Fear The Chorizo

The pitch repertoire absolutely changed how LH hitters have fared against Taillon this year - he has stated so multiple times. I also won't argue that a partial year of splits (Taillon was injured a good chunk of this season) isn't statistically significant in a vacuum - but I think it's worth more than factoring what Taillon did as a Pirate 8-9 seasons ago when he was a completely different pitcher throwing high 90s than he is now. His 2023 and 2024 seasons he was nails on righties and below average against lefties - 2025 was polar opposite. If he didn't dramatically improve against lefties this year, he probably isn't starting any playoff games for the Cubs. I just hope he comes out a bit rusty and the Brewers find holes with solid contact this afternoon

Taillon had very neutral splits for most of his career, then had a couple seasons where he was much tougher on righties than lefties....then in 2025 the changeup became a much larger part of his pitch mix that dramatically improved how he's fared against lefties. If we're sample size hunting for today's game, I don't care what he did up through 2022, or 2023-2024 seasons for that matter, when he was a different pitcher than he's been in 2025 with that changeup facing lefties.

I think any lineup with Chourio in it at this point disqualifies it as a "sunday lineup". Lockridge starting today likely has to do with a mix of defense and Perkins' struggles against the Cub starter - once Taillon is out of this game, having bench bat options of Perkins and Collins (both switch hitters) along with Vaughn to plug in against relievers at certain spots of the game puts the Brewers in a better position than if Lockridge was one of those pinch hitters. Maybe it's also a hunch on Murphy's end, too. But as others have posted, Taillon has been more effective against LH hitters - which unless we'd want both Perkins and Collins to reverse switch hit, they would be hitting lefthanded. I'd be very surprised to see Lockridge finish this game or even stay in it beyond the first time his spot in the order is up against a pitcher other than Taillon....unless he's got a couple hits, of course!

NE wind off the lake is blowing straight in from center. Wrigley will play big today - although line shots to left and right aren't going to get knocked down as much if they don't get up above the stands. Liking this lineup as it prioritizes defense/speed and isn't too right/lefty weighted - CC is going to go bullpen crazy this game, and having a mix of lefties and righties to start with gives the Brewers balance all game long.

The Cubs were 56-48 from June through the end of the regular season once their teamwide offensive onslaught started regressing to their actual talent level, while the Brewers were 66-37 - which includes a 12-12 september while coasting to the finish line. It should also be noted that as the Brewers were creeping up on the Cubs in the standings in late June, all we heard about was how the difference in schedule strength would likely sink the Brewers compared to what was left on the Cub schedule. The exact opposite happened. The fact that the Brewers went on an extended hot streak through what was perceived to be a difficult stretch of their schedule while the Cubs treaded water through what was supposed to be a cakewalk of a 2nd half slate of games should make it all the more obvious that there is a significant gap between the teams when it comes to talent and roster construction. Vaughn was a former 3rd overall pick. Turang was a 1st round pick out of high school who had some helium as a junior to be the 1st overall pick. Frelick was a 1st rounder. Chourio is a generational talent. These guys are far from unknown talent. There is also pitching talent all over the roster with stuff that can mow through playoff lineups. And, there is more impact talent in the minors league system on its way, as the Brewers are among the best systems in all of baseball. Just because the payroll for this roster isnt $200+ million doesnt mean the Brewer roster isn't better than the Cubs. I do agree that the Cubs have made some questionable decisions on who to hand bags of money to - starting with their manager. I also think pitching injuries have really hamstrung the Cubs in the rotation....but then again after seeing Steele's workload and what they did with Horton in terms of innings pitched jumps it was pretty predictable (also why I think Boyd is scuffling down the stretch). Ill point out the Brewers have dealt with plenty of significant pitching injuries this season, too. All that being said, would it surprise me to see the Cubs win today and then we're all on pins and needles about losing this series? Not at all, it's playoff baseball. An 83 win dog of a Cardinal team won a world series. Quite frankly it has and always will be the Dodgers and everyone else in the national league until baseball's insane economic model gets fixed. But it's damn fun rooting for a Brewer team that plays hard and can win games so many different ways.

Well, he's not on the NLDS roster because of injury...already biting them. They put him on the Justin Steele workload plan

Wasnt referencing the video per say, as much as the sentiment by cub fans in general - particularly on their ns baseball board.

If I didn't live amongst Cub fans for roughly half of my life, I'd struggle to understand what sort of logic they apply in assuming their team is just way better than the Brewers, and at some point the Brewers "luck" would run out and the Cubs will come out ahead of Milwaukee in the standings. There's this belief on their end that the Brewers' success "isn't sustainable" - but they fail to see how much of the current state of the Brewer organization is incredibly sustainable in terms of draft and develop, increased quality minor league depth, an eye for pitching from all kinds of spots, and a MLB roster that is currently loaded with young players who may not be able to do 1 thing at an elite level, but can do many things well.

Glad the Jags found a way to win that game - I love Andy Reid, but I'm about done with the rest of the Swifties...ive got 0 faith in the rest of the AFC to keep them from another deep playoff run, but maybe the injury bug will bite the right guys in KC to spare us in January.

Unless they want to get nuts and go bullpen - but Taillon should be the starter. Greg probably took him out at least 2 innings too early in their game 3 against the Padres, so he's more than rested. You'd think they have to go with a righty starter to change things up, too.

Has to be Taillon, right?

PCA attempting to rob the Chourio HR that smacked the wall on a line literally 15-20 feet over his glove is a gif that will hopefully live on forever. That play is a perfect depiction for how this series has gone so far.

That was part of my calculus for suggesting we might see Miz instead of Priester tonight once Ashby was done before the game started - Wrigley might be playing like a pitchers park Wednesday. Get the sinkerballer going in game 3 and let the defense go to work.

TV execs dont want it because its Milwaukee, but this team has so much going for it in terms of young and exciting players contributing everywhere on this roster, plus some veteran star power. Chourio would already be in the HOF if he was doing this as a 21 yr old Yankee or Dodger in the playoffs. And Miz coming out throwing 103-104?

There's this vibe of "no matter what we do, they are going to wind up finding a way to one-up us" coming from the Cubs dugout. It's glorious

They do still have the regular season tiebreaker, so there's that, too.

Priester for game 3 with probably everyone but Miz available in the pen...maybe give Ashby an extra day and have Gasser ready? Cubs have to be starting Taillon Tuesday, right? And half their key relievers havent even pitched yet this series.

Playing chess, not checkers....several key cub pen arms havent yet pitched because of that - they'll be rusty Wednesday in wrigley

Lets bat around this inning

And of course, since then the manager market hasn't moved an inch. I also would like to hear David Ross' opinion on how charitable Greg was taking the bag.

Its important both of those guys get work in now, too.

Lets get 6 more outs and close all but one shoulder on I94 south

Lol - I went back and fixed it....but definitely a WOAH SOLVED moment there

I hate the Cubs...but I have a new appreciation for Hoerner....that guy consistently puts together good ABs and is annoying in a good way as a hitter on a rival

I feel like one of Miz's starts the average velocity was like triple digits for the whole game, which had Uribe, Koenig, and McGill pitch in it