EdgarDiazRocks

That REALLY looks bad. He cant lift his arm above his head.

nothing but curves to Francoeur . . .interesting. one of the Braves crew was in the winning sausage

Just in front of the warning track. Nothing to get excited about. Hah! I am really enjoying this turnabout on the normal TV situation.

well once again, with the "Braves throwback" jersey the pictures are confusing anyway. Why don't they ever wear Seattle Pilots jerseys?

the game isn't on TBS in milwaukee?

This is unbelievable, i can't watch or listen to the brewers because of a preseason game. I love the packers, but its still brewer season and I want to watch or at least listen to the brewers. And oddly this is only the third game I can watch this year.

Oh Hey! Game on! I can listen today. Let me dial the sucker up. What have I missed so far?

not in the game notes . . . Here's the branyan section . . .

Since I have access to these, i thought I would share some Notes From the Game Notes:

He writes little independent baseball books that nobody reads. www.amazon.com/exec/obido...72-7147823 He is a newspaper columnist in Mason City, Iowa, just had his 40 year anniversary in the newspaper biz and this is his "hobby" 'tho once he sold enough for a second printing. His next book is a bio of Iowa native and Hall of Famer, Dazzy Vance. retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pvancd101.htm Vance allowed a lot of baserunners but didn't let a lot of them score, mainly due to gaudy K Totals. Of course that was adifferent era, the guy threw 30 CG one year and logged 308 innings. Here is something he sent me recently about him after he confirmed the story via retrosheet . . .

Table 3 agrees with Tangotider's run frequency table I pasted into the "SABR FAQ" thread that's pinned (page 2). yes, but isn't it intersting that a HBP scores 1% more than a single or walk? And Table 3 is ment to show how often things lead to "A big inning" and other than the FIRST run HBP is exactly the same. Where does that 1% jump come from?

My Father-In-law in reasearching his new book wrote Retrosheet's Dan Smith to see if he had done any study of leadoff walks. The response was quite entertaining and interesting . . . . One thing that does really stand out is getting the leadoff hitter out results in a scoreless inning a whopping 84% of the time. That's amazing.

Well, since y?all went and put the category up I thought I would put up one of my favorite teams and series broke down, mainly because they are so Anti-?Moneyball? 1988 Dodgers W L 94 67 RS RA 628 544 Expected Win % .565 Actual Win % .584 1988 Dodgers Batting AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 5431 628 1346 99 587 437 947 .248 .305 .352 Worse, if you remove MVP Kirk Gibson the rest of the team looks like this . . . AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 4889 522 1189 74 511 363 827 .243 .296 .337 Mike Marshall and his .277/.314/.445, 20HR, and 24/93 BB/K rate becomes your star. And certainly no starter is as bad as Shortstop Alfredo Griffin with a .199/.259/.253 line. Now the first reaction on how this pathetic .obp team scored so many runs is likely to be, well they scored a lot on the road, "Chavez Ravine kills offensive numbers.? Sadly that?s wrong. The Dodgers hit better at homethan on the road than at home and scored about the same. Home RS AVG/OBP/SLG 316 .258/.310/.357 Road RS AVG/OBP/SLG 312 .238/.300/.347 So how did they score more than they should have been expected to? Using BP?s, ?Translated? stats their numbers are a little more respectable AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 5193 724 1409 161 685 458 948 .271 .335 .420 But I find the ?translated numbers a little interesting, especially concerning Kirk Gibson. Actual Gibson: AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 542 106 157 28 25 76 73 120 .290 .377 .483 Translated: Gibson: AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 517 119 158 26 37 89 75 121 .306 .402 .574 So Gibson has near 30 less AB?s, scores more and has 12 more homers while not adding but one hit and losing 2 Doubles? Also curious is that ?Translated? Steve Sax (yes, THAT Steve Sax) becomes a star. Actual Sax AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 632 70 175 19 5 57 45 51 .277 .325 .343 Translated Sax AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 604 78 186 24 9 64 48 52 .308 .360 .406 Sax was in the prime of his career and had two average seasons at 27 & 28 surrounded by two outstanding seasons at 26 and 29, I?ll accept that he was deflated by Chavez rather than just inconsistent, like say Steve Sax the rest of his career. So that gives them three players above average (Marshall?s numbers are for the most part are unchanged by translation) But how can ?translated? numbers result in actual runs? This team scored more runs than expected with their obp, even translated. It appears they were even more Anti-SABR. They were ?clutch? Situation AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG None On 3225 55 773 55 55 226 572 .240 .292 .339 Men On 2206 573 573 44 532 211 375 .260 .324 .371 RISP 1251 509 329 23 472 162 221 .263 .341 .375 Bases Loaded 95 105 35 2 99 6 17 .368 .375 .547 Raising your obp by 49 points and your slg by 36 points with RISP can?t be ignored, especially since the numbers jump even with just men on first, and while you can ?small sample? the bases loaded line all you want, those are still impressive numbers. Every time I bring the Dodgers up, somebody rightly points out their outstanding pitching. And indeed it was stellar. IP H ER BB SO GDP ROE ERA 1463.1 1291 482 473 1029 99 84 2.96 And as a comparison to the hitting numbers, here is how they did situational. Situation AB R HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG None On 3244 53 53 53 222 616 .237 .288 .328 Men On 2196 491 31 462 251 413 .238 .314 .325 RISP 1263 448 16 420 192 259 .237 .332 .330 Bases Loaded 105 85 2 81 5 22 .267 .283 .381 Opponents were considerably less ?clutch?. And to beat the odds again, the pitchers were less effective a Chavez than on the road. Home IP H ER BB SO ERA 736 688 256 246 509 3.13 Road IP H ER BB SO ERA 727.1 603 226 227 520 2.80 Indeed their pitching staff was good, and they had three dominant starters in Orel Hershiser, John Tudor, Tim Belcher and Tim Leary and their bullpen was just as solid, not that they got a lot of work. Starters IP H ER BB SO ERA 1030 932 369 333 684 3.22 Relievers IP H ER BB SO ERA 433 359 113 140 345 2.35 Of course taking the Chavez factor into the ?translation? they do lose their elite numbers. Translated: IP H ER BB SO ERA 1576.3 1456 631 511 1175 3.60 Hershiser begins to look a little more human giving up 12 more HR and having his era ?jump? to 2.75 Also the team has a defensive reputation unlike many others. Small problem: They weren?t that good. At least according to the BP numbers. The Shortstop combo of Dave Anderson and Alfredo Griffin had RAA?s of 13 and 9, respectively. Mike Scioscia was stellar with a 17 rating. But the rest of the team? Combined the 1B had a -2, Sax was Sax and logged a -14 and even with Pedro Guerrero departing at the trade deadline (for another pitcher for a team with plenty oddly, John Tudor) the 3B put up a whopping -22 collectively. The outfield fared a little better with Gibson collecting a +6 in right, the CF collective coming out even, but the LH was a hole with Marshall coming in at -7 and his backup Mike Davis no better at -5. So Pitching and Pitching got them through the regular season? Was the competition weak? Actually, the NL West 19 1988 had the 102 loss Atlanta Braves and 5 teams over .500 Los Angeles Dodgers 162 94 67 .584 - 628 544 Cincinnati Reds 161 87 74 .540 7.0 641 596 San Diego Padres 161 83 78 .516 11.0 594 583 San Francisco Giants 162 83 79 .512 11.5 670 626 Houston Astros 162 82 80 .506 12.5 617 631 Atlanta Braves 160 54 106 .338 39.5 555 741 So yes, pitching got them to the post season. But it?s hard to ignore that RS scored line and the over-expected win total. But winning the West was one thing, did this little team that could knock off two great teams? Did they enough to win a series against the far superior Mets? The Mets had a 10-1 record against the Dodgers in the regular season, sweeping them in Chavez Ravine and outscoring the Dodgers 49-18 in those games. They cruised to the post season New York Mets 160 100 60 .625 - 703 532 Pittsburgh Pirates 160 85 75 .531 15.0 651 616 Montreal Expos 163 81 81 .500 20.0 628 592 Chicago Cubs 163 77 85 .475 24.0 660 694 St. Louis Cardinals 162 76 86 .469 25.0 578 633 Philadelphia Phillies 162 65 96 .404 35.5 597 734 Note that they didn?t even need all their 162 games to get 100 wins, 2 contests were never rescheduled. They had. If anything a better pitching staff . . . IP H ER BB SO GDP ROE ERA 1439 1253 465 404 1100 96 72 2.91 Situation AB R HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG None On 3244 53 53 53 222 616 .237 .288 .328 Men On 2196 491 31 462 251 413 .238 .314 .325 RISP 1263 448 16 420 192 259 .237 .332 .330 Bases Loaded 105 85 2 81 5 22 .267 .283 .381 Their Starters went 5 deep. David Cone was as good as or better than Hershiser . . . David Cone: IP H ER BB SO GDP ROE ERA 231.1 178 57 80 213 11 9 2.22 Orel Hershiser IP H ER BB SO GDP ROE ERA 267 208 73 73 178 18 15 2.26 And Doc Godden, Ron Darling Sid Fernandez and Bob Ojeda behind him all had era?s of 3.25 or lower. The bullpen trio of Terry Leach, Roger McDowell and Randy Myers, augmented by Rick Aguilera returning from injury and whoever was the odd man out of the rotation (Leach as it turned out) looked as solid as anything. Starters IP H ER BB SO ERA 1097 939 362 293 863 2.97 Relievers IP H ER BB SO ERA 342 314 103 111 237 2.35 Translation catches up to them as much as it does the Dodgers, no more, no less Translated: IP H ER BB SO ERA 1550 1420 625 424 1231 3.63 So add to these two equally titan pitching staffs the Mets, solid balanced offense. 1988 NY Mets AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 5408 703 1387 152 659 544 842 .256 .325 .396 And to further illustrate the Dodgers odd situational splits . . . . Situation AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG None On 3105 82 796 82 82 247 463 .256 .316 .396 Men On 2303 621 591 70 577 297 379 .257 .337 .396 RISP 1391 528 333 35 486 212 251 .239 .331 .358 Bases Loaded 93 84 24 3 81 7 20 .258 .277 .419 They walked more, made better contact had better power, scored more runs. And they didn?t have their whole offense tied up in one player. Strawberry AVG OBP SLG HR .269 .366 .545 39 McReynolds AVG OBP SLG HR .288 .336 .496 27 Johnson AVG OBP SLG HR .230 .343 .422 24 Add in ?Mookstra?, OBP machine Wally Backman (.388) , Rookie sensation Gregg Jefferies and declining veterans Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter and one can see why they had dominated the Dodgers up to now. ?Translated?, they only get better AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 5146 812 1435 237 783 564 845 .279 .354 .478 All three of the ?stars? get better, Straw gets 54 HR, McReynolds gets a .359 obp and HoJo raises to .251/.372/.521 Their defense was pretty neutral across the board with the notable exception of the ancient Gary Carter pulling a -9 behind the plate. How could they lose? They first two games went exactly the opposite way you would expect, Gooden beat Hershiser, Belcher beat Cone. It was obvious that the Mets were pitching around Gibson and in Game 2 Marshall came through with three singles, a run and two RBI, both RBI came with two outs and runners in scoring position. Clutch? Game three Lasorda brought back the bulldog on three days rest. Good luck with that. Orel pitched well considering, but the Mets pounded the bullpen. Mets win 8-4 and look like they?re rolling. Game 4 the Dodgers win 5-4 in 12 with ?Cy? Hershiser coming on to get the final out and the save. Gee, I wonder why his career was so short? The winning blast came off Gibson?s bat with two outs in the top of the 12th. Gibson was wearing down fast, but he again lifted the team in Game 5 with a three run shot to give the Dodgers a 3-2 series lead heading back to LA. Oddly, Orel didn?t pitch. The Mets easily win Game 6 behind a Cone complete game and a Kevin McReynolds hitting display. So for game 7 Lasorda of course turns to Hershiser who has pitched in Games 1, 3 and 4. He shuts the Mets out. Strawberry/McReynolds/Hernadez/Carter: 0-14 Only problem? Gibson is out. He manages only one AB. So the Dodgers win and outscore the Mets 31-27, but how? Dodgers: AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 243 31 52 3 30 25 54 .214 .290 .288 Mets AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 240 27 58 5 27 28 42 .242 .330 .363 In the limited sample, the Mets offense out-performed the Dodgers as expected, but scored less. Kirk Gibson? AB R H HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG 26 3 4 2 6 3(2ibb) 6 .154 .233 .385 The splits reveal nothing useful. Strawberry, McReynolds, Jefferies and Hernandez all had great numbers. So were the Dodgers lucky? Were the Mets out-managed? HoJo did sit out game 7 but he has a lifetime .205/.271/.318 line against Hershiser so that is understandable. But the bottom line is clear. Even without their performance in the World Series against the mighty A?s without Gibson, save one swing, the team fights the stats at every turn, and keeps winning.

Runs Below the mythological Replacement Player. It's cumulative, but an easier way to show his VORPr (his VORP/gm.) extrapolated over 162 games, as I am want to do. Sullivan's VORPr is -.092, which means he costs his team a full run Well of course it's runs. Because not only do we get to make up "Player X", but then we get to "translate" his made up batting stats into made up runs scored and in the case of WARP include made up fielding and baserunning stats. And then all this is throwm into one big hopper and out spits a one size fits all number that anyone can use. -5.7. That's much worse than 28.8. Fire Him! These "one size fits all" numbers like Win Shares, Warp3 and VORP do really drive me nuts. It's like going shopping with the wife for a pair of pants. I go to the men's section, collect the right series of data for my body and buy a pair of pants. The inches around my waist the inches of inseam She goes to the wall picks out the arbitary number somebody assigned despite any sort of acknowledgment that girls might have different body shapes. 5'2" with wider hips? thats a "12(?)" 6'4" with thin hips? Also a "12" . . . It's why I can get a pair of pants in 10 minutes & a then have to wait an hour as she tries on 60 pairs to "find one that fits" It's the same with these numbers . . . In 1987 Tony Gwynn had a WARP3 of 10.8 and Eric Davis 10.3. Wow how exciting. They both were 10+ runs better than "Player X!" Despie the facts that they had totaly different seasons and are totally different players. Nothing is better than Tony Gwynn raw numbers to wallow around in. Thanks to Retrosheet I see that . . . In '87 Gwynn hit .370 /.447/.511 wit a bb/k ratio of 82/35(!!) in 157 games Didn't really care which hand you threw with RHP .376 /.457/.541 LHP .361/.433 /.470 and despite hitting only 7 HR and having nobody but John Kruk behind him, scored 119 times. Davis on the other hand hit .293/.399/.593 with 37(!!) HR and a bb/k rate of 84/134 in a injury shortened (read average Eric Davis) season of 129 games. Though RHP could handle Davis a lot better . . . RHP .272/.380/.526 LHP .340/.440/.741 And thanks to having hitters like Buddy Bell, Kal Daniels and Dave Parker behind him Davis scored 120 times! One more than Gwynn! I often hear how RBI is a useless stat, but in my opinon "Runs Scored" is overvalued by SABER formulas. removing the times that they scored themselves (HR), Gwinn reached bases a whopping 109 times more than Davis, yet had his teammates leave him out to dry on the bases. So Davis' WARP3 rewards him for having teammates who can drive him in. At least more than "Player X" teammates can. Also this just in, there is a rumor that "Player X" is secretly Scott Podsednik's older brother Rex. http://absoluteanime.com/speed_racer/_rex.jpg

Zzzzzz.. . . . .Z....Zz.......Z..z..z....zzz . . .*snork* Uh . .huh? Did you say something? I drifted off there. Oh yeah Corey Sullivan sucks because he's hitting 5.3(%?) worse than a nebulous mathmatical formula that changes every time a CF comes to the plate. Yep, makes perfect sense. So sorry Let me suggest another book Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea As in Zero point.

Oh and please inform us all on who exactly the mysterious "Replacement Player" is . . . .http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif And why PECOTA's formula is a secret akin to Nuclear Launch Codes . . .

I would like to point out that Bartlett Anchorage High School product Jamar Hill did go yard for the 13th time for St. Lucie in this game. Us Alaska boys gotta stick together.

My second brewer game on TV this season . .. Oh Joy. Must turn down volume. And get Beer. . . A cold Pacifico to be precise. I'm so left coast.

I feel bad for Bell. Welcome to Philly. M's fans still have warm & fuzzies for him.

Obviously, there are exceptions. Huston Street is one player I would have taken earlier than where the A's did, as he was the complete package, although I would have tried him as a starter first. But he's the only one among several highly-touted closing prospects that have come out the past few years, including Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and Craig Hansen. And I would have tried all three of those guys as starters before moving them to the 'pen for good. One thing about all those guys, Street included is that they all were both easy signs and budget picks by teams who care about such things or had multiple 1st and Supplemental picks. Hansen was one of How many Red Sox 1st & 2nd round picks this year? I'm not saying it's a bad idea, even a money saving idea, just saying that in the past it's been cheaper to get these guys than guy's who's agents sold them as starters in the first place. I'm sure with Cordero's and Streets' success, it will be less so from now on.

http://www.hughfraser.com/Images/back.jpg

Wow just dialed in the game and Lee puts one out. It must be me.

Braun to A+. If he keeps hitting, he'll at least be in AA to start next year, and that's pretty darn quick. See: Zimmerman, Ryan

We have reason to believe that RHP Brian Montalbo, a 7th round pick in 2003 out of the state of Alaska, has left the Power of his own choosing. Well, he did get his degree from Cal, so he has a future somwhere. Sad to see thae only Alaskan in the system depart 'tho http://www.brewerfan.net/images/playerpix/brian_montalbo.jpg http://www.icsglobal.com/b&b/al,ak,az,ar/AKFLAG.gif

Viva La Fermaint. Even Dozen.