49ers want to pull off the cap gymnastics it would take along with sending the limited high draft capital they have to land him. Purdy is essentially out for next season and Lance is a talented question mark with about as much starting QB experience as Love has. At the end of the day, I think if Rodgers gets traded it will be to a different team that can offer up more attractive draft capital and have more salary cap flexibility than the 49ers - but a trade there won't fall through because Rodgers was steamed he wasn't picked 1st overall by that team almost 20 years ago.
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Monte Harrison back with the Brewers
Fear The Chorizo replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The contract extension for Yelich should never be considered as part of the trade that brought him here - had the Brewers just stuck with the original contract Yelich had, they could've actually declined a team option heading into the 2022 season and all the discussion about how to extend Woodruff, Burnes, or Adames would be somewhat more realistic. Extending Yelich to a megadeal before he proved he was the same player post injury doesn't negate the fact the trade was worse than highway robbery in terms of sending a pile of prospects that amounted to zilch for the league's MVP in 2018, who arguably put up a better statistical season in 2019 before fouling a ball off his kneecap. -
Packers failure to develop players
Fear The Chorizo replied to Hacksaw Jim Duggan's topic in Other Sports
It's not so much developing players at the NFL level - players 'develop' during their 3-5 years in college. If there's any development going on at the NFL level from a coaching perspective, it's with uber-talented but raw prospects drafted solely because of their potential high in the draft (Gary) or practice squad guys who have to fight tooth and nail to continue earning an NFL paycheck. I think it's about consistently finding players who can hold down NFL roster spots in the top 4 rounds of every draft, and then hitting a home run with at least 1 pick a draft. Gute has hit some home runs (Jenkins, Alexander, Gary, Walker, Watson?), but has struggled to maximize value and fit with middle round picks in a few drafts. Those are the guys some people may view as players that develop into NFL starters based on their draft profile, but in reality it's just that those are the players who may not be the most talented/athletically gifted at certain positions but they can play well at the NFL level in the right system. -
I think if the Packers can get a draft pick anywhere in the 1st of this year's draft + future later round picks, they should trade Rodgers. I think he still has a couple really good seasons left in the tank, but he's no longer the caliber of QB who can carry a flawed team on a playoff run - even though he's paid like one. Because of that, I think what's best for both Rodgers and the Packers is for him to finish his career elsewhere...pretty much every HOF-caliber quarterback in the past 20 years hasn't finished their career with their original team, with salary cap limitations it's almost impossible to pull that off without completely destroring a roster once Father Time finally takes a great quarterback out to pasture. Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but I also think it's a bad idea for a team that plays in a cold weather town to rely on an old quarterback to win them home playoff games in January. Favre showed signs of disliking the cold towards the end of his Packers tenure despite playing fantastic in the elements when he was younger, and I think the same goes for Rodgers. Hell, Brady beat Rodgers in Lambeau to go to the Super Bowl as an old man, but he threw 3 second half picks to keep the game close.
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My 4 hr estimate is more based on anecdotal, not actual average times....I would say the college game could learn a thing or two about clock rules from the NFL so their game lengths are shortened. It just feels like the game length could be reduced below 3 hrs in time on average if there weren't so many random stoppages. The one thing I don't like with the eye from the sky quick corrections is that it may skew in the favor of one team or another, even if that's inadvertent. The unexpected whistles and stoppages in play may not take up too much more time, but they do impact the flow of the game. And oftentimes those eye in the sky reviews are still limited by initial camera angles - for example that Smith one handed catch early in the Eagles/49ers game leading to the Eagles 1st touchdown didn't have the camera angle shown later in the broadcast for a quick eye in the sky review and correction. However, I'd argue that play was consequential enough to the game where the 49ers coach should have thrown the red challenge flag out immediately after it was apparent Smith himself was urging the Eagles to rush up to the line of scrimmage to run a play quickly, because he wasn't sure he caught the ball.
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So is this still because it got really cold over a month ago during the typical refinery holiday shutdown period, or is it more due to the fact they've stopped drawing from the SPR for a few weeks and wasted the previous year not getting domestic production capacity (both extraction and more importantly refining) to a place where it could keep up with demand? And this is before any actual small volume purchases to start refilling the SPR directly reduce available crude for fuel refining. If we thought gas prices were bad last spring/early summer, I think this year's saying "hold my beer", even with economic output sputtering.
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A significant chunk of the Packers' increased revenue in recent years comes from the Titletown district and non-gameday events it hosts year round. Pretty sure there are paying customers visiting the Lambeau field area bit more than the dozen or so pre-, regular and postseason home game dates each year. Is the argument that the Packers should tear all that down and sell the property so they aren't generating that revenue anymore? The salary cap in 2001 was roughly $65M and it's about to go up to $225M....so yes, a business should do everything it can to increase revenues and in turn produce a better product for its customers - in the case of a pro sports franchise that includes the team on the field and all the other fan/local customer experiences. And who cares whether or not Packer front office staff have guaranteed salaries? There are tons of careers where you make what you earn based on performance/results year to year. I actually think that model for certain front office staff responsible for the business side of the Packers is a good thing.
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Monte Harrison back with the Brewers
Fear The Chorizo replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Does this mean we won the trade now? -
Yes, but Miley and Anderson and Winker and Contreras were the guys the Brewers brought in, and they'd be so much better had they spent way more $$ to bring other names in with a similar expected performance for 2023. How dare they be so cheap! Wait, they better not raise ticket prices to 75% of what the Cubs and Cards tickets cost to try and get their gameday revenues in a more competitive range to their primary divisional opponents? How dare they! Love these dead of winter baseball financial arguments...
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The Mets' top 5 starting pitchers + their closer will have a combined 2023 salary of about $143 Million dollars, almost assuredly much higher than what the entire Brewers' team payroll will be. 6 players out-earning a 40 man roster...and the hilarious thing is it's an almost guarantee the Mets will be in the trade market looking for starting pitching and bullpen help at this year's deadline, because all that money is going to a mix of ancient star veteran arms and UCL's held together by chicken wire. When the financial scales are so uneven on the input side based on market size and team revenues, why even try to balance out the onfield payroll side if you're a small market team? If you try to spend like the big boys you'll get overwhelmed anyway by deeper pockets - the better approach is to 'build a better mousetrap' on the front end of the organization to bring a steady stream of talent in before it gets incredibly expensive. Like it or not, the Brewers are already saddled with a longterm megadeal with Yelich, and as an organization they're going to have an incredibly difficult time affording a second one. I don't see the point in arguing anything otherwise, because it would be fantasyland.
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A game that has 60 minutes of running clock often takes about 4 hours to play - adding more technology/eye from the sky reviews is going impact the watchability of the game. You can't do reviews to the level you want without impacting pace of play. My current issue with NFL refereeing is there are so many rules that depending on specific points of emphasis season to season, there are penalties that often get overlooked - to me this season's culprit is PI's occurring when the pass is in the air. They focused heavily on illegal contact penalties throughout the season, flagging DBs at times who made incidential contact on a receiver 8 yards downfield, but then they seemed to have lost the ability to throw PI flags when DB's are grabbing jerseys or arms to either prevent separation or impact a catch. Maybe that just showed up more this season watching the Packers due to not getting benefit of calls with rookie receivers and not Davante Adams looking for those flags, but it seemed like similar stuff was happening with other teams in the playoffs, too. I'd prefer the NFL adopt modified college PI/illegal contact rules, where DBs can maintain contact with a receiver anywhere on the field until the ball is in the air, but then PI remains a spot foul and not just a 15 yard penalty for a PI on a deep pass to prevent a huge play/TD.
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To me the 49ers are no different than the Packers the past few seasons - their roster is just structured differently. Both are really good teams that run into an opponent in the playoffs that can exploit a weakness and knock them out, leaving them with no title despite a talented roster. The Super Bowl is going to be a really good game, and honestly I think I'd favor the eagles over either of the afc teams - didn't think I'd say that before today.
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I guess we'll just agree to disagree on how good they were during the 2021 season, and we're apparently 1 season apart from wanting the short rebuild to happen. They can do the same thing you're talking about this offseason, and frankly the biggest return value the Packers can receive by trading Rodgers is some short term cap relief and longer term cap stability for no longer having to string veteran contracts out indefinitely.
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What exactly is your point? GB had the top seed in the NFC despite their mash unit roster last season, because they did have solid depth at some of those positions. However, their injury-riddled offensive line got whooped against the 49ers and it allowed the game to stay close until a special teams disaster swung it away from the Packers. Is your point then that any veteran team that doesn't win a Super Bowl has to be blown up immediately the next offseason to start from scratch? No team in the NFL can afford to have capable backups at every position - if you get a rash of injuries at key positions, you aren't winning a Super Bowl. The 49ers have reached the NFC title game with a loaded roster, and their key in-season injuries were to a talented but inexperienced quarterback who still needs development at the NFL level, and to their middling veteran back quarterback who has always been viewed as someone who could lose you a big game but not win one. Sometimes elite quarterback play can overcome a bunch of players on IR to win a Super Bowl, but oftentimes those teams come up short. Ask Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes about that in recent seasons. The NFL playoffs are one game and done scenarios - frankly anything can happen to even the best constructed teams (like a blocked punt for a TD, or a helmet catch to ruin an undefeated season in the Super Bowl, etc) to knock them off. Being good enough to have the top seed in a conference, to me at least, means your roster is pretty good and worth seeing if you can tweak it to improve rather than tear it down..
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You act like Rodgers somehow used smoke and mirrors to win consecutive MVP awards leading a putrid offense - the absence of Bakhtiari and the weird O line shuffling decisions the Packers made really hurt them in both of their home playoff losses against the 49ers (Jenkins and Myers were also on IR in last year's game) and the Buccaneers, who had elite pass rushes. One of the thoughts for running it back for 2023 was that the line would be solidified with Bakh, Jenkins, and Myers returning. The Packers' offense carried that team most of the 2021 season - the fact the defense was winning them the game once the 49ers started doubling Adams until the special teams disaster should tell you that the roster was good enough to give it another shot. And Rodgers was one of the highest paid players in football before the extension, for most of his career frankly - The Packers were going to have significant cap issues heading into the start of the 2022 league year even if they traded Rodgers. The extension made his cap hit for the 2022 season palatable, so it made sense to do it. I also doubt the Packers knew for certain Adams wasn't coming back when they gave Rodgers the extension - IIRC Rodgers was surprised as well that #17 was dealt right after the ink dried on his new contract.
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I don't get the "run it back" people with Rodgers. With the cap problems, they need to do a re-set. They needed to do it last year and are now paying the price. In the NFL, you run it back until it's obvious the roster is broken beyond repair, and then you take your medicine as an organization. It's not MLB, where you need to manage the roster with an eye on seasons 3-4 years down the road from both a competitive and financial standpoint. Last offseason, it wasn't obvious the roster was broken, so I think they made the right decision keeping the league MVP around and delaying the big roster turnover that we all know is inevitable when your team has been built for years around the comfort of having an elite quarterback leading it. This offseason, I think it's a different story, and it's time to do a re-set. I don't get the people who say the Packers waited too long to trade Rodgers and they won't get enough value in return for him - He won 4 league MVPs and was one of the best 5 players in the NFL for most of his career as starting quarterback for the Packers, including the 2020 and 2021 seasons. I for one thought after the 2019 season he was in the twilight of his career and the Packers would've been wise to explore a trade then, and he proved me wrong. I'd argue they got plenty of value by keeping him a Packer until he demonstrated he's no longer that caliber of game-altering and roster-boosting player.
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There's no way Love's situation mirrors Cousins, and there's no way Love gets franchised. He'll either prove to be good enough to extend ahead of time or he'll wash out after the 2024 season - Cousins' rookie deal was only for 4 seasons since he was a 4th round pick, so Washington had to start franchising him a full season earlier than what GB would potentially have to do with Love. And that 5th year option will be closer to $20M, not $30...while it's not ideal to commit that to a quarterback with 1 career start that's more or less the going rate for a decent quarterback and would be a huge discount to what they're paying Rodgers. Knowing Love's 4th year is still incredibly team friendly makes that 5th year option a no brainer, IMO. Even if he's no good, Love will at minimum serve as a bridge to the next quarterback picked to be the longterm starter for the 2025 season....if that's the case, the next QB drafted high will likely be picked by a new GM.
