Fear The Chorizo

Yelich hasn't deserved everyday ABs for quite awhile this season - and it's because his back and age has made him a shell of the player who would be a great fit at the top of this lineup. They need to find a legitimate reason to put Yelich on the IL for awhile, and chronic back issues are more than legitimate - maybe a few weeks off gets him back to being a positive offensively - right now he's an anchor. Getting Yelich off the active roster gives Bauers and Vaughn platoon-advantaged everyday at bats and get the best Brewers OF (offensively and defensively) on the field regularly. Honestly, it's the time to have that tough conversation with a player who has to know his own eyes aren't deceiving him, either.

Looking like ill be up at a resort near Ely after all for my yearly BWCA trip in a couple weeks, as day use permits are gradually being reopened. Will be fishing really close to areas that burned, so interested in seeing the extent. Rainy period up there over the past two weeks really helped get fires in and closer to the border under contol.

The longterm solution for this is to either find a way to include Lockridge in a trade package for a reliever/fringe prospect from a team in need of a utility OF in wildcard contention, or be bold and move frelick now as part of a package for an impact arm even if he's injured. Out of it teams looking for a quick mlb roster upgrade with years left of control would value frelick. I wouldnt mind seeing him in a tiger or padre uniform....or he would be a perfect add for Boston this offseason (if there is an offseason) I say this not because I dislike Frelick and what he can bring to the brewers when he's healthy and playing well - its because Lara is a much better player than Frelick right now and I want the best players on the field as much as possible at the MLB level when theyre ready. Mitchell is proving what he can do when he is healthy and playing most days and frelick should not take starts away from him, either. Optioning Lara to make room for lockridge cannot happen - perkins needs to go back down

Did the model account for Mason Miller and Skubal being added to this roster in the next week? 😉 Honestly, anything Fangraphs publishes related to projected records and the Brewers is, well, wrong. That's been proven over and over and over again. There will always be outliers across the league, but when one team consistently overperforms your projection - your model is wrong for that team. When you don't try to improve that at all and insist on getting the same wrong result from a projection model that is bad, I'm sorry you lose alot of credibility.

gotta blow this one open this inning, or I don't like how this game would be feeling

Giving up 4 runs in a game isn't the end of the world, and the Brewers largely hit into some tough luck themselves with all the warning track fly balls and a few diving plays - tons of flyball outs last night that a centimeter different on the barrel are home runs in that park. can't win 'em all

Exactly my point - calendar years in the majors and service time calcs are different - but its obviously a reason woodruff will do whatever he can to sign another 2 year MLB contract predicated on him rehabbing all of 2027 and part of 2028 before seeing if he can actually pitch at the highest level again. He could accrue that 10 years time without ever truly being able to pitch again in the majors with IL time. I hope he finds a team that will give him that shot - i just dont want it to be the brewers doing it. Lets be honest - his career has been extended the last 3 years because of this organization.

Don't think this has been mentioned specifically in this thread, and sorry if it has - i believe this is Woodruff's 9th year in MLB....10 years service time gets you fully vested in MLB's player pension system, health care for life, etc... Pretty solid reasons to figure out how to get a MLB contract somehow next year for himself

The Brewers are too good as an organization at developing and acquiring pitching talent to perform at far less than whatever the WAR-based veteran contract value is for high end starters to mess around with paying "market value" $$$ for arms that are past their prime and broken down. It sucks for Woodruff as a person and ive always rooted for him, but thats reality.

His 2024-2025 contract after his 1st shoulder surgery was a MLB deal. He wont sign a miLB contract with a team for 1 year just to rehab, it would be some sort of two year MLB deal that would require rostering him for periods of time on the 40 man, leading to whatever organization signs him doing roster gymnastics with healthy players to avoid losing them before tossing him onto the 60 day IL. If other teams arent willing to do that, he'll probably be forced into retirement. With the amount of talent the brewers have in their system, it just makes zero sense to do that song and dance with Woodruff into summer 2028.

They paid him $22M this year for 9 starts. They paid him $2.5 M to rehab all of 2024 so they could pay him $15M for 12 starts in 2025 His injury history tells me no contract structuring makes sense for the Brewers' end to keep him around past this season. Good for him he can get this second shoulder surgery done now and still have 4 months to rehab within the Brewers' org and stay with the team until the league year ends. You don't put a mid-30's guy coming off his second shoulder surgery on a contract you think could squeak into the bullpen 2 seasons from now just because he hit a HR of Kershaw in the NLCS in 2018.

The earliest Woodruff could be back pitching in the major leagues is sometime in 2028. When you look at the logjam of young arms the Brewers have between mlb and upper minors and then factor in another 1.5 seasons of development for guys further down the farm, I dont see why anyone would want to give Woodruff a contract to rehab all of next season and maybe be good enough to win a roster spot in 2028. He has been a great Brewer - its obvious his best days on the mound are behind him. If he wants to keep trying to play, wish him the best after this season ends and move on.

obvious that Murph wants lefties in the lineup as much as possible despite Peralta's career platoon splits being pretty much identical....and he's ok with a weaker OF defense with Miz on the mound likely striking a ton of Mets out. As for Yelich leading off and DH-ing....I'm not a fan of either, so that means he probably has 3 hits and a bomb tonight.

Yes, agreed on all points - if VAR is going to be applied to offsides calls in soccer, then an attacking player needs to be completely clear of any defender to be offsides. This isn't the NFL where the goal line and all line to gain markers are set across the entire field at the start of each play. The moving offsides line based on where defenders move to during play shouldn't create gift offsides calls when an attacker has one of his hands offsides while the rest of that player is onsides. And there has to be a limit to what VAR can initiate on non-calls being put under review that stops play and alters goals scored. The goal Egypt had taken off their ledger against Argentina for a foul that wasn't called on the exact opposite side of the pitch from where Egypt's counter attack led to a goal was absurd - and the VAR official likely only takes that to review because the Argentinean team of thugs threw a hissy fit about the call in effort to stay in the game. They wound up coming back against a turtling Egyptian squad and winning, kudos to that, but they once again showed their true colors after the Final ended yesterday. It's one thing for VAR to look at called fouls to determine if they warrant a red card, but I dislike non-calls being subject to review because so often what happens in super slow motion doesn't take into account the flow or intent of a play (exactly the Balogun play which wasn't called a foul, that resulted in a VAR red card).

The Cubs could throw their literal kitchen sink of prospects at Detroit, and multiple other teams could outbid them simply by upping their ante from one of their B level prospects to an A level one. If the Tigers wind up trading Skubal, it won't be to the Cubs

No way I'm dealing Sproat - if you're thinking it would take some combination of that type of 5 players I think you're way overvaluing 2 months + playoffs of Skubal....and I think he is an arm worth overpaying for on a rental this particular year.....part of that calculus has to do with keeping him off your main postseason rival's roster but also giving the team it's best chance to win a WS the season before what feels like alot of uncertainty with how the financial and personnel control playing fields will be changing.

Bumping this one back up to the top - because even if the Tigers are now "just" 6.5 back in a bad division's standings, they'd still have 3 teams to climb over to win it...and they aren't winning an AL wildcard spot. Skubal dominated last time out and will likely have two more starts before the trade deadline - I think if after his next start he looks like he did against the Angels and the Tigers aren't any closer in the division standings, the Brewers gotta make a serious play for him. It's a rental, but adding him would come at a time when the Brewer rotation needs a horse - and he's pitching for a mega contract whenever the CBA gets sorted out. It will be expensive, because I'm sure the Dodgers and other teams will be in the mix - but pairing a young MLB talent with a couple talented but blocked prospects....thinking along the lines of Henderson or Crow, Jett Williams, and a low minors flyer....does that get it done and would you make that trade? I would, knowing both the quality and depth of the Brewers' system right now is going to force some difficult rostering decisions on that 40 man unless you plan on some selective thinning by trading them away.

I dont think any of that planning stuff for roster management is worth it given a very high likelihood ther isnt a normal offseason with the CBA issues going on.

My gut tells me he's got nobody to sign and rehab with since there will be a lockout that could leak into a strike-shortened 2027 season. Ill say this with the absolute best intentions, because i love Woody....if he signs another MLB contract, great for him - but it better not be with the Brewers.

Wouldn't need to be across the entire country - focus on the areas previously disturbed by logging/human activity first and then expand that footprint around more remote areas of human development. A huge portion of what you describe in Canada's forest hasn't been heavily logged, and while wildfires do occur in those areas they don't carry the property damage risk that disturbed forests closer to towns/homes/resorts do.

I agree with some of this, strongly disagree with other parts of it. Logging practices 100+ years ago that were done in a rushed effort to supply development with raw materials in the midwest created many of these problems, and inevitable population growth into areas that are historically prone to wildfires are also to blame. I do agree allowing these wilderness areas to ultimately return to their original state is the longterm goal, but for that to happen without risking unnecessary property damage and human health risks over time, a measured approach to forest management in areas that were significantly altered by clearcutting practices is required. And historically, wildfires were just as intense and were far more expansive - there just weren't as many people on this planet and living near many of these wildfire-prone areas. IMO using manmade climate change to explain away annual wildfires originating in portions of Canada and US that are now wilderness areas that were historically logged heavily and now sit completely unmanaged, creating a reactionary firefighting approach, is lazy - and quite frankly fails to focus on what measures can be done by humans to reduce risk as these forests work their way back towards equilibrium conditions (which by the way will and should always include wildfires). Limited snow cover in this part of the country the past few years is a growing issue and concern that has played a role in spring and summer wildfire risk, but that comes and goes in cycles that have occurred forever. Weather has typically played the chief role in when/where wildfires occur before humans got the idea they can control it. p.s. - heavy rains overnight up there along the US/Canada border, and hope that at least helps knock things back and give firefighting teams more time to get control of what's burning. Air quality in my area has improved a ton mainly due to a wind direction shift, I know it's still not great in many other parts of the country rn from this.

One of these fires at/near the BWCA was likely started by a controlled burn that never fully extinguished - so yes controlled burns are happening. The problem with this material is the window to do controlled burns and have any hope to actually control them is very, very small due to how much dead and standing timber there is over such a vast area. So controlled burns are very small and limited to areas deemed too close to civilization/human development to risk a natural wildfire ripping through it unchecked. Methods like creating extensive fire rows/fuel breaks and logging roads/lanes via targeted logging would also provide better access for responder/firefighting equipment and would be great additions to controlled burns, and could be done on a much larger scale without having to light things on fire - and revenue from that logging could be used by forest services to cover the costs to perform those activities. Those things are not occurring at the levels necessary to prevent us from breathing woodsmoke in the upper midwest a few months each summer on what now feels like an annual basis.

Much of the cause goes back many, many decades when portions of these areas (including the boundary waters) were heavily logged and clearcut when they were more mature and established forests. Then these areas saw too-dense regrowth of smaller spruce and other boreal type vegetation. A significant spruce budworm outbreak naturally follwed that, which decimated and killed off a ton of these smaller trees, particularly across the BWCA, leaving what amounts to a tinderbox of dead and/or diseased, standing small pine trees - wood that rots incredibly slowly and readily ignites. There has been a period of drought in the region, but the main issue is all the dead and densely packed timber through wilderness areas that have seen little to no forest management in recent decades - when lightning rolls through, it's like lighting matches on pine straw and the density of dead and dry fuel is going to cause wildfires. I'm supposed to be up in the BWCA in mid August and remain hopeful these fires (at least those near Ely area) get contained to the point where entry permits arent cancelled for my trip....but local outfitters and people who live up there will all tell you this is going to keep happening until the dead and standing pine wood is significantly thinned out.

Is that gas price hope based on your region, or the US on average? If it's US on average it won't get that low because of how much blue states tax it, and the west coast currently has a self-inflicted supply mess on its hands regardless of what is going on in Hormuz. Last time it was $2.50-$2.75 a gallon nationally for more than a hot second, we were in year 2 of the two weeks to stop the spread routine that cratered demand 5-6 years ago.

If they did they were way off...3.5% in June.