Harold Hutchison
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Everything posted by Harold Hutchison
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Buying an ace on the FA market
Harold Hutchison replied to adambr2's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility. To this question - if the Brewers have the chance to sign an ace in free agency - I say, "No, it won't happen." It's just too expensive. Boston paid David Price $30M a year. Greinke got nearly $35M a year. Those were for 7 and 6 years, if I recall correctly. Milwaukee just won't do that. Boston can make that move for Price, but we can't suck up 1/3 or a 1/4 of our payroll on one guy for that long of a time frame. The club might make a lesser move in free agency - go for a solid #3 or something if they feel they need it. I see them taking a risk like the Cubs did with Lackey - 2-years at $18M a year. That's something that won't hamstring the team for half a decade. I just doubt they ever splurge on an ace for those numbers and those years. Barring a massive cash influx from somewhere, there is just no way that happens. The Brewers will need a farm system second to none to constantly keep talent flowing. They need to also hit more in those late rounds. Brent Suter was a 31st-round pick. Mike Fiers was a 22nd-round pick. For 20% of what it costs to pay Grienke for one year, the Brewers could hire another 30 scouts and to invest in some independent league teams. Use that as an extra feeder or two. -
Buying an ace on the FA market
Harold Hutchison replied to adambr2's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility. If all those options fail, then we'll probably see a new GM, a new manager, and we will be in another rebuilding plan. -
Do I even want to know what you think is his ceiling? A borderline #2/#3 starter.
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It sounds like they are pretty set on Villar being at 2nd. If he's at all in the plans at 3rd in 2017, I'd be surprised. Given that Scooter is a fairly low cost, controllable option at 2nd, I'm sure he's tradeable. His standalone value though, I would guess, is very minimal. At worst, I'd guess he'd return something around the Aaron Hill return, at best, probably a prospect in the 150-200 range. But Stearns has surprised me before. I can very well see Scooter being included in a trade to the Dodgers if Braun is sent to LA, given that they could use a 2nd baseman anyway. At Inside the Brewers, they said they needed to get a return commensurate with Braun's value. Honestly, Yasiel Puig is NOT it. And the Dodgers have Willie Calhoun - who cranked out 27 homers at AA - in their system at second. Trading Braun to L.A. does not look like a match to me.
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There are always exceptions to the rule. But suggesting a guy is the exception to the rule (before he actually is the exception to the rule) is usually a really bad way determine a guy's future value. I see your point, but Suter's performance so far indicates to me that as a reliever, he could be a left-handed Doug Jones as a floor. I don't think the numbers lie.
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Right now, I count 13 potential starters currently in-house for the Brewers for Spring Training/Opening Day 2017: Jungmann Garza Nelson Peralta Anderson Guerra Suter Wilkerson Hader Wang Cravy Woodruff (as a sleeper) Burgos (outside shot) By late 2017, I think you could add: Ortiz Bickford Perrin Lopez (comeback candidate) Jorge Ortega (comeback candidate) Adrian Ventura (outside shot) Morton, as an extreme ground-ball pitcher, only intrigues me if he comes cheap. But I might look for some pitchers with similar GB/FB and GO/FO ratios for the bullpen. But for the rotation, I think the Brewers could deal Anderson, Guerra, and Garza, wait to see if Peralta and Nelson pull it together, and try the other seven out to see if they have a sleeper or three.
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That sort of thing could be good, especially if he could be flipped for a lottery ticket prospect or two at the end of July. I think a lot depends, though, on the market for Scooter Gennett. If Gennett can be dealt for a good return, debating the options at third base (Hernan Perez, Braun, Ryan Cordell, low-cost FA, prospect acquired) can happen. If Gennett can't be dealt, then I'm content to stand pat with Villar at the hot corner - and see if he can get to the 20-60 mark this year.
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How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser." 303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.
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Brewers Town Hall Tonight... 11/3/16
Harold Hutchison replied to Harold Hutchison's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It had it's funny moments, but I think Counsell's comments on Arcia really did cement some of what I reflected on in the Gantner retrospective thread. To be honest, I owe Jim Gantner an apology of sorts. I hated seeing he was in the lineup - but perhaps there was stuff he did that wasn't showing up in the box score. I'll admit, over the years, I think I still would have preferred to keep Dave Nilsson behind the plate as a catcher, I'd have kept Braun at third after 2007, I'd have probably still have liked to see what a Khris Davis/Domingo Santana/Ryan Braun outfield could produce offensively in 2016, and I would probably still pick a plus bat/iffy glove over someone I perceive to be good field/no hit as a general rule. Oh yes, and if offered Curt Schilling for him in Baseball Mogul prior to the 1989 season, I'd probably still make the trade. -
For the rotation, you are right. Suter, Woodruff, Hader, Wang, Bickford, Ortiz, Perrin, and even the two Jorges (Lopez and Ortega) all deserve a shot. But for the bullpen, though, Morton's GB/FB and GO/FO ratios are very intriguing. Having a "ground ball" specialist in the pen could be very useful.
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Suter has done well enough as a starter that I am not ready to say his ceiling is only as a reliever. I view late-inning reliever (or even closer) as his floor, but I could see him as a very good starter as well (I don't think that performance starting at Colorado Springs can be entirely discounted when we consider his ceiling). But the point I see is, there's a lot of talent. Even Wang helps, because better to pay a #4/#5 starter league minimum than to sign some free agent for five times that. As for the starters, the three I'd really try to move over the offseason would be Guerra, Garza, and Anderson. With Guerra, I think it's a case of "selling high." Garza and Anderson might only provide lottery tickets, but I'll take those shots to see what Suter, Wang, and Cravy (among others) can do as starters. If we're gonna tank, tank productively. Find out just how good Suter is. If he can be a starter, great. If not, closer or reliever is always a nice fallback option.
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[sarcasm]Maybe Hernan Perez instead... [/sarcasm] j/k Seriously, though... earlier today, I figured out why I resisted moving him from third after 2007 and why I wanted him back there. I just hated seeing in box scores that Gantner was out there every day at second base, wondering, "Why is he out there? What does he contribute?"
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Surprised this hasn't picked up any notice here. https://www.facebook.com/events/321899978168856/
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I'm not inclined to sign him as a starter. Suter, Wang, Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Bickford, and Perrin are going to be getting their shots soon. With his GO/AO and GB/FB ratios, I wonder if he might not be an interesting asset out of the pen. Someone like Morton becomes a guy you bring in to kill a rally with a DP ball. "Ground ball specialist," something like that. I dunno, I'm just spitballin' here.
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Given that 2017/2018 are years we don't have much at stake, I'll bring up my oft-repeated proposal to move Braun back to third base until Erceg is ready for the majors. Braun remains a Brewer, the team gets to look at more young outfielders... win-win.
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Do not forget Brent Suter and Wei-Chung Wang - both lefties are in the rotation mix as well. Then there is Jon Perrin, who looks very good (the big worry aside from injury is acceptance to Harvard Law School). Hader, Ortiz, Suter, Woodruff, Bickford, Perrin, and Wang are all, I think, potential rotation contributors. If Jorge Ortega and Jorge Lopez can bounce back, that would be even better. Really, my hope for the offseason isn't for the Brewers to trade Braun. I'd rather see the Brewers move two or three of Guerra, Peralta, Nelson, Garza, and Anderson to open spots to see what some of these young pitchers can do. No six-man rotation stuff, or "spend a lot of time in the bullpen and maybe get a spot start" thing... just see if some of these young pitchers can do the rotation every five days.
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Ryan Cordell is not an infielder. The Rangers gave him a try in the infield and he was awful. I don't know why people keep bringing him up as a potential infielder. With an .803 OPS, I can find a modus vivendi with an .857 fielding percentage at third and a .907 fielding percentage at shortstop from the sixth infielder/fifth outfielder on the team.
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I'd move Clark to A+ (given his proven OBP skills), and keep Harrison at Wisconsin.
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On my ballot, five players were via trade (Cordell, Brinson, Hader, Isan Diaz, and Ortiz), one was a Rule V (Wang), and four were drafted (Suter, Erceg, Ronnie Gideon, and Perrin).
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I have a feeling, assuming he has other options, he only re-signs with the Brewers if he thinks he has a decent chance to make the big league club out of spring training. As of right now, if he doesn't, he'd be behind Brinson and likely Cordell (and possibly Phillips if he ends up in AAA) and fighting for the remaining AAA outfield at-bats with Reed and Wren. Obviously a lot can change, but there would likely be a clearer path to AAA playing time elsewhere than Milwaukee. For a 5th OF, Flores is as good a choice as anyone else. That said, by the end of 2017, I think it is quite plausible that the Brewers could have Hernan Perez as the 5th infielder and 4th outfielder, while Ryan Cordell is the 6th infielder and 5th outfielder. So, the other three or four bench spots could be... interesting to fill.
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I thought rookie status only ended with 130 ABs or 50 IP in a season...
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One last reason: For the Cubs, losing is a tradition.
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I'm liking Ronnie Gideon as the 1B of the future. Big power bat.
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Winter Trade Candidates?
Harold Hutchison replied to Mr Southpaw's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Given the paucity of free-agent starting pitching, and Garza's 2016 numbers not being awful (4.51 ERA), he could net a return similar to Adam Lind's last year. Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra could also net good returns. -
Way Too Early 2017 Predictions/Hopes
Harold Hutchison replied to Greenleaf1's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
My hopes: 1. The Brewers do not trade Braun for the sake of a deal, especially not for Puig. 2. The Brewers focus on seeing what they have in the outfield and among their young starters (Suter, Hader, Wang, Woodruff, Wilkerson?) 3. The Brewers sell high on Guerra, Carter, Gennett, Anderson, and Garza to get some more lottery tickets (or gems like Perez and Broxton).