Fear The Chorizo

A contender for what? A marginal shot at winning the 2nd weakest division in baseball? The Cubs are having a decent season and have an improved farm system (really nowhere for that to go but up based on where it was a couple years ago), but for a large market team playing in a small market division I don't see them being in a great spot for consistent success longterm. They somehow have a payroll pushing $200M dollars with a roster loaded up with those spare parts/young nobody-types. Happ is going to go from an $11M salary this year to $20M, will the Cubs exercise the $14M option for Hendricks next year? Bellinger is a pending FA assuming he doesn't agree to that mutual 2024 option and I think the Cubs may throw way more $$ than they should to keep him around. Taillon is in year one of a 4 year contract that looks brutal based on his near 6 ERA this season. Their best starter, Steele, isn't even in arbitration yet and he's 28 and about to log a ton more innings than he ever has in his career...his agent is going to be demanding some sort of longterm contract extension, or at minimum his payroll hit will be climbing rapidly each of the next 4 seasons. Of course, the Cubs can afford payroll bumps more than the Brewers - but they are still a team that should be in rebuild/retool mode looking for better longterm options at a bunch of spots on their roster.

Over the last month the top nine position players have 70+ PA each. After that it is Caratini (32), Wiemer (32), Tellez (24), Anderson (16), Miller (3). I get Caratini's ABs are limited as Burnes' personal catcher and with Contreras playing so well, and Rowdy just got back - so those guys aren't included in what I'm about to say... Maybe the top 9 position players have so many more PAs than Wiemer, Anderson, and Miller because those 3 shouldn't be on the MLB roster, and that's been the case now for quite some time? The Brewers are rolling with 14 pitchers, one of them being completely underserving of a roster spot, along with 14 position players - three of which really don't see much of any playing time that leads to getting steady at bats. The current rules force the Brewers to "only" carry 14 pitchers on the active 28 man roster, otherwise their current 40 man limitations would probably have them carrying 15 or even 16. Because of that, the Brewers have an expanded September roster that winds up leading to bad late game decisions because it handcuffed with a useless reliever and 3 position players who aren't hitting that are still on the MLB roster because the 40 man construction is a mess. Why Wiemer hasn't been sent down at any point since the end of the trade deadline is kind of bonkers - he plays really good defense but Taylor and Frelick are fine defensive OFs, too - and they've been hitting. Canha has come on offensively so he takes some corner OF playing time too. There are better options to improve the MLB active roster internally that would require some 40 man roster shuffling the Brewers seem deadset on avoiding. And that's not including adding prospects to the 40 man for the 1st time in their careers and starting their service clocks. It is what it is and my frustration won't change that. Looks like Julio, Small and JBB all pitched at Nashville tonight so maybe Eric gets the call back up. Only other pitcher on the 40 man is Junk. Why not Toro, or DFA Winker and add Donaldson or Hiura to the 40 man - why does it need to be Lauer, who isn't pitching well in AAA to replace a different bad pitcher when they have an off day after tomorrow's game? They'll need all the pitching they can get down the stretch, but they could DFA Anderson, Miller, and/or others to bolster the pen once Ashby or Houser are ready to return.

Yes there is - they just chose not to give Hiura an opportunity to do so because they torched through his options like a kid in a candy store the last few years. I liked the Santana trade because of concerns with Rowdy at the time and was ok with acquiring Canha despite strongly feeling like the Brewers could have gotten the same offensive production from Hiura. I didn't feel like either move should have prevented the Brewers from getting Hiura back up to the Majors in early August. but I digress... The main issue I have is the Brewers' insistence for their expanded 28 man roster having to include 14 pitchers when they don't have 14 arms worthy of pitching in the majors currently on the 40 man due to IL/rehabs (Teheran, Ashby, Houser, Lauer, etc) or a reluctance to add worthy prospects to the 40 man for the first time (Gasser) while keeping Winker on the 40 man in quasi rehab stint/IL purgatory, where this zero chance of him contributing anything positive to the MLB club. By taking that approach the Brewers wind up with a trashfire at the end of their pen for a handful of important early September games that does them more harm than good - maybe not directly in the W/L column but unnecessary use of key relievers at a time when extra rest for them is crucial. That active roster spot would be much better served during this stretch that had enough off days to rest arms for a 15th position player that would provide more value to the MLB club than a mop up guy who can't be counted on to mop up. Have to think Ashby might be in line for a callup if he's healthy after another rehab appearance or two to solidify the pen during this upcoming stretch of games - at least to provide a guy you know can get outs in lower leverage situations while he rounds into form. This doesn't even factor in Donaldson, who really hasn't done much in a few games at AAA while Monasterio has been hitting better.

Hopefully Clayton Andrews is eager to help the Sounds' playoff push, and hopefully he's back with the team down in AAA before their current game even ends. No good reason whatsoever for him to stay up

One of those series where taking 2 of 3 is more than fine for the standings but might still feel disappointing...huge pitching advantages all 3 games.

Honestly I'd rather the Cubs win today to keep the Reds at arms length...better for the brewers for neither of those two teams to get white hot so they both can't make up ground as the calendar churns through september

no freebies Devin - too much HR pop in this lineup

Saw that - but he did his job and most of that was probably blowing off steam instead of going after his teammate for blowing that play...just giving Miller a little reminder that he got the best of him.

I guess that's the optimal outcome with a team who values defensive versatility out of the DH position on the roster... Good takes from Wiemer that AB

you could tell he was triple guessing himself on that grounder...do I run and tag 3rd, fire to 2nd, or go to 1st to end the inning? He was in between with his feet on what he was doing and flat out forgot to field the ball take the gift

He's in their 2024 rotation if he is healthy next spring, no doubt.

I think one solution may be for the next CBA to do away with the franchise tag altogether and replace it with 5th year options available for all players drafted, but keep the value tied to the same structuring the current 1st round contracts have...meaning if a 2nd or 4th round pick becomes an instant stud, the team who drafted him has the option of adding a 5th year on that rookie deal at a premium salary amount for that position grouping...that 5th year option is also a common springboard to get that life-changing longterm extension, and it gives both organizations and players time to work out a longterm deal that sets the player up for life and that makes sense for the team's salary cap structuring. Not having the 5th year option means impact players on cheaper rookie deals are instantly in contract purgatory trying to force their way out of a franchise tag or get traded - for the case of RBs and many other position groups, a one-year guaranteed franchise tag salary isn't a great contract to play under due to injury/longevity risk and the fact the best players at those positions don't have stratospherically high annual salaries. I would think RBs in particular would much rather have a simple 5th year option tied into their rookie deals regardless of where they were drafted, then know they'd either be a UFA after year 4 or worst case after year 5 in the league.

At this point I'm pretty certain the only reason Wiemer hasn't been sent down to AAA is he's going to be the odd man out in the outfield glut assuming Mitchell gets healthy and Chourio is knocking on the MLB door at some point next season, and the Brewers plan to either trade Wiemer this offseason or are planning for him to start next year in AAA and preserve his MiLB options.

There was alot of back and forth in the NL Central Discussion thread about the possibility of a division winner finishing under 0.500. In looking at the remaining schedules for the Twins and Guardians, that is a very legit possibility in the AL Central.

I think one way to address this from becoming a recurring thing is to freeze team payroll values used for luxury tax consideration at the date of the Aug 1 trade deadline. If a team is a marginal contender but also mindful of where it sits from a payroll luxury tax perspective, make them decide whether to buy or sell at the end of July and have a competent plan. It's obvious the Angels are doing this primarily to crawl back under the luxury tax payroll threshold so they will get a better comp pick when Ohtani signs elsewhere and also to reset the luxury tax penalty structure for being over it consecutive years. I honestly could care less if a team with a trash fire front office occasionally opts to go this route under the current CBA to try and save a few bucks after they've been igniting $$ with nothing worthwhile to show for it - I don't see this being the new normal for teams that fall out of the race that happen to have a ton of expensive veterans set to become free agents who also aren't worth making QOs to. If nothing else, the fact the Angels have a ton of those guys, plus a few other veterans nobody would touch if they were DFA-d because of their bloated remaining contracts, proves the point of how poorly they are run as an organization.

Those losses were 1 run variety against a better offensive team that also couldn't score - both L's could have been w's with slightly better luck in situations where hard hit balls consistently turned into outs. Wrigley can be a tough park to score in when the wind is blowing in. Not thrilled they lost this series, but not getting swept was key - Cubs now have a road series against the Reds where Steele or Hendricks isn't pitching.

I think he makes alot of sense next season assuming one or both of Dillon/Jones leaves due to contract/cap casualty reasons. Packers should have a good amount of cap room for 2024, and some enticing draft capital to make that type of trade work. Also assuming Taylor is healthy and the same player he was a couple seasons ago...that ankle is somewhat troubling to me until he proves it's not a longterm injury issue.

Brock Purdy played really well for the last player drafted in the 2022 draft last season - but after suffering an elbow injury in his 12th NFL start I think giving up on Lance without him really getting an extended shot to be the man, and instead handing the keys to the franchise to Purdy is pretty rash. Almost seems like a move to get him out of San Fran in case Purdy struggles and they don't have to deal with calls for Lance to become the starter again. Jimmy G mentioned the weirdness related to the QB room in 49erland the past few seasons, and while some of that may be sour grapes from a former player he's also not wrong. Will be interested to see how much guaranteed $ they have to shell out to get Bosa extended...and if NFL karma follows its typical path with non-QBs signing market-setting contracts after extended preseason holdouts I'd fully expect Bosa to suffer a season-ending injury by the end of September. I can see the 49ers making another deep postseason run, or having a trainwreck of a season followed by a bunch of offseason question marks with a roster no longer as deep and inexpensive as it was a couple years ago.

I've mentioned I thought the Cubs would be the Brewers' main competition for the division since mid June when I just didn't have faith in either the Pirates or Reds sustaining the hot streaks that got the to the top of the standings at different points this season, and never really thought the Cards had enough pitching to play winning baseball over an extended stretch. That being said, the pitching issues the Cubs are dealing with make it feel like their recent hot streak isn't going carry deep into September, and the next couple weeks on their calendar isn't exactly a cakewalk. It almost feels like the Brewers treaded water at about a 0.505 winning percentage clip through July until some of their deadline bats hit a little, Woody got back in the rotation, and Adames figured out how not to be a black hole in the middle of the order and now it's their turn to be white hot for a few weeks and get us excited for what they might be capable of in October if all their key players stay healthy.

He is also already 20 IP over his previous season-long career high - definitely think that's related to his recent struggles, although it's not like he's been a pumpkin either. For the Cubs to make a run they're going to need to lean on him hard and hope he doesn't break down, especially with Stroman injured (and prior to that struggling mightily himself).

I went to a few of those wrigley night Brewer-Cub games when I still lived in that area years ago...so fun for that sold out ballpark to be quieter than most funerals after a Brewers win...makes that organ really stand out in the summer night!

Yessir!

My suggestion would be: Kilted Flammenwerfer...look it up, lol! Assuming Megill is of scottish heritage based on his name...Highlander would be solid.

My mistake, i must have misread a column I was pulling #s from. I really don't have anything against Canha in particular, and his production has steadily improved since the first week or two in Milwaukee to make that trade a plus for their MLB roster. My larger point is I'm not convinced Hiura has gotten a fair shake to settle in at the MLB level, particularly in the last couple of seasons, and a big part of that is how the Brewers go about managing their roster (both offseason and in-season) - even with DH being a spot in their batting order since 2020. If the NL didn't have the DH, then all of the defensive liability issues that do come with Hiura would be a very good reason why he's in Nashville - particularly because he lost his 40 man roster spot this spring. And, referencing previous season's MLB stats for Hiura as justification to not give him another extended MLB shot isn't an argument I'm going to pay much attention to considering he's changed his swing (and was in the midst of that change this Spring Training and experimenting with different timing, acknowledging that his Spring Training production suffered from that work in progress). This article is from 4 days before he was DFA'd in late March: https://www.mlb.com/news/keston-hiura-working-to-make-brewers-opening-day-roster After being DFA'd, Hiura continued making tweaks and actually scrapped the toe tap altogether for most of this AAA season, with a much less pronounced leg kick and much smaller bit of forward movement in his hitting stride. Not referencing you in particular, but others tend to cite 2020-2022 or 2021-2022 #s without including anything from Hiura's 2019 season. I just don't think any of those numbers (2019-2022) should be used to justify either keeping him in the minors or calling him up. Hiura's 2023 AAA #s suggest he will find his way back to MLB, whether it's with the Brewers or someone else.

So what about Hiura's 2023 AAA numbers suggests he is deserving of those 0 MLB at bats so far this season?