JoeHova

Kevin Goldstein of BP said this about Brewer (who he ranked Milwaukee's 11th best prospect) before the season started: "Brewer is an all-or-nothing type of prospect who will either look like a star within the next couple of years or be off the radar." I think that's still pretty much the case, though his stock probably has slipped. He has great tools and he'll either figure out how to turn them into production or he won't. So far it looks bad but I wouldn't worry so much about his lack of progress just yet, as he was known to be a big-time project. That said, it's hard to look at a .550 OPS and be anything but discouraged. I would think the Brewers will give him a couple more years. Maybe not, but I can't see them cutting him after this season though.

Obviously Al and Joe believe he is worth nothing at this point. nothing is a slight overstatement. we just don't think he's worth much, or more than a lot of other minor league vets. Al said a couple times he could see him as a reserve, as could I.

I'm aware that "worst thread ever" is something of an internet meme, but even tongue in cheek, it seems like an overreaction. I just don't like implied censorship, I guess, which may be why I took it a little personally.

Why the snide, condescending remark? Some of us were having a discussion/argument. If you aren't interested, just ignore it, don't piss on everyone involved.

I'll be watching this, but I like to save up a few episodes of a new show before I watch it. I feel it helps me get into the show a little better. I'm pretty excited for it. So far all 3 TV shows that David Simon has been involved with (Homicide: Life of the Street, The Corner, and The Wire) have been excellent. Actually he's been on an upward swing, with Homicide being good, the Corner being better, and the Wire being even better than that. Not sure this will be able to keep that going, but it will be interesting to see them try. I 2nd the complaint about Lucky Louie being canceled though. That sucked, I thought it was the best sitcom since King of the Hill (which coincidentally also stars Pamela Adlon). If you liked Lucky Louie, you should check out "The Minor Accomplishments of Jackie Woodman" on IFC. It stars Laura Kightlinger, who played Adlon's friend on Lucky Louie. The show has gotten no buzz that I'm aware of, but it is hilarious.

They have Chick-Fil-As in Wisconsin, or at least they used to. That place is excellent, despite the founder being some weird nut. Apparently they invented the chicken sandwich. McDonald's new "southern style" chicken sandwiches are on obvious rip-off of Chick-Fil-A. There are only 2 White Castles in Wisconsin, I always like getting some of their stuff. I used to really like Big Boy's and there are no more in Wisconsin, but the past few times I've been to ones in Illinois or Ohio, the food hasn't been good. I live in Minneapolis now and for a long time, there were no Checkers over here. One finally opened a few months ago, which was pretty cool. I like that place a lot, they have excellent fries. They don't have Wong's Wok over here either, though I'm not sure exactly what the story with that restaurant is (I mean, I don't know how big of a chain it is). They've got some excellent fried chicken though. They are such a huge step up from the disgusting LeeAnn Chin's that are prevalent in Minnesota. Not being able to get Wong's Wok was a big blow when I first moved here.

Good luck to Richie. They sure hated him in Seattle, hopefully it will be different in NY.

BTW, I should clarify that I know Uzbekistan is not in Europe, I was just saying that some of these smaller countries sometimes try to compete athletically with their bigger brethren but don't actually have the money to do it, despite whatever promises are made.

Interesting. I saw that Moore has been quite upset with the idea of Watchmen being adapted for the screen. Coincidentally, I bought my 3rd or 4th copy of Watchmen just a couple days ago (I've let people borrow my others over the years and they've never come back) and was rereading it. Moore definitely put a lot of thought into that book, I can see why he'd be upset about it being condensed into a 2 hour (or even 3 hour) movie. OTOH, other classic novels have been made into classic movies (Grapes of Wrath, To Kill A Mockingbird, Schindler's List) that have enhanced the reputation of the book. Maybe that can happen this time too. The fact that it's directed by a hack is less than encouraging, but stranger things have happened. And at least the hack is from Green Bay http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

Eto'o better get paid up front. I've heard stories about basketball players in 2nd tier Eastern European leagues getting stiffed on their salaries. From what I've heard, southpaw, Ronaldinho is indeed with Milan now.

Then you misunderstand the word. Translation means: "the conversion of something from one form or medium into another", in other words, the conversion of minor league numbers into major league numbers. It's funny that you accuse me of using language incorrectly when you apparently have little idea of what you are referring to. Meanwhile, a projection is "an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones". MLEs attempt to tell you what happened, not what can be expected to happen in the future. They are subject to the same small-sample noise that any numbers are subject to over a given couple months, which is why the better projection systems use several seasons of data and other factors to project what they believe will happen. You are correct that a projection is an estimate but no one has come close to disputing that, so you are arguing against a straw man.

Nobody is comparing him to Nelson Cruz. I was merely using Cruz as an example of a guy doing even better than Brad is. And what does it matter that Nelson was the Brewers minor league player of the year 5 years ago? I dunno, I just don't think Nelson will be a very good ML player. Why is that such a crime? There is plenty of evidence to back such a position up.

I thought it was obvious that I was saying that all 30 teams will need somebody to stand at 1st base next year. Whatever the current configuration of those 30 is, it won't be the same next year, so theoretically, any team could be looking to get a 1st baseman at any time. The Orioles don't have anybody there now except Millar. A lot can change in 8 months though. They could sign Teixiera. They could move Huff from DH to 1st. They could do any number of things that don't involve Brad Nelson. In your opinion. In my opinion, I need more evidence before I can say it's not a fluke, and even if it isn't one, it's not such a compelling performance from a 25 year old 1st baseman during his 4th go-round in AAA. This is my fault. I didn't mean to use it as an argument, just as an example. What I meant was that Wieters or Nolan Reimold could play 1st for a year or they could acquire someone in a deal for Sherrill or Roberts or Cabrera. I was actually going to bring up Piazza, but I passed on it. Oh well. I meant that Nelson is a failed prospect. He went from being the Brewers #1 prospect to being their #45 prospect (P50) and signed with the team as a minor league free agent for 2008.

I just saw a review (Salon) that hated it. That's the first I've seen, but she made some interesting points that did scale back my enthusiasm a bit. Anyway, do people think it's worth the extra drive/hassle to try to find an IMAX showing? I heard the footage itself is cool but it sounds stupid to have a movie shot in two distinct aspect ratios. Also, that seems like it will mess up the home video release, at least until we all get home IMAXes.

What? I didn't call you anything, I was speaking in general terms. Who do you mean? Their wives/kids? Because otherwise I'm not sure what you could be referring to. 100 people leaving, even if they all make $400,000 per year is $40,000,000. How much of that gets spent on property and sales taxes in the city? Not too much. And even if every single penny of that went right into the city's coffers, that only would account for like 2% of the city's budget. I don't see what the big deal is. Some jobs leave. Some new ones will take their place. The city has actually maintained it's population for the first time in awhile. That's a good sign.

Milwaukee has bigger problems than where a hundred yuppie d-bags spend their disposable income. If that makes people want to leave, oh well. It's laughable to think that a city of 600,000 should bend over backward to keep some marketers or that the loss of said marketing people constitutes any kind of "brain drain".

can I ask what would be the point of retaining Milwaukee's tax base if, in order to do it, the city had to give so many incentives and breaks as to barely be collecting any taxes at all? It seems bizarre to make an argument that having a business in town is important because of the tax revenues it generates, but then go on to say that to keep the business, the city should give the business upwards of $20 million in tax breaks. What would be the point? Let them leave, it's irrelevant anyway, I'm sure none of those people actually lived in the city of Milwaukee. Maybe they went to a few restaurants or a Brewers or Bucks game once in awhile but overall the effect will be negligible as long as the brewery itself doesn't leave.

I can't speak for sbrylski, but I would think he's basing the assessment that LaPorta is probably a better hitter than Gamel on their respective IsoD's and IsoP's. LaPorta's isolated discipline is .109, while Gamel's is .058 and LaPorta's isolated power is .283 versus Gamel's .234. However, if a person thinks Gamel is legitimately a guy who will have a batting average 80 points higher than LaPorta's, then those things are irrelevant. I don't think that will be the case, though it's definitely possible that Gamel will be a high BA guy while LaPorta will be a low BA guy. However, the gap in their batting averages on balls in play is over .130 points, which seems unlikely to be sustainable. I think it's pretty defensible to say that LaPorta is probably the better hitter right now, despite Gamel's superior BA and OPS. I wouldn't argue too much with someone who said the opposite though. I think both positions are defensible.

Even if some of the 50 guys doing better than Nelson by raw OPS would be knocked down below him when adjusting for park effects because they are playing in Colorado Springs or Albuquerque or Las Vegas, there are still dozens doing better. Also, the IL is a lower offense league, so some of those guys would probably pass him when adjusting their numbers. I just used OPS because it gave a simple, easy to understand (or so I thought) ballpark figure. Whether the exact number is 60 or 50 or 40, it doesn't change the general idea. They certainly do need a 1B, as will 29 other teams. Why would it be Nelson rather than any other guy? Why would they give up Roberts or Sherrill for Nelson when they could grab him in a couple months (as you yourself say) for $50,000? That's what I don't understand. Exactly (though we can debate how much of a chance 440 ABs spread over (mostly) 2 years really is). So why would a guy with a similar but worse profile be a great bet to succeed instead? Cruz got his first shot at 24, when he had nearly identical numbers to what Nelson is doing as a 25 year old. I would actually argue the opposite. Guys like Salome (ie- nice prospects) are probably more likely to be manning 1st for the Orioles next year than a guy like Micah Hoffpauir or Brad Nelson. Teams just don't use failed guys like Nelson at 1st very often. Anybody can play it, which means that the pool of players is everybody. Kevin Millar (signed out of the Northern League) is the only non-prospect who is playing 1st right now (among 26 qualified players). Otherwise, the closest are Mark Teahen (who was dealt for Carlos Beltran, so he was valued by someone) and Mike Jacobs (who was dealt for Delgado, so ditto). Every single other guy was a very highly regarded prospect. Maybe Brad can look at Carlos Pena and take some heart, but Pena lost his prospect luster while he was playing in MLB, opposed to Brad who lost it in the low minors.

How not? Their stats translate just as well, which is the whole point of MLEs. It shows what a player would have done in MLB. What would it matter if their translated .800 OPS was from AAA, AA or even A+? It's all equal. Probably. So what? It doesn't change my point. I would think that too, but it still doesn't make them a projection. Why? We're not talking about top prospects here, we're talking about performance and what a guy could do now.

also, if we're using that ZiPS calculator, we should count all the guys in lower levels whose stats translate as well or better than Nelson's. For example, Salome (a 22 year old catcher vs. a 25 year old 1st baseman) translates at .348 OBP, .456 SLG. That would rank Salome 10th out of the 40 guys who have caught a game in the NL so far this year and 7th out of 20 guys who have 110 or more ABs. Yet I don't hear anyone clamoring for a spot to be cleared for Angel. Lucroy translates almost (but not quite) as well. anyway, Brad is having a nice season and I'm happy he's put himself back on the map. I just don't think he's a viable option starting 1st baseman.

did you hear that there was an error in the first edition? An interesting find though.

I also question the validity of the 740 MLE. I am more inclined to trust the work of the creator of ZiPS, whose tool calcualted Nelson's MLE this year to be above 800. Our point is that if Nelson's .897 translates so well, what do the 50 guys with better AAA OPS's translate as? Also, MLE is not a projection, it is a translation. Nelson's projection will assuredly be much lower than whatever his MLE is this year because he has 2 horrible years preceding this one that must be taken into account. His Zips projection before this season was .309 OBP, .381 SLG. His PECOTA was .325 OBP, .404 SLG (which is actually unexpectedly not that horrible and again calls into question BPs methodology because his raw OBP in AAA last year was less than that and they have him losing only 40 points of OPS overall going from AAA to MLB). Even then though, that .730 (or my .740) would rank him dead last among (14 qualified) NL 1st basemen in OPS. An .800 OPS (going by the BP translation) would rank him 10th in raw OPS but probably actually 12th because a couple of the guys slightly below him play in pitchers parks. I stand by my thesis that Nelson is a fringey MLer. Maybe he'll get a shot, maybe not, but no team (including the Brewers) will make any plan that's contingent on him at this point.

So what is that, Raul Ibanez level or so? I personally hope he becomes a star (which would lend more (some?) credence to the idea of the Brewers developmental machine), but you're right, if he becomes a Jim Thome or a Frank Thomas, that would be hard to swallow.

This is the US team we're talking about. Lawrie did make the Canadian team. Yeah, I thought it was obvious I knew that Lawrie was Canadian when I used the word "Canadian" twice. I was pointing out that Brewer fans will still have someone to cheer for in the Olympics, the title of the thread refers to the Beijing Olympics, not the US team. I'm not so xenophobic that I can't enjoy the performance of foreign athletes in the Olympics.