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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    This could just be a negoiating ploy on the part of the Angels. They are publically telling Boras and Mark that Mark is the Angel's priority but that they won't lose out on other targets while Boras does his thing. If Mark wants to play with the Angels, he should negotiate with them. It's not good for Mark to lose the Angels as a bidder, because that decreases the number of buyers looking for his services, probably down to NY and Boston, and neither of them seem to have been aggressive at this point.
  2. kramnoj
    Apparently the Red Sox have offered Tazawa $6M, no mention whether it was a major league deal: http://www.baseballthinkf.../red_sox_offer_tazawa_6m/
  3. kramnoj
    It seems to me that people around here tend to undervalue Parra Who here is undervaluing Parra? All Brewerguy said was that it might take Parra to get DeJesus. He didn't say he endorsed it, he is just looking at the trade from the Royals POV, which too few fans realistically do when making a trade proposal.
  4. kramnoj
    2008 was the first time that DeJesus was a better player with the bat than Cameron, and he had to hit over .300 to do so. This is probably all moot anyway. The cost to get DeJesus is probably going to be more than he would be worth to the Brewers. He at this point is a corner OF where he will be plus defensively. They don't have anybody better to replace him, so there's not much need to trade him.
  5. kramnoj
    Braun could play CF. His offensive advantage would probably even outweigh the balls he wouldn't get to. I don't think it would be ideal, though, unless the other OFers were Dunn and Manny. I think Cameron's ability to play CF this year was a boost to the pitching performances the Brewers got this year. I would prefer a good defensive player in CF, unless their offense is so bad that it doesn't make up for their defense (Juan Pierre).
  6. kramnoj
    Are there recent examples of Yankees who undeservedly went into the HoF? Mussina as a HoFer probably depends on how big one's HoF is. He's not among the truly elite. I would say he's in the upper echelon of the 2nd tier of pitchers. He fits in my personal HoF. It will be interesting to see how the HoF does treat him. Chris Jaffe at THT has been tracking HoF patterns and has noted that recent elections are voting in fewer players. If that trend continues, Mussina will have to wait in line behind his contemporaries.
  7. kramnoj
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/a...otstove2008&fext=.jsp says that the Tigers are looking to acquire Lugo from the Red Sox and want to exchange one of their two bad contracts, Willis or Robertson. I don't know enough about the Tigers to know their budget, but I thought if the Tigers were willing to take on that much money for a SS that really isn't that good, maybe the Brewers should offer Hall as a SS. I don't see the Brewers taking on a bad contract in exchange (at least Hall has value as the short end of a platoon), but I think it would be worth exploring if the Tigers would have interest in Hall and what the Brewers could get in exchange.
  8. kramnoj
    CC could reject the Yankees offer because he may not want to play in NY. Melvin has said that he will talk to CC's agent middle of this week. At that point Melvin is going to ask if CC has any desire to play in Milwaukee and what it will take to have him stay. If the response from the agent is beyond what Melvin thinks is appropriate, Melvin will say so and will start focusing elsewhere. If CC is willing to take less to stay in Milwaukee, Melvin and the agent will exchange some numbers. I expect that we will hear something from Melvin next week. Most likely it will be that CC isn't ready to commit to signing with the Brewers at this time and that the Brewers have to move on to make sure that they don't lose out on improving their team.
  9. kramnoj
    It does look like TH amended his blog. This is the blog entry that garnered attention:http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/34501544.html . If you go to the Brewers Blogs section of the JS, you don't see that entry anymore, you see this: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/34490694.html Total speculation on my part, but it looks like Melvin may have put in a call to TH after his blog was posted and let TH know that he took some comments from Melvin the wrong way.
  10. kramnoj
    According to this: http://sportsillustrated....iveup.fivedown/index.html Peavy is legally blind without contacts and for some reason had trouble with filling his prescription in 2006. I think that had much more to do with his struggles in 2006 than the WBC. Quite a few of the other pitchers listed were near the end of their effectiveness. Santana is really the only good pitcher in the group listed. I think there's some risk for a pitcher to go out of their routine, and to have emotions amped up beyong what is normal in a regular ST game. I don't think the risk is high, but any risk for what maybe the most important pitcher for the 2009 Brewers may be too much.
  11. kramnoj
    I haven't looked into any NY state law references yet, but I thought this article on the "jock tax" was interesting: http://moneycentral.msn.c...ontent/Taxes/P112872.asp. In Illinois the law is that athletes are taxed the full amount of their income, plus they have to pay the jock tax in other states. Sammy Sosa tried to get credit for taxes paid out of state and was denied.
  12. kramnoj
    All away games are taxed in the state they are played in. So its on only half the games. Is this something you know, or are you guessing? I don't think players are exempt from paying their income tax because they are working out of state. They may get credit for paying the portion of tax they had to pay to another state, but states aren't so willing to give up money that they would just exempt workers from paying tax. It is true that CC could get more in endorsements in NY. It's also true that housing is incredibly expensive, that everything is more expensive. But it probably isn't going to be relevant to CC and his choice. I don't think the Brewers offer is going to be close enough that CC is going to need to make these kind of calculations. If CC wants the most money, I don't have much doubt that the Yankees will be the team to offer it.
  13. kramnoj
    According to one Wiki entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_income_tax the state of NY has up to a 8.14% income tax and the city of NY has up to a 4% income tax. According to this: http://www.dor.state.wi.us/faqs/pcs/taxrates.html the top rate in WI is 6.75%. So about 5% more tax, if the NY city tax is based on where you are employed and not where you live. Almost meaningless since most states tax baseball players for games played there anyway. This, of course, is exaggeration. It certainly makes a difference if 162 of your games are taxed in the highest tax city, as opposed to half a dozen games.
  14. kramnoj
    I'm not sure that I take those Melvin comments at face value. I really hope he has a better feel for the player market to not be shocked that CC would get this kind of offer from the Yankees. I'm guessing he just provided those comments as part of the PR campaign the Brewers will provide if CC takes the huge money from the Yankees.
  15. kramnoj
    Is there a reason that San Fran isn't in the equation? CC clearly loved being in the playoff hunt this year. SF offers the advantage of being near his home, but they don't look to be a good team for a couple of years. So with SF he is going to go to a non-competitive team and probably take less money than he could get elsewhere. So it all comes down to how much he values being close to home during the season.
  16. kramnoj
    Even if he gets a ring with New York, everyone knows that it will be completely hollow and meaningless because of their financial advantage. You make good points with the rest of your post, but I can pretty much guarantee this doesn't apply to the people who matter: the players and their fans. This offer from the Yankees shouldn't surprise anyone. It doesn't change anything. If CC wants the most money, he'll be a Yankee. If CC values something else (being closer to home, being with a smaller market that can still be competitive, etc) he'll make whatever choice is most important to him. I think it's a good thing that CC spoke with Jeter. It shows that he has concerns about playing in the NY market.
  17. kramnoj
    Looks like he will be available. I'm not seeing where this article indicates that Greinke will be available this offseason. The Royals control him through 2010. If the Royals can't sign him to a deal, the article seems to indicate that he would be available after 09, but nothing says that he is likely to be traded now.
  18. kramnoj
    If it's true for pitchers than a 20 game winner should get about $90mil/yr or maybe $40 mil per year if your talking about wins over the "average" pitcher If you could find a pitcher who consistently won 20 games a year, he would probably be worth $40m/year. I'm sure someone can point to a specific explanation, but I believe it is based on runs above average (or maybe runs above replacement, not sure). Anyway, 10 runs is the equivalent of 1 win, so if CC is 5 wins above x, he would be worth close to $25M/year, depending on the value that you use. I believe it is based on looking at how much FA players get, and how many wins above x those players were. I do think that people are using this number incorrectly. I think it is best used to determine how much value teams got retroactively. I don't think it's all that useful in determining what players will (or should) get. Players will get what they get based on supply and demand, not some formula that looks at how players have been paid in the past. Teams aren't going to base their offers on making sure they aren't paying more than $4.5m/win. They are going to look at where they want to upgrade, who is available, how much money they can spend, project their roster forward a few years (don't sign a big FA to a long term deal at a position that you expect to be playing a rookie at next year), and then determine where they can spend their money most efficiently. If a team is getting under market value at key positions because of young players or undermarket contracts, they can afford to pay overmarket deals at holes elsewhere in the system if needed.
  19. kramnoj
    I would say that you play a prospect where he will have the most value. As seen with LaPorta, a prospect's value isn't neccessarily tied to his future as a Brewer. If the Brewers truly have a problem in 2010-2011 when they have 3 major league quality catchers, they can give Lawrie a season to learn another position in the minors or trade him for a need elsewhere. I also think some are overstating how many games a catcher misses. A young catcher isn't going to only catch 120 games, that's just hyperbole. And it's certainly not realistic to expect a player to start 160 games at another position. The leader for the Brewers this year was Hart with 156, and he probably should have sat some in September if Kapler wasn't hurt. One of the best ways to have an advantage is to have a superior hitter at catcher. If Lawrie will have the bat as advertised and can stick behind the plate, he will have more value catching 140 games than he would in 15 more games at another position.
  20. kramnoj
    I would say that you play a prospect where he will have the most value. As seen with LaPorta, a prospect's value isn't neccessarily tied to his future as a Brewer. If the Brewers truly have a problem in 2010-2011 when they have 3 major league quality catchers, they can give Lawrie a season to learn another position in the minors or trade him for a need elsewhere. I also think some are overstating how many games a catcher misses. A young catcher isn't going to only catch 120 games, that's just hyperbole. And it's certainly not realistic to expect a player to start 160 games at another position. The leader for the Brewers this year was Hart with 156, and he probably should have sat some in September if Kapler wasn't hurt. One of the best ways to have an advantage is to have a superior hitter at catcher. If Lawrie will have the bat as advertised and can stick behind the plate, he will have more value catching 140 games than he would in 15 more games at another position.
  21. kramnoj
    How much payroll do you think this adds to the Rays? I don't think it would add an immense amount for 2009, certainly not enough to turn it down solely for monetary reasons. I also don't think we should be assuming that the Rays will be afraid to add payroll. Their opening day payroll for their first team was $20M more than it was last year, and that was in 2000. A Tampa team that draws crowds should be able to operate in the $60-$70M payroll.
  22. kramnoj
    Mark Ellis is back with the As for 2-3 years and they have a couple 2B in the minors that are a couple of years away. The As don't really have use for Weeks at 2B.
  23. kramnoj
    so why trade an above average CF (something you need) for something you already have? I tried to answer this question, but I'll repeat. The Brewers have a surplus of 4/5 pitchers right now, but don't have a full bullpen of good talent right now. At the minimum, if the Brewers get Kennedy, they slot him in at 5 and they immediately improve at one spot in the bullpen. They don't make this move unless they think Melky will bounce back, so they drop in value, but they have a player in CF for a couple of years until they get improvement from the minors. They get a utility player in Betemit for a reasonable amount. And they get millions of dollars to spend to improve elsewhere on the team. If you choose to frame it the way you are, sure it doesn't make sense. But this trade would have like 3-4 ripple effects on the Brewers, decreasing value in one spot, but hopefully improving in several other areas.
  24. kramnoj
    IMO the drop in talent is to much to rationalize the loss Cam's $10M salary. The Brewers aren't rebuilding next year, they are trying to be competitive and I fail to see how trading Cameron for Cabrera and Betemit doesn't make us a worse team. I don't think Melvin is trading Cameron unless he believes he is getting reasonable talent in return and he has the ability to spend that money elsewhere to improve the team. I don't see Melvin trading Cameron just to get rid of the salary. If there is no deal that brings back enough, and there aren't any other fits in the FA market or trades to make good use of Cameron's salary, then stick with Cameron.
  25. kramnoj
    I don't understand this thinking. You need 4/5 guys to win, and with Kennedy, you would get 6 years of cost control, including the first 3 near minimum years. You wouldn't trade one year of an above average player for that? The Brewers have plenty of 4/5 guys now, but 3 years from now Bush will be expensive or will be gone, Suppan won't be here, McClung may have become valuable or may be out of the league, Villenueva won't be cheap anymore, etc. If Kennedy was the 5th SP next year, that means that McClung and Villenueva could be valuable members of the bullpen, allowing the Brewers to save money there as well. Of course, I think this is all moot, as I don't think he would be part of the deal. Edit: Then why wait until the last day? He could have announced it then. It was reported that the Brewers held meetings on the topic. If he was so sure, why hold a meeting? It's possible it was done as a PR move. Announcing one transaction at a time keeps the Brewers in the news each day. If you do multiple things per day, you may not get quite as much coverage per event. Just my speculation, but I think it's not unreasonable to think that the Brewers stage transactions when possible for the most media coverage.
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