DuWayne Steurer

The wild thing is, the batter had both feet in the box, and the pitcher wasn't set, and the catcher was still standing up. The batter wasn't "Looking" at the pitcher, so he wasn't set I guess? This is dumb, and MLB needs to figure it out. It does seem like a great opportunity for umps to bully-flex on the players in a new, creative way though, so we do have that.

With the deadline to file closing on Friday, the Brewers and ten arbitration-eligible players agreed to contract terms. The Brewers agreed to terms with several pending arbitration-eligible players on Friday, the deadline for filing for the 2023 season. As of the filing deadline, starting pitcher, Corbin Burnes remained the only eligible player who did not agree to the terms of a new deal. The Brewers and Burnes can still agree on a one-year or multi-year deal before his arbitration hearing. Left-handed reliever Hoby Milner, who was a mainstay for the Brewer bullpen for most of 2022, agreed to a $1.025 million deal for the upcoming season. Backup catcher Victor Caratini earned a raise to $2.8 million. Keston Hiura signed for $2.2 million, so if he's used as a trade chip at this point, there's a little more cost certainty for anyone looking to acquire him. He may still be in the Brewers 2023 plans, but it's hard to see where he fits into the lineup with any regularity. Slugging first baseman, Rowdy Tellez saw his pay bumped to $4.95 million, which may very well make this season his last in Milwaukee. With Tellez being roughly a 1 WAR player, it's hard to picture the cost-conscious Brewers paying much more than this at a premium production position. Eric Lauer gets a pay bump to $5.075 million on the back of his strong 2022 campaign. Depending on how they view the rotation after the Wade Miley acquisition, Lauer's best value to the Brewers might be as a trade chip to fill in other areas of need. Likely closer, Devin Williams agreed to a $3.35 million contract. Despite the rumors of extension talk, nothing has materialized yet, and the Brewers and Willy Adames agreed to a one-year contract for $8.7 million. Of course, this doesn't preclude the Brewers and Adames from continuing to try to hammer out a multi-year deal, but with the mega-deals that have been handed out this off-season, it's become difficult to imagine the Brewers and Adames coming to terms. Infielder Luis Urias secured a $4.7 million contract. Today, Urias looks like he'll be the third baseman on opening day. With a 3.1 bWAR each of the past two seasons and entering his age 26 season, Urias is a solid bet to recreate that number. Newly acquired infielder Abraham Toro agreed to a $1.25 million contract for 2023. Lastly, starting pitcher, Brandon Woodruff agreed with the Brewers to a one-year deal for $10.8 million. With just two more years of team control, it will be interesting to see where things go from here with Woodruff, whether the team tries to extend him, deal with him and maximize their return on him, or ride him until next season. With only Corbin Burnes yet to sign now, the Brewers payroll situation comes more into focus. While it's doubtful that we'll see Burnes sign any multi-year deal, it wouldn't be unrealistic for the team and Burnes to figure out a deal before his hearing date. For payroll purposes, it would be helpful for Matt Arnold to know what kind of flexibility he might have going into the tail end of free agency while looking at any remaining nuggets. What do you think, Brewer fanatics? Arbitration signings aren't usually exciting, but sometimes we see some interesting contract numbers or last-minute multi-year deals. Did the Brewers overpay this year? What's the next move of the off-season? Let us know what you think in the comments. View full article

bucks blew a 21 point lead with under 4 minutes to go. I know they're short handed and all, but that's awful. awful. awful basketball. somehow got into OT and stole the win but what a putrid performance. you almost have to be trying to lose to give up 21 points in 4 minutes, let alone blow a 21 point lead in that amount of time.

The Brewers' bullpen had its share of ups and downs in 2022. With the midseason trade of closer Josh Hader, the entire group saw a change in roles, and the 2023 bullpen will look a bit different. We'll take a look at the Steamer projections and more today. The Brewer bullpen took on a new look at the trade deadline in July of 2022 when All-Star closer and fan favorite Josh Hader was sent to the Padres for a package of players, including Padres closer Taylor Rogers. The Brewers pen struggled at times down the stretch, with Rogers never regaining his previous form and Matt Bush (acquired from the Texas Rangers) giving up six home runs in only 23 innings pitched. The Brewer relief corps still had its share of bright spots in 2022. Devin Williams was a dominant force after a rocky first month, posting an ERA of 1.93 and striking out 96 in just 60 2/3 innings. Hoby Milner became a useful middle-inning reliever and should figure into the Brewers' plans again in 2023. Peter Strzelecki, a 27-year-old rookie, pitched well in limited use, with an ERA under three and punching out just over ten batters per nine innings pitched. Looking ahead, however, the Brewers' pen is going to have a very different look next year. Gone (obviously) is Hader, as are Taylor Rogers. Brad Boxberger, Brent Suter, and Trevor Gott who have signed free-agent contracts elsewhere. As we stand near the end of December, what does this leave the Brewers relief corps looking like? And what do the Steamer projections think of the arms they currently have? Name Team GS G IP W L QS SV HLD H ER HR SO BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR RA9-WAR ADP Devin Williams MIL 0 65 65.0 4 3 0 28 2 49 22 6 84 29 1.20 11.69 4.07 3.12 3.20 0.8 0.9 999.0 Matt Bush MIL 0 63 63.0 3 3 0 2 12 52 25 8 77 23 1.19 10.93 3.22 3.53 3.46 0.6 0.6 999.0 Jake Cousins MIL 0 58 58.0 3 3 0 0 10 49 24 7 67 26 1.29 10.34 4.07 3.72 3.80 0.3 0.4 999.0 Hoby Milner MIL 0 62 62.0 3 3 0 1 12 60 27 8 58 19 1.27 8.48 2.70 3.88 3.96 0.2 0.3 999.0 Joel Payamps MIL 0 54 54.0 3 3 0 0 6 53 25 7 46 18 1.31 7.72 3.03 4.11 4.23 0.2 0.1 999.0 Peter Strzelecki MIL 0 63 63.0 3 3 0 1 14 56 28 8 67 25 1.29 9.55 3.60 4.03 4.07 0.1 0.3 999.0 Jason Alexander MIL 5 43 65.0 3 4 2 0 1 70 32 8 46 21 1.39 6.32 2.90 4.40 4.47 0.1 0.1 999.0 Ethan Small MIL 3 37 52.0 3 3 1 0 1 49 25 7 48 25 1.42 8.35 4.40 4.33 4.61 0.0 0.2 999.0 Janson Junk MIL 2 14 21.0 1 1 1 0 1 21 10 3 18 6 1.29 7.55 2.54 4.39 4.44 0.0 0.1 999.0 Elvis Peguero MIL 0 20 20.0 1 1 0 0 1 19 9 2 18 8 1.34 8.09 3.38 4.01 4.08 0.0 0.0 999.0 As always, it's important to remember that these projections are middle-ground models, Devin Williams, "The Last Airbender," as affectionately named by fans, looks to slot into the closer role, as he did down the stretch in 2022. While understanding how projections work, I'm a bit surprised at the projected K/9 rate, as he's been at 14.5/9 and 14.2/9 each of the previous two seasons. It's unlikely the Brewers will spend whatever budget they have left on a closer, so it's a solid bet that Williams takes this role. Despite the relative volatility of relievers, I think the Brewers have seen enough dominance from Williams to hand him the role and expect results. Hoby Milner pitched well for the first half of 2022 but struggled a bit down the stretch. A high 80's sidearm lefty, Milner had struggled in the majors before last year but found success on the Brewers' staff. Steamer's projections for Milner see a return to form, but it remains to be seen if Milner's season was marred by wearing down or if the league has seen his offerings enough not to be fooled by his sidearm delivery. Steamer's projections for Matt Bush look solid enough, and if he can punch out 10.9/9ip and post an ERA in the mid three's, he could vie for the seventh or eighth-inning role. He'll need to get the home runs under control, as he gave up eleven in under 60 innings between Texas and Milwaukee. Jake Cousins has been very good for the Brewers when he's healthy but comes into 2023 with less than 50 major league innings under his belt. Steamer projects him conservatively for an ERA just under four but also projects 58 innings pitched. If Cousins can stay on the field and pitch well, he may also contend for a late-inning role. Newly acquired Joel Payamps should figure strongly into the mix in a middle-inning role. Payamps has been effective in the previous two seasons as a heavy ground ball pitcher, striking out less than seven per nine but having an over 2-1 ground ball to fly out ratio. Steamer projects Payamps to take a bit of a jump in his strikeout rate but conservatively projects him to have an ERA over four this season. I don't know if Steamer projections are taking the ban on the shift into account, but that definitely will hurt groundball pitchers like Payamps. Peter Strzelecki was brought up to the big club in June and pitched effectively out of the pen for the Crew, pinning down an ERA of 2.83 and striking out ten per nine innings. Strzelecki should be in the club's bullpen blueprint for 2023. Steamer projects him for an ERA just a shade over four while maintaining his strikeout rate. Depending on how he continues to develop, he could slot into a long or middle-inning role. There are other players, of course, and the Brewers will likely end up with fifteen or more players contributing in the pen. These are the guys they have now who are the most prominent contributors. As it stands, one of the more pressing needs for the Brewers for the rest of the off-season is a front-end bullpen piece. Aside from Devin Williams, there appear to be only a few who project to be dominating, a shut-down reliever who can reliably nail down a late-inning role. The Brewers' bullpens recently have had fairly well-defined roles, with Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brad Boxberger handling those duties. Despite these projections being "regression to the mean," nobody here stands out (and I even feel that Williams' projection is overly conservative). But it may be that someone like Cousins or Strzelecki takes a step forward and becomes that next dominant eighth-inning reliever that Williams did in 2020. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the bullpen ready to tackle 2023? How do the Steamer projections look? How do you think the roles will shake out in the coming season? Let us know in the comment section! View full article

1987 isn't *that* long ago, relatively speaking, and I think it really needs to be appreciated that Chuck Crim "averaged" 106 innings out of the pen for a five year period. That will probably never happen again.

The Brewers rotation has been the team's strength the last few seasons and looks to be so again in 2023. We'll break down what the rotation will look like in the coming season. Despite injuries to top-of-the-rotation starters Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, the Brewers starting staff once again bolstered the team amid a season where the bullpen struggled at times, especially after ace closer Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres. The Brewers' top seven starters from 2022 remain with the team as of mid-December. Let's take a look at the projections and break things down. Name Team GS G IP W L QS SV HLD H ER HR SO BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP WAR RA9-WAR ADP Corbin Burnes MIL 32 32 197.0 13 10 21 0 0 161 69 21 239 55 1.10 10.92 2.51 3.15 3.03 4.9 4.8 999.0 Brandon Woodruff MIL 31 31 182.0 12 10 18 0 0 156 70 23 209 51 1.13 10.29 2.50 3.47 3.39 3.7 3.8 999.0 Aaron Ashby MIL 21 37 127.0 8 7 10 0 1 110 48 12 138 53 1.28 9.78 3.76 3.43 3.51 2.1 2.5 999.0 Freddy Peralta MIL 26 26 138.0 9 9 11 0 0 119 61 19 150 52 1.24 9.80 3.41 3.99 4.04 2.0 2.1 999.0 Eric Lauer MIL 28 28 156.0 9 10 12 0 0 148 74 24 150 59 1.32 8.69 3.39 4.30 4.42 1.3 1.8 999.0 Adrian Houser MIL 13 61 117.0 6 7 5 0 1 122 58 14 88 47 1.44 6.76 3.62 4.46 4.49 0.5 0.4 999.0 Jason Alexander MIL 5 43 65.0 3 4 2 0 1 70 32 8 46 21 1.39 6.32 2.90 4.40 4.47 0.1 0.1 999.0 Robert Gasser MIL 2 2 9.0 1 1 1 0 0 9 5 1 8 4 1.38 7.69 3.53 4.52 4.71 0.0 0.1 999.0 Ethan Small MIL 3 37 52.0 3 3 1 0 1 49 25 7 48 25 1.42 8.35 4.40 4.33 4.61 0.0 0.2 999. Corbin Burnes was once again the unquestioned ace of the staff; after winning the National League Cy Young in 2021, he followed up in 2022 by leading the senior circuit with 243 strikeouts while sporting a 2.94 E.R.A, 3.14 FIP, to go along with his 12-8 record, while finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting. The Brewers are getting close to a point where they'll have to decide about his near-term future in Milwaukee, but for 2023, they can ride it out and hold onto Burnes if they're in or close to a playoff spot. General Manager Matt Arnold's hand isn't forced just yet, but trading Burnes could become a reality if the Brewers fade from playoff contention by mid-summer. Steamer projections have solid confidence in a follow-up season from Burnes, with an ERA just a shade over three and projecting almost 240 strikeouts. Brandon Woodruff played a fine second fiddle to Burnes in 2022, going 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA (3.08 FIP) along with 190 strikeouts in just 153 1/3 innings pitched. Woodruff spent a few weeks on the disabled list in June and returned strong, giving up two or fewer earned runs in nine of his next 11 starts. After a five earned run hiccup against the Diamondbacks, he finished out September by going six or more innings and allowing two or fewer runs in six straight starts. A healthy Woodruff looks like a safe bet to be a quality number two again in 2023, with Steamer projections of a 3.43 E.R.A and 209 strikeouts. Like Burnes, however, the Brewers have some tough decisions about Woody's future in Milwaukee, regarding whether they will trade, keep, or even try to extend him. Freddy Peralta pitched well to start the year but spent a fair amount of time on the disabled list. Steamer projections have Peralta notched at 26 starts, 138 innings pitched, and a 3.99 ERA and 2.0 WAR. Peralta has pitched well when healthy and, entering his age 27 season, should be reaching his peak, so those numbers seem on the conservative side, but Peralta has to get and stay healthy. Peralta was incredible in 2021, striking out nearly 200 batters and posting an ERA under three in 27 starts, so there is potential to be a dominant mid-rotation pitcher. Peralta's strikeout rate fell off quite a bit in 2022, which may be concerning, so it'll be something to watch and see where that trends in 2023. Steamer doesn't project much more of a falloff in that category, but it's still concerning to see Peralta regress in that area. Steamer projections look at Aaron Ashby as a pitcher who will take a step forward this season. Ashby struggled at times last year but also suffered from some extreme bad luck. Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% SIERA xFIP- xFIP 2018 MIL R 2.00 22.4% 51.7% 25.9% 6.7% 20.0% 39.7% 20.7% 39.7% 4.89 2018 MIL A 2.13 23.5% 52.0% 24.5% 8.3% 4.2% 37.4% 26.3% 36.4% 2.25 2019 MIL A 1.43 16.8% 49.0% 34.2% 15.7% 7.8% 38.2% 22.8% 39.0% 3.13 2019 MIL A+ 1.52 19.3% 48.6% 32.0% 36.2% 1.7% 46.0% 20.3% 33.7% 4.10 2021 MIL AAA 5.69 21.3% 66.9% 11.8% 6.3% 25.0% 44.8% 20.3% 35.0% 2.26 2021 MIL MLB 2.45 13.8% 61.3% 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 10.2% 100.0% 42.0% 30.9% 27.2% 18.5% 55.6% 25.9% 3.18 72 3.05 2022 MIL MLB 2.17 16.9% 56.9% 26.2% 6.6% 19.7% 12.7% 33.3% 40.5% 34.8% 24.7% 17.9% 54.7% 27.4% 3.48 83 3.29 Total - - - MLB 2.23 16.2% 57.8% 25.9% 5.2% 19.8% 12.1% 42.9% 40.8% 34.0% 25.2% 18.0% 54.9% 27.1% 3.41 80 3.24 Ashby has an above-average strikeout rate for a starter (10.6 per 9 innings), has a solid groundball-to-flyball ratio, and doesn't allow much hard contact. The crazy outlier in his data set is that a whopping 19.7% of flyballs hit off of Ashby went for home runs in 2022. That's almost double the major league average, and probably (hopefully) an anomaly, and something that reverts to the mean in the future. Ashby's ERA this past season was 4.44, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 4.06, and his xFIP (fielding independent pitching normalized for an average home run rate) was 3.29. Ashby's a good pitcher. There are control issues with the walks but there was also a bit of bad luck. Here's to a big bounce back in 2023 and Steamer appears to agree. Eric Lauer started hot for the Brewers in 2022. He was so good through early June that he was referred to as the Brewers' "fourth ace," deservedly so. As all good things must, his hot streak ended, and Lauer returned to earth. He still put together a solid campaign, winning 11 games against seven losses with a 3.69 ERA while striking out a batter per inning. Lauer has been talked about as a trade chip and asset that could bring some much-needed hitting talent to Milwaukee. Still, until one of the younger pitchers like Ashby, Gasser, or Small forces Lauer out of the picture, it's tough to see how a number four guy with Lauer's stuff will be removed from the rotation. Eventually, he may price himself out of the Brewers' plans but for now, having a pitcher at the bottom of the rotation with Lauer's makeup is a luxury most baseball teams do not enjoy. Steamer projects a relatively large jump in ERA for Lauer this coming season, despite putting up a 3.19 and 3.69 ERA each of the previous two seasons. It'll be interesting to see how Lauer performs this coming year after having a stellar start to the season, followed by inconsistent ball down the stretch. Adrian Houser could be the odd man if the Brewers go with a five-man rotation. Houser's ERA jumped by a full one and a half runs to 4.73, while his FIP actually dropped from 4.33 to 4.21. Steamer projects him to be adequately mediocre again in 2023. Houser isn't a bad guy to have around as a long bullpen piece or a starter to run through the rotation four or five times if someone hits the disabled list for a few weeks, but it seems like the league has seen his stuff enough times to know what he has to offer. Houser may still have some trade value for a team looking for a back-end starter, so like Lauer, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the off-season plays out with a few of these players. The rest of the starter depth is about what you'll expect out of number seven starter material. Jason Alexander (no, not THAT Jason Alexander), a rookie at age 29, had a few successful weeks filling in for injured starters, and then when the league had some looks at him, it became clear why he was a rookie at age 29. Still, he was serviceable for a short time and may fill that emergency starter role again in 2023. Neither Ethan Small nor Robert Gasser figures to play any significant role in the rotation in 2023, but Steamer has each of them making a few starts. Small profiles as more of a reliever at this point, but the Brewers have made no indication yet that they aren't going to try to have him stick at starter. If things go wildly out of control on the injury front, we could see Small or Gasser making a start or two or possibly see a September call-up, but aside from that, I wouldn't figure to see either of these prospects see significant time in the rotation. So, what do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Based on what we see today, the Brewers will "run it back" with the same rotation. Is that the right approach? Do the Steamer projections look about right to you? How does the rotation stack up? Let us know in the comment section! View full article

If we get an .850 - 860 OPS and 100 catcher starts from Contreras, plus some DH starts, I'm sure most folks will be over the moon. I wouldn't be disappointed with anything around/over an .800 OPS with 20+ homer power.

I think most projection systems tend to be conservative, some more than others. It's hard for a mathematical model to predict big breakouts (or major dropoffs), as they're based on following trends rather than predicting outliers or anomlies. That being said, one of the things holding Winker's numbers down may be the uncertainty around his return from injury. I also agree that the numbers for Contreras seemed conservative, (and stated as much) but he's young, and has barely had a full season worth of playing time in the majors to draw from, so there's not a lot of data to draw from.

After adding Jesse Winker, and William Contreras (and let's not forget Owen Miller!), we'll look at the Brewers' position players and some of the projected numbers and see where the offense stands. While Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold hasn't made any splashy moves such as inking any of the decade-plus, 300-million dollar signings, he has maneuvered trades to bring Jesse Winker and William Contreras to Milwaukee. Contreras is a young first-time all-star with legitimate 30 home run potential, and Winker is a candidate for a solid bounce-back campaign after an injury-marred 2022 season in Seattle. Arnold also brought in a pair of utility infielders, Abraham Toro and Owen Miller, possibly to compete for the Jace Peterson super-utility role or simply as extra depth. More moves may be made, and Luis Urias may fill the super-sub role in the future. Everyone has their preferred projection system, and each one uses different algorithms or methods to reach the numbers you see on the screen when you make your fantasy draft or browse the various sites. Another important distinction (a big distinction) is the difference between projections and predictions. Most of these systems are not predictions but simply mathematical models based on the previous season's data, age, and other factors. That being said, let's dig in! I'm going to use Steamer today. For one, it's available, and ZiPS currently isn't for the Brewers 2023 yet, and two, Steamer does a much better job of projecting playing time than ZiPS (and some other systems) does. So how does Steamer think the Brewers 2023 positional group stacks up? (per FanGraphs) Name Team G PA AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRC+ BsR Fld Off Def WAR ADP Willy Adames MIL 146 653 580 141 30 1 28 85 81 61 173 3 8 4 .244 .316 .441 .758 .328 111 0.8 -1.5 9.3 5.8 3.9 999.0 Christian Yelich MIL 146 666 563 140 26 3 21 90 68 89 164 5 14 4 .249 .354 .419 .772 .339 119 1.5 -0.9 15.9 -9.5 3.0 999.0 Luis Urías MIL 139 575 501 122 24 1 19 65 65 59 119 9 4 2 .243 .331 .409 .740 .326 110 -0.5 0.6 6.0 3.2 3.0 999.0 Rowdy Tellez MIL 128 553 489 121 24 1 30 73 84 53 113 6 2 1 .247 .326 .486 .812 .346 123 -1.7 0.7 13.2 -10.3 2.3 999.0 William Contreras MIL 112 472 421 104 18 1 22 57 66 43 122 4 2 1 .247 .320 .450 .770 .334 115 -1.3 -1.9 7.1 2.2 2.2 999.0 Garrett Mitchell MIL 109 432 383 93 18 2 11 46 46 39 123 4 13 5 .243 .317 .385 .702 .310 99 0.4 0.4 -0.2 2.2 1.7 999.0 Jesse Winker MIL 115 494 418 104 21 1 17 61 59 64 92 6 1 0 .250 .355 .425 .780 .343 122 -2.4 -2.7 10.0 -12.0 1.5 999.0 Tyrone Taylor MIL 118 464 420 98 20 2 18 53 58 29 111 7 5 2 .232 .292 .419 .711 .309 98 0.2 2.6 -0.7 -2.1 1.4 999.0 Brice Turang MIL 102 384 340 83 16 1 7 43 37 36 77 2 12 3 .244 .317 .366 .683 .303 94 0.7 0.0 -2.1 1.9 1.3 999.0 Victor Caratini MIL 62 242 212 49 9 0 7 26 25 22 55 4 1 0 .232 .315 .372 .687 .303 94 -0.6 -0.1 -2.2 4.6 1.2 999.0 Sal Frelick MIL 32 131 118 33 6 1 3 15 14 10 19 2 3 1 .276 .337 .414 .751 .328 111 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.2 0.7 999.0 Abraham Toro MIL 42 172 153 37 8 1 5 19 20 14 30 2 2 1 .241 .313 .408 .721 .315 103 -0.2 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.6 999.0 Mike Brosseau MIL 44 181 160 35 7 0 6 20 20 16 52 3 2 1 .221 .301 .376 .676 .299 91 -0.3 -1.1 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 999.0 Joey Wiemer MIL 28 112 100 23 5 0 4 13 13 9 30 1 3 1 .234 .301 .414 .715 .311 99 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.2 0.3 999.0 Keston Hiura MIL 66 272 240 52 10 1 12 31 33 23 99 6 4 2 .216 .298 .409 .707 .310 99 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -6.5 0.2 999.0 Payton Henry MIL 6 24 21 4 1 0 1 2 2 2 7 0 0 0 .207 .278 .331 .609 .271 72 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.5 0.1 999.0 Owen Miller MIL 13 54 49 12 3 0 1 5 5 4 12 1 0 0 .241 .299 .364 .663 .292 87 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 999.0 Blake Perkins MIL 13 53 46 10 2 0 2 6 5 6 14 1 1 0 .211 .301 .363 .664 .295 88 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 999.0 Outfield The Brewers shipped out slugging right fielder Hunter Renfroe and brought in Jesse Winker. Winker profiles almost exclusively as a DH due to his defense, but the Brewers ideally would use Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura (if he remains with the club) in that role often as well. Right now, the outfield lines up with the bulk of playing time going to Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, and Tyrone Taylor. Steamer projects Mitchell for a 1.7 WAR and a .702 OPS, but it wouldn't be outrageous for a prospect to struggle his second time around the league. Mitchell hit well in his late-season call-up in 2022, but that's a sample of less than 100 plate appearances and his strikeout rate was over 40% in those limited chances. While Tyrone Taylor got the lion's share of playing time in center field after Lorenzo Cain was released last year, he struggled with on-base percentage and is well past prospect status entering his age 29 season. With Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Joey Wiemer banging on the door, the Brewers could move Taylor to a reserve role sooner rather than later if he struggles to get on base. Christian Yelich projects for a 3.0 WAR and 21 home runs in Steamer's system, which would make most Brewer fans ecstatic. Tempering our enthusiasm, if Yelich can continue to be an on-base threat at the top of the order and set the table, he'll be providing worth as a table setter and leadoff man. Frelick's playing time depends on several factors. Notably, whether or not the Brewers acquire any other outfield pieces, whether or not Taylor struggles, and how well Frelick adjusts to big-league pitching. Infield There are some question marks here after dealing away Kolten Wong and Jace Peterson signing elsewhere. Rowdy Tellez returns at first base with his power bat. Despite knocking 35 home runs, Tellez hit just .219 last year with a .767 OPS. Tellez hopes to improve on that mainly by seeing a bounce back in his .215 BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Willy Adames will man shortstop again in 2023 after posting a 4.7 WAR in 2022. Adames' .298 on-base percentage last year was the lowest of his career by a wide margin, so it's arguable if he maintains his power (31 home runs), there's room to improve on the offensive side. The Brewers may look to hand second base to rookie Brice Turang, who broke through at Nashville in 2022 and had a .286 average and .772 OPS. Early projections from Steamer have a limited amount of confidence in his offense but the Brewers will have to be willing to let Turang grow into his game and let his defense provide his value until his bat can catch up. As of now, it looks like Luis Urias is the third baseman. Steamer projects a 3.0 WAR from Urias, which aligns with where he's been the last few years. A bit of power, a decent on base percentage, and decent defense. While the Brewers may end up going another route for third base, a 3.0 WAR projection is a safe bet. The infield backups are Abraham Toro, Owen Miller, and Mike Brosseau. Brosseau had a solid season in partial playing time for Milwaukee last year, but the Brewers will almost certainly look at the whole group and decide what pieces make the most sense and fit. Miller played almost full-time in Cleveland last year, primarily due to injuries to other players, and wasn't particularly spectacular, but he could provide a decent backup around the diamond. Designated Hitter Right now, there are plenty of DH candidates, but I'll focus on Jesse Winker and Keston Hiura. I suspect there's at least some chance that Hiura will be dealt with before spring training, so this is subject to change. After a brutal campaign in 2021, Hiura bounced back quite a bit this past year and slugged fourteen home runs with a .765 OPS in part-time play. Despite that, he never seemed to get on the good side of manager Craig Counsell and earned anything more than sporadic playing time. Often his playing time came against left-handed pitching, which he's notoriously (and oddly) terrible against. Be that as it may, with reverse splits, he doesn't make a good platoon DH partner for Winker, who hits left-handed and has more typical platoon splits. It'll be interesting to see how and when Hiura is used if he's still with the team come April. Jesse Winker was acquired in the Kolten Wong trade, and the Brewers are betting heavily on Winker having a big bounce-back season. He was terrible in Seattle in 2022. No getting around it. But in 2020 and 2021, he put up ..932 and .949 OPS numbers, respectively. His defensive prowess is best left unsaid, and if he only finds the field a handful of times, it's for the best. The DH spot will likely end up as Christian Yelich's long-term home, but for one season (Winker is a free agent after this year), Yelich can handle left field while WInker DHs. I'd be remiss if I didn't point out Winker's platoon splits. He has a career of .661 OPS vs. left-handers. The Brewers will need to find a platoon partner for him and hide that weakness. Catcher The big get of the offseason so far, and what a get it was. The Brewers acquired all-star catcher William Contreras in a three-team trade for minor league outfielder Esteury Ruiz. Contreras immediately adds some much-needed right-handed pop to the lineup, and should hit somewhere in the middle of the order. Contreras has his defensive drawbacks, but the Brewers seem more than willing to live with it and hope he improves. Steamer puts Contreras at 2.2 WAR with 22 home runs. I hope that's slightly conservative. The backup catcher is currently Victor Caratini. Caratini was doing a solid job with the backup duties to Omar Narvaez last year, providing some pop and decent defense. During the second half of the season, when he was forced to take on more regular catching duties his offensive numbers declined in August and September. Despite that, Caratini is a solid option for a backup with good defense and some decent power. That's where we stand in mid-December. The Brewers may make more moves, and there are plenty of free agents below the top-tier names who remain unsigned. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? What will the lineup look like? What do you think of the first Projections that have come out? Let us know in the comments! View full article

I edited this back to William, and I was pretty sure I had double double double checked myself when I wrote the article, but I was like 'Huh', must have just mentally typed Willson instead. "No biggie". Good to know I'm not the only one!

Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold surprised everyone on Monday afternoon when he pulled the trigger on a trade that brought all-star catcher William Contreras to Milwaukee to replace outgoing Omar Narvaez. We'll look at the trade and the Brewers' roster in the wake of this enormous acquisition. Before I say anything about the numbers, data, stats, or anything else, it has to be said that this deal was an absolute steal from the Brewers' standpoint. Even if you question the methodology or accuracy of sites like Baseball Trade Values, the Brewers got a fantastic deal, value-wise, compared to what they gave up. If you have yet to see it anywhere else... Baseball Trade Values won't even allow that trade to go through. It's tilted at 33.2 million dollars in surplus value in favor of the Brewers. Again, I understand that sites like these are just a starting point, and scouts and general managers have many advanced ways to evaluate trades, but at first blush, this one looks like highway robbery. Trades involving prospects are always best evaluated after they hit the big leagues and their impact on the big clubs is better felt. Still, everyone feels confident from the Brewer standpoint that giving up Esteury Ruiz for a young, slugging catcher and two relievers is a good deal right now. So what did the Brewers get, and what did they give up? Ruiz came over in the Josh Hader trade this past summer, and while he might have been looked at as the centerpiece of that particular trade, many looked at the return the Brewers got for the premier closer in the game to be light. Ruiz put up excellent numbers at Nashville after being acquired, and while he doesn't have the kind of bat that scouts expect to produce much power at the big league level, he has elite speed, stealing 85 bags over three levels in the minors last year. Another thing holding Ruiz back (at least in Milwaukee) will be the trio of talented outfielders already knocking on the door in Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Joey Wiemer, not to mention the fast-rising and ultra-talented Jackson Chourio. Flipping a piece of the Hader trade then for a young, cost-controlled all-star catcher had to be a no-brainer for Matt Arnold and the Brewers front office. William Contreras emerged from the long shadow of his three-time all-star brother Willson last year to put together a big campaign for the Braves. With a .278/.354/.506 slash line and a healthy 138 ops+, Contreras was a first-time all-star at age 24. Contreras mauled left-handed pitching last year with a 1.036 OPS, which is an area the Brewers struggled all season long, so having his power bat from the right side of the plate in the middle of the order will be an immediate boost for the offense. He was still capable against right-handed pitching with a .784 OPS. I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ vs RHP 139 416 374 49 91 12 1 21 51 1 0 38 120 .243 .315 .449 .764 168 5 2 0 2 2 2 .298 89 vs LHP 76 155 133 21 41 7 1 7 18 1 0 20 42 .308 .400 .534 .934 71 3 1 0 1 0 1 .400 132 vs RHP as RHB 139 416 374 91 12 1 21 51 0 0 38 120 .243 .315 .449 .764 168 5 2 0 2 2 2 .298 89 vs LHP as RHB 76 155 133 41 7 1 7 18 0 0 20 42 .308 .400 .534 .934 71 3 1 0 1 0 1 .400 132 vs RH Starter 106 95 392 350 44 83 9 1 19 39 0 0 38 117 .237 .314 .431 .745 151 5 2 0 2 2 2 .296 84 vs LH Starter 47 43 179 157 26 49 10 1 9 30 2 0 20 45 .312 .391 .561 .952 88 3 1 0 1 0 1 .385 135 Baseball-Reference rates Contreras' defense a bit higher than Fangraphs. At BR, he's listed at 0.0 dWAR for the last two years at BR. Fangraphs is a little more negative on his defense. Season Team Level Batting Base Running Fielding Positional Offense Defense League Replacement RAR WAR Dollars Salary 2020 ATL MLB 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 $0.7 2021 ATL MLB -3.2 -0.8 -5.9 3.6 -4.1 -2.3 0.4 5.8 -0.2 0.0 -$0.2 2022 ATL MLB 16.6 -2.6 -4.1 0.7 14.0 -3.4 1.4 11.2 23.3 2.4 $19.5 Total - - - MLB 13.9 -3.6 -10.0 4.5 10.4 -5.5 1.8 17.3 23.9 2.5 $20.1 With Victor Caratini most likely returning this year, it will be interesting to see how the catching duties are split and if Contreras spends any appreciable time at DH again, as he did in Atlanta in 2022. Either way, his defensive numbers aren't so bad as to viably negate his offensive value. The Brewers control Contreras through the 2027 season, so they're looking at five years of control through Contreras' age 29 season. Having those years of control for a team like the Brewers that will have to flip assets for prospects routinely is extremely valuable, especially when they're still in a competitive window with Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta. Of the two relievers the Brewers acquired in the trade, Joel Payamps has seen major league experience, pitching over 50 innings each of the past two seasons. He's produced an earned run average of 3.35 over 113 major league innings, with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.19. Payamps is not a big strikeout pitcher, punching out 6.7 batters per nine innings over his career, and that number has been consistent. Payamps throws a mid 90's four-seamer, mixed with a heavy sinker, slider, and occasional changeup that he relies on to induce an almost two-to-one groundball to flyout ratio. (per FanGraphs) Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% SIERA xFIP- xFIP 2019 ARI MLB 0.20 40.0% 10.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.4% 45.5% 18.2% 18.2% 27.3% 54.5% 6.63 146 6.45 2020 ARI MLB 0.50 62.5% 12.5% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 37.5% 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 75.0% 7.49 138 6.14 2021 2 Tms MLB 1.08 14.6% 44.4% 41.1% 16.1% 9.7% 14.9% 0.0% 43.4% 32.9% 23.7% 21.1% 52.0% 27.0% 4.33 110 4.73 2022 2 Tms MLB 1.73 16.7% 52.8% 30.6% 21.8% 12.7% 11.6% 50.0% 47.3% 33.0% 19.8% 20.9% 52.7% 26.4% 3.86 103 4.07 Total - - - MLB 1.32 17.5% 47.0% 35.5% 17.7% 10.5% 12.8% 25.0% 45.0% 33.4% 21.5% 20.4% 51.0% 28.6% 4.27 109 4.50 While Payamps has relied on weak contact and groundballs to produce results, it would still be nice to see him push that K/9 rate more up around eight or nine punchouts per nine innings. Even so, if he can produce a low 3's ERA like he has the past two seasons, he can be a solid addition to the middle of the Brewers bullpen. The last piece acquired by the Brewers in the trade, Justin Yeager, came from the Braves. Yeager is a 24-year-old reliever who reached AA Mississippi in the Braves system this season. The right-hander works in the high 90's with his four-seamer but can touch 100, and he struck out 81 batters in 52.1 innings this past season. On the flip side, he also walked 32 batters and 66 batters in just 117.2 innings worked in affiliated ball. While Yeager certainly has the physical tools to be successful, gaining control of his repertoire will decide how far up the prospect ladder Yeager can climb. This trade (as many do) came out of left field for Brewers fans and certainly felt like a nice pre-holiday treat. It certainly shakes up the lineup and gives the team a little more (or a lot more) punch against left-handed pitching, and adds a reliable, if unspectacular, arm to the middle of the bullpen. At the same time, the Brewers were dealing from a position of depth and strength to strengthen their major league roster. Contreras should slot into the middle of the order and give the Brewers some much-needed right-hand power after the Hunter Renfroe trade. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is Matt Arnold done making trades, or is something more on the horizon? What other moves might he have to improve the team before opening day? Let us know what you think in the comments! View full article

This is a fair point. I focused exclusively on left handed hitters because league wide, left handed batters were shifted on 55% of the time last year, while right handed batters were shifted on only 19% of the time. I think that's a pretty drastic difference. Interesting that Adames was shifted that much as a RH batter.

Oh, for sure I don't think that the shift is to blame. I think it's a part of the overall bigger picture though. That being said, I'll throw my opinion in and say I'm actually not in favor of the ban of the shift, even if it is part of the downward trend of lower offense and ugly baseball. It is what it is though, and going forward whether teams and players are for or against it, they have to play within the boundaries that have been set (except maybe the Astros, somewhow hahaha) and the way I see it, if you're going to be a fan of baseball, you have to accept that the game changes, sometimes for the better, and sometimes for the worse. Things can't go our way 100% of the time, all the time.

With league-wide rule changes in place for defensive alignments in 2023, the left-hand-heavy Brewers offense could benefit more than others. We'll break down the numbers and see what, if any, advantage the Crew might gain from the new ruleset in the coming season. However you feel about the new rules regarding infield defensive alignment, they're coming and probably here to stay. With strikeout totals soaring, defenses shifting on nearly every batter, and batters favoring launch angle and exit velocity over putting the ball in play, league-wide offense plummeted to an OPS of just .706. The league OPS was .700 in 2014 and .700 back in 1992 Over the past thirty years, the .706 OPS posted this past year is the third lowest league OPS. Baseball offense is down, and the powers that be don't seem to like it. On top of that, with strikeouts up and fewer balls in play turning into hits due to the shift, the phrase that more than one person has bandied about in the game (and without) is that the game "isn't aesthetically pleasing." With yearly tweaks being done at multiple levels in the minor leagues, the big one coming in 2023 is the *ban on defensive shifts. The asterisk shows up as we will see a partial ban on defensive positioning (at least not yet). The rules state that the defense must have four players with their feet on the infield dirt and two players on either side of second base when a pitch is thrown. With that in mind, defenses will still have a fair amount of freedom to shift a second baseman deep into the hole, have a shortstop right on top of second base, have the third baseman play in the shortstop position so on. We won't see a third baseman playing in short right field and a second baseman playing fifteen feet behind the first baseman, cutting off sharp line drives into the right field corner. So how does this affect or benefit the Brewers? Rule changes regarding defensive positioning should affect pull-hitting lefties nearly equally across the league. In 2023 the Brewers look to feature (again) a lefty-heavy lineup with mainstays Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez, newcomer Jesse Winker, and early indications are that Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick could both receive ample playing time in their rookie campaigns. Of the three lefties returning who'll see major playing time, Tellez is the most extreme pull hitter. (via FanGraphs) Partial SeasonsPostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2018 TOR MLB 1.06 26.0% 38.0% 36.0% 11.1% 22.2% 21.1% 0.0% 42.0% 30.0% 28.0% 18.0% 42.0% 40.0% 2019 TOR MLB 1.02 23.7% 38.5% 37.7% 10.3% 21.6% 1.0% 0.0% 42.0% 39.3% 18.7% 15.6% 42.8% 41.6% 2020 TOR MLB 1.38 20.0% 46.3% 33.7% 6.3% 25.0% 6.8% 0.0% 36.8% 37.9% 25.3% 20.0% 42.1% 37.9% 2021 2 Tms MLB 1.08 20.6% 41.2% 38.2% 12.4% 12.4% 11.5% 0.0% 36.5% 36.9% 26.6% 15.9% 48.5% 35.6% 2022 MIL MLB 0.86 15.6% 38.9% 45.5% 12.3% 18.7% 4.4% 0.0% 41.4% 39.7% 19.0% 17.5% 42.1% 40.4% Total - - - MLB 0.99 19.6% 40.0% 40.4% 11.3% 18.7% 6.2% 0.0% 40.1% 38.3% 21.6% 16.9% 43.7% 39.4% Teams shifted 78.4% of the time against Tellez, resulting in a .020 drop in his wOBA, per Statcast. Over the past two seasons, Tellez's shift data has been fairly consistent with teams shifting on him often, and Tellez hitting well in his opportunities against standard alignment. Another factor in Tellez's performance to be considered has to be the .215 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Well below his career norm, and any season he's had prior, the Brewers have to expect that number to rebound to some degree. Tellez doesn't strike out at the pace of most 30 - 35 home run sluggers, but having a bit higher BABIP would boost that slugging and OPS. Whether teams are shifting or not, that number seems unsustainable for another full season for Tellez. Despite the seeming perception of Christian Yelich grounding out repeatedly to second base, his spray chart, hit chart, and all the data shows that he distributes the ball evenly to all fields. (via FanGraphs) PostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2013 MIA MLB 4.58 23.0% 63.2% 13.8% 0.0% 16.7% 8.2% 0.0% 32.0% 36.0% 32.0% 17.1% 48.6% 34.3% 2014 MIA MLB 3.42 21.2% 61.0% 17.8% 1.3% 11.5% 6.0% 50.0% 27.8% 40.9% 31.3% 15.8% 50.0% 34.2% 2015 MIA MLB 4.16 22.5% 62.5% 15.0% 0.0% 12.5% 5.2% 0.0% 31.7% 40.5% 27.7% 17.1% 49.9% 33.1% 2016 MIA MLB 2.82 23.4% 56.5% 20.0% 5.6% 23.6% 6.0% 100.0% 36.0% 35.1% 29.0% 17.5% 44.5% 38.0% 2017 MIA MLB 2.20 19.4% 55.4% 25.2% 2.5% 15.3% 4.2% 50.0% 33.3% 37.4% 29.3% 15.9% 48.8% 35.2% 2018 MIL MLB 2.20 24.7% 51.8% 23.5% 4.9% 35.0% 6.6% 33.3% 34.9% 38.1% 27.0% 14.5% 37.9% 47.6% 2019 MIL MLB 1.20 20.9% 43.2% 35.9% 7.5% 32.8% 6.2% 0.0% 39.3% 37.4% 23.3% 14.4% 34.8% 50.8% 2020 MIL MLB 1.70 19.4% 50.8% 29.8% 0.0% 32.4% 1.6% 0.0% 38.7% 33.1% 28.2% 8.1% 50.8% 41.1% 2021 MIL MLB 2.29 22.0% 54.4% 23.7% 2.9% 13.2% 7.7% 100.0% 35.3% 35.3% 29.4% 15.9% 49.1% 34.9% 2022 MIL MLB 2.55 18.4% 58.6% 23.0% 5.3% 14.7% 6.2% 33.3% 34.4% 35.3% 30.3% 13.9% 52.2% 33.9% Total - - - MLB 2.46 21.5% 55.8% 22.7% 3.9% 21.7% 5.9% 44.4% 34.0% 37.3% 28.7% 15.4% 46.2% 38.4% Accordingly, teams don't shift on Yelich all that much, at 30.6%, and interestingly when they do, his wOBA last season was .368 in 206 plate appearances compared to the .311 wOBA posted in his non-shifted plate appearances. During previous campaigns from 2018 to 2021, teams were shifting on Yelich more in the 50-55% range. It could be that Yelich becoming more of a singles and doubles hitter, and definitely a guy who uses all fields, is forcing teams to defend the whole field. Jesse Winker is an interesting case, as he had an extreme down year in 2022, seemingly due to playing injured for much of the season. Winker's shift data is strange in that in all but one season in his career, he has posted a higher wOBA while being shifted than not shifted, yet teams continue to shift against him, and his spray charts and hit data suggest he is a heavy pull hitter. (via FanGraphs) PostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2017 CIN MLB 1.70 16.5% 52.6% 30.9% 3.3% 23.3% 2.0% 0.0% 40.8% 37.8% 21.4% 12.2% 52.0% 35.7% 2018 CIN MLB 1.24 24.0% 42.1% 33.9% 8.9% 8.9% 5.1% 50.0% 37.1% 37.1% 25.7% 11.8% 44.3% 43.9% 2019 CIN MLB 1.96 26.4% 48.7% 24.9% 4.3% 23.2% 1.5% 0.0% 39.9% 36.3% 23.7% 15.5% 43.2% 41.4% 2020 CIN MLB 1.67 23.1% 48.1% 28.8% 6.7% 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 31.7% 22.1% 10.6% 40.4% 49.0% 2021 CIN MLB 1.26 24.7% 42.0% 33.3% 9.5% 20.7% 4.8% 0.0% 39.4% 35.6% 25.0% 15.8% 47.7% 36.5% 2022 SEA MLB 0.96 20.6% 38.9% 40.6% 17.4% 9.7% 4.3% 0.0% 38.5% 35.7% 25.8% 20.5% 50.8% 28.7% Total - - - MLB 1.32 23.2% 43.7% 33.1% 10.5% 17.1% 3.4% 28.6% 39.5% 35.9% 24.6% 15.6% 46.8% 37.6% There's a lot to parse here. Winker's hard hit percentage fell off a cliff last year, after trending down in 2021. His flyball percentage was well up, but it didn't really translate into home runs in Seattle, which is somewhat to be expected. First and foremost, for Winker's 2023 to be successful, he needs to be healthy. Digging through the data, it's hard to tell how much of Winker's drop off was due to injury, playing in Seattle, or other factors. With the limited ability to shift next year however, a healthy Winker should be able to benefit. The rest of the Brewers roster still has a lot of left handed sticks as of early December. Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick should see plenty of time in the outfield. Victor Caratini and newly acquired utility infielder Abraham Toro each hit from both sides of the plate. It's possible on any given night the Brewers could send as many as six batters to the dish from the left side of the plate. The Brewers struggled against left handed pitching last year, and with their current makeup, it's possible that trend could continue. As the off season continues, it will be interesting to see how General Manager Matt Arnold approaches the lineup makeup of the team as it currently stands. With youngsters Frelick and Mitchell, who have had varying success against left handed pitching in their minor league careers and who are both more suited to on base roles rather than slugging and run producing roles, the Brewers offense could see a boost against left-handed pitching with these types of players more able to utilize the diamond with the shift being banned. Sal Frelick's splits in 2022 - (via StatCast) Platoon Splits Team Lg Type PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS HBP AVG OBP SLG OPS Nashville Sounds Triple-A vs Left 77 66 26 1 2 1 11 6 7 3 .394 .467 .515 .982 Biloxi Shuckers Double-A vs Left 65 55 15 1 1 2 7 6 10 3 .273 .369 .436 .805 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers High-A vs Left 24 19 4 1 0 0 1 5 4 0 .211 .375 .263 .638 Nashville Sounds Triple-A vs Right 140 123 43 10 0 3 14 13 9 2 .350 .417 .504 .921 Biloxi Shuckers Double-A vs Right 188 169 56 11 2 3 18 14 23 1 .331 .384 .473 .857 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers High-A vs Right 68 60 19 4 1 2 8 8 10 0 .317 .397 .517 .914 After an initial struggle at High A, Frelick hit well against lefties at both stops the rest of the season. Whether that will translate into success against the tough lefties he'll face at the major league level remains to be seen, but certainly those numbers are encouraging. Ultimately, regardless of where the fielders stand, the Brewer offense should be better than it was in 2022, and it absolutely has to produce better results than it did against left-handed pitching. However, with a bevy of pull-heavy lefties on the roster, a ban on the shift could make life easier for a few of the guys who will most likely be installed in the middle of the order in Tellez and Winker. Despite the fact that the shift ban should affect everyone equally, a team heavy on left handed batters like the Brewers could benefit more than some if the lineup stays as currently constructed. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the ban on the shift going to play any kind of role for the Brewers current lefty-heavy offense? Will the Brewers continue to struggle against left handed pitching regardless? Does Matt Arnold have a few more moves up his sleeves that will make a bigger difference than where the second baseman stands? Let us know what you think in the comments! 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Mitchell has 24 homeruns total between college, minors, and his brief major league stint. It might be a tad early to be projecting him as a possible 30 homerun guy. Before we start tagging all these guys as possible 4-5 WAR players we might want to see them play in the majors. Projecting Chourio to put up MVP level production is pretty heavy before he's even reached double AA.

I agree with this, in general. I do think the Brewers need to do better than "hey, they were "xth" in offense!" while having great pitching, and struggling to score runs at times. Bending spoons to say "they were 3rd in the NL in runs from (insert date) to (insert date)" to make the argument that the offense isn't *that bad* underlies the fact that they just weren't great. Rowdy's fun! He hits a lot of dingers. But he's also below average (0.9 WAR), no matter how many people want to say he made some great scoops at first base, he's not a good defender. A .760-.770 ops out of the position that's supposed to supply the biggest pop isn't cutting it. So looking there is the logical choice. Like you said, Yelich isn't going anywhere. Wong's option has been picked up. Adames is a borderline all-star caliber SS. We've got a bevy of ready or near-ready outfield stud prospects who need to play, so it's 3B or 1B, and Bell and Abreu are both available, and a tier below the "break the bank" players that are going to be out there. What will Abreu command? I don't know. 2/30? 2/36? 3/45? There's obviously a line somewhere, but I hope we don't go into next season with an entire roster of .750 OPS guys again so we can say "from May 17th to August 2nd the Brewers were 4th in the NL in runs!"

I agree with this, in general. I do think the Brewers need to do better than "hey, they were "xth" in offense!" while having great pitching, and struggling to score runs at times. Bending spoons to say "they were 3rd in the NL in runs from (insert date) to (insert date)" to make the argument that the offense isn't *that bad* underlies the fact that they just weren't great. Rowdy's fun! He hits a lot of dingers. But he's also below average (0.9 WAR), no matter how many people want to say he made some great scoops at first base, he's not a good defender. A .760-.770 ops out of the position that's supposed to supply the biggest pop isn't cutting it. So looking there is the logical choice. Like you said, Yelich isn't going anywhere. Wong's option has been picked up. Adames is a borderline all-star caliber SS. We've got a bevy of ready or near-ready outfield stud prospects who need to play, so it's 3B or 1B, and Bell and Abreu are both available, and a tier below the "break the bank" players that are going to be out there. What will Abreu command? I don't know. 2/30? 2/36? 3/45? There's obviously a line somewhere, but I hope we don't go into next season with an entire roster of .750 OPS guys again so we can say "from May 17th to August 2nd the Brewers were 4th in the NL in runs!"

As the Brewers head into their first off-season under new President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold, we'll be taking a look at some of the ways the team may look to improve on the 86-76 record that saw them fall just short of a playoff spot in 2022. In this article, we'll look at two of the possible first base targets Arnold may look at (and one that was rumored to be a trade target at the deadline last year in Josh Bell) who could add some punch to the Brewers lineup. By all accounts, the Brewers regular first baseman and fan favorite, Rowdy Tellez had a fine 2022 season. He bashed 35 home runs, 23 doubles, and knocked in 89 run. While he only hit .219 for the year, he drew a respectable 62 walks and for a power-hitting slugger, struck out at a reasonable rate, with just 121 whiffs in 599 plate appearances. With a .767 OPS and a 115 OPS+, first base, at first blush, wasn't the main problem for the Brewers offense. Taking a deeper dive into Tellez's numbers though, he posted a -1.3 brDWar, and Fangraphs didn't like his defense much either, slotting him at -12.9 runs with the glove. His BABiP was surprisingly low, at .215, which was well below his career norms, and well below any number in his career prior, so that number should be expected to rebound in the coming season. But with a player like Rowdy Tellez, should Matt Arnold stand pat or look to improve? Taking a look at free agency, the two players who are available and may fit the Brewers budget are Josh Bell and former American League MVP, Jose Abreu. It's worth noting that acquiring either of these players doesn't preclude the Brewers from bringing back Tellez, with the addition of the DH to the National League. The Brewers have the luxury now (finally) of carrying a bat-only player on the roster. Taking a look at Jose Abreu, the obvious drawback is his age. Abreu will be 36 on Opening Day 2023. Abreu hit .304 in 2022, though his power took a dip, down from 30 home runs in 2021 to just 15 in 2022. Whether that's age-related, or just an odd fluctuation, it's hard to say. His launch angle at 8.0 degrees was the lowest of his career, but not by a large amount. His barrel percentage, hard hit, and exit velocity are still all in line or close to career averages. Despite his age, he's not showing much, if any, age-related decline. Season Team Level Events EV maxEV LA Barrels Barrel% HardHit HardHit% AVG xBA SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA 2015 CHW MLB 474 91.0 114.9 9.7 42 8.9% 197 41.6% .290 .270 .502 .456 .361 .338 2016 CHW MLB 508 89.7 113.4 10.3 36 7.1% 199 39.2% .293 .280 .468 .467 .349 .348 2017 CHW MLB 506 90.6 114.9 11.1 43 8.5% 231 45.7% .304 .290 .552 .520 .377 .364 2018 CHW MLB 396 91.3 115.5 12.2 35 8.8% 179 45.2% .265 .277 .473 .493 .337 .356 2019 CHW MLB 492 92.1 117.9 10.9 59 12.0% 237 48.2% .284 .279 .503 .517 .344 .358 2020 CHW MLB 182 92.9 114.0 10.9 26 14.3% 97 53.3% .317 .299 .617 .587 .411 .399 2021 CHW MLB 433 92.0 115.6 10.4 44 10.2% 212 49.0% .261 .252 .481 .457 .354 .349 2022 CHW MLB 495 92.2 113.0 8.0 47 9.5% 256 51.7% .304 .296 .446 .486 .361 .373 Total - - - MLB 3486 91.3 117.9 10.4 332 9.5% 1608 46.1% .292 .506 .364 He did sock forty doubles and put up a more-than-solid .304/.378/.446 (.824) slash line, with a 133 OPS+. Any team investing two or three years in him is probably expecting to get a little more pop out of their first base position, of course, but there's a bit of a gamble that his power dip was a one-year anomaly. The .446 slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and while at his age expecting Abreu to put up the numbers he did in his late 20's is unrealistic, the Brewers (or any team to sign him) would probably be banking on getting 20+ home run power for a few more seasons. Abreu's defense wasn't fantastic, and never really has been. He was -0.9 brDwar and was rated at -11.9 runs defensively at Fangraphs. Despite his poor defense, Abreu put up a 4.2 bWAR and a 3.9 WAR, per Fangraphs. Again, given age-related decline, we should expect that number to dip a little bit over the next few years, but that's still a sizeable improvement over the 0.9 WAR Tellez supplied this past season. The other target the Brewers may look at for first base, Josh Bell, was previously discussed at the trade deadline as a possible upgrade for the position. While the Brewers didn't acquire him, the Crew may take another look at Bell now in free agency. Bell's season was definitely a tale of two halves. In Washington, he hit a very nice .301 with 14 home runs with an .877 OPS. With Washington well out of the playoff race early, Bell's name was attached to just about every contender looking for some extra offense, including the Brewers. In the end, Bell went to the Padres, where he struggled immensely for the rest of the season, hitting a paltry .192 with just three home runs over 210 plate appearances. While it's hard to ignore the struggles he had down the stretch, Bell is just entering his age-30 season, and has a solid track record of success at the plate over seven major-league seasons. Like Abreu, Bell's power numbers were down last season, with 17 home runs between Washington and San Diego. Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2016 PIT MLB 1.75 21.4% 50.0% 28.6% 9.4% 9.4% 7.1% 0.0% 22.3% 34.8% 42.9% 22.3% 44.6% 33.0% 2017 PIT MLB 1.64 17.7% 51.1% 31.2% 11.8% 19.1% 6.3% 0.0% 41.5% 29.6% 28.9% 20.6% 46.8% 32.6% 2018 PIT MLB 1.49 19.0% 48.5% 32.5% 9.2% 9.2% 8.2% 0.0% 33.8% 37.6% 28.6% 19.2% 47.0% 33.8% 2019 PIT MLB 1.18 18.8% 44.0% 37.3% 6.5% 23.9% 3.3% 0.0% 42.5% 33.2% 24.3% 13.2% 41.3% 45.4% 2020 PIT MLB 2.17 18.6% 55.7% 25.7% 8.3% 22.2% 3.8% 0.0% 38.6% 37.1% 24.3% 10.7% 47.9% 41.4% 2021 WSN MLB 2.02 20.0% 53.5% 26.5% 5.7% 25.5% 3.3% 0.0% 39.0% 35.8% 25.3% 12.0% 50.5% 37.5% 2022 2 Tms MLB 1.63 18.6% 50.4% 30.9% 9.9% 12.1% 3.5% 0.0% 38.4% 36.0% 25.7% 17.1% 53.3% 29.6% Total - - - MLB 1.60 18.9% 49.9% 31.2% 8.7% 17.7% 4.9% 0.0% 38.3% 34.5% 27.2% 16.4% 47.7% 35.9% Bell's HR/FB ratio dropped by more than half, playing in Washington and San Diego. While Pittsburgh isn't exactly known as a hitting haven, Bell's numbers took a big hit playing in two pitcher-friendly environments in 2022. Should the Brewers pursue Bell, Miller Park with its short right-field porch should prove to be a friendlier hitting environment for the big switch-hitter. Despite his struggles in San Diego, Bell secured a respectable 3.0 bWAR for the season, with a 124 OPS+. Like Tellez and Abreu, Bell's strength is with the stick, and not with the glove. Between both stops, Bell scored a -1.0 brDWar for the season and has historically been subpar at best in the field. The question around Bell and Abreu, of course, will be contract length and value. Bell is younger and will command a longer commitment, and possibly more dollars per year. At 30, his future may be slightly more projectible, and he hits from both sides of the plate. Abreu put up slightly better numbers for the season, and will almost certainly require fewer years of commitment, given his age. Either one may be a solid fit and allow the Brewers to tandem with Tellez at first base and designated hitter for the next couple of years. What do you think Brewer fanatics? Is either of these slugging first basemen a good fit for the Brewers? Which one would you target? Or is there someone else out there that is a better fit? Let us know in the comments! View full article