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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    I don't see Kennedy coming back in this deal with Melky and Betemit. I just don't see Cashman giving up a young SP for a one year deal with Cameron. Melky is clearly expendable and Betemit wouldn't be much of a loss for the Yankees. There is some speculation over at btf that Alan Horne would be the pitcher that the Yankees could throw in. That sounds more reasonable from the Yankee viewpoint. Melky is rumored to be a big partyer that shows up to work dragging after clubbing until the wee hours of the morning. Melky could have just had an awful year, or he might need to refocus his energies on being a professional. His first two years would be better than we could expect from Gwynn. If the Brewers trade for him and don't get much out of him, he's likely to be traded or maybe even non-tendered as he gets into his arby years. I think Melvin picked up Cameron with the thought that he would be ok with Cameron in CF, but he wasn't sold on this being the best possible solution. If he thinks that Melky can play good defense and get back to being close to a league average hitter, than Melvin would probably like to spend that $10M on pitching if CC doesn't return to the Brewers.
  2. kramnoj
    I believe that is regarding an offer that was made to Fielder before the 2008 season, and was referenced in one of the myriad of hot stove articles that have come out in the last week or two. I'm not sure if it was in the JS, or if it was Rosenthal, or one of the NY papers. Edit: Google is my friend. Here is one link: http://www.sportingnews.c...rn/viewtopic.php?t=479610
  3. kramnoj
    I guess it depends on what her role is. If her only assignment is doing the Saturday night game of the week, she could still do some Brewers games, since FSN didn't even broadcast many Saturday games (at least not the full crew). But that studio show is going to have to fill a lot of time if it's going to start an hour before games start and go through the end of West Coast games. MLB may hire a handful of reporters to cover important series each week, do interviews, etc, and I could see Trenni getting the head sideline reporter job as well as doing other games through the week. Please note this is my speculation only. It sounds like some people here have some inside scoop and may know more.
  4. kramnoj
    Like I said, what we are going to end up with is same offense with worse pitching? How is this going to improve our team? This improves the team by not allowing it to be 2-3 Wins worse with Gwynn in the lineup. As for Edmonds, ZiPs projects him to be worse than Cameron next year, with a .334/.425 projection. Edmonds certainly had a nice 250 ABs for the Cubs, but he was awful for the Padres and he wasn't good the year before. And he'll be 39 next year. Combine that with the excellent point that you can't count on Edmonds being available, and it's hard to argue that bringing Cameron back isn't the best decision.
  5. kramnoj
    Let's put some numbers into context here. ZiPs expects Cameron to have a similar season to 2008, but to lose about .30 points of slugging. I think that's reasonable. In the 120 games Cameron played, his bat was worth .5 a win over an average hitter. Add 20+ more games played in 2009 with slightly less power, I think a .5 batting win projection is fair. ZiPs projects Gwynn to have an OBP/SLG of .313/.314. I know that Gwynn supporters will find that to be too pessimistic, but that is better than what Gwynn has done so far in the majors, and it's not that far from the .328/.331 that Gwynn managed in AAA in 2008. Let's try to figure out how bad that would be in batting wins. Gwynn's projection for 2009 is worse than what Kendall provided with the bat for the Brewers in 2008, when Kendall was rated as providing -1.9 batting wins. There could easily be a 2.5-3 Win difference in the batting of Gwynn and Cameron. Gwynn isn't expected to be better on the bases or in the field, so that 2.5-3 Wins is what we are looking at. There's no way that the Brewers can expect to be able to buy 2.5-3 Wins for $10M in FA at any other position, or get equivalent value. I do think there's a chance that Cameron could still be traded. I don't think Melvin picks up the option unless he is comfortable with Cameron in the lineup. But if Melvin finds a trade for Cameron that would bring back good value and if Melvin thinks he can find the next Podsednik or Clark, Cameron might find himself in another uniform in 09.
  6. kramnoj
    The talent stuff isn't sourced. Unsourced Wiki isn't reliable. I could definitely see Trenni getting the job though. The network is at the minimum going to need one announcing crew for the Saturday night game of the week, and Trenni would be a good choice there as sideline reporter, unless they get someone higher profile (I don't know who that would be). Matty would definitely be a fun caller, as long as he isn't restricted too much by network suits. It also sounds like MLB is going to have a studio show that starts an hour before games start and will go on for several hours. I don't know if they plan on having a reporter at each home game, but they will probably want a handful to go out and cover the important series of each week. This is definitely a good time to be a baseball media person, quite a few new jobs will be available.
  7. kramnoj
    On the subject of this trade though, wow! Kansas City should have had to throw in a decent AA prospect or a guy like Billy Butler to balance this trade out. Why do you think this? Jacobs might have negative value next year. He will get arby money, he's not that good of an offensive player, and he has awful defensive numbers according to a few PBP metrics. According to Dial's OPD system, there were only 16 players who contributed less than Jacobs last year in the NL (-3 runs offensively, -12.6 defensively, compared to position).
  8. kramnoj
    I'm guessing that means they have a high rating so I'm not really sure why Counsell has such a high rating. I don't know the specifics of ZiPs defense, but ZR is the most available PBP metric, and Counsell does well there compared to Hardy, who was 14th this year among qualified SS and 20th last year. Counsell's ZR would have been 4th in 2008 and 2nd in 2007 in limited innings.
  9. kramnoj
    Hall has value as a SS and a utility player to teams. The key word in that sentence is value. I don't know that Hall at $15M+ over the next two years is of value to the Royals. There are teams that may value him for those reasons at that money, maybe the Orioles if they can't get some of the attractive FA on the market. Also, in reference to the listed chart, the Fair rating for Hall at SS indicates that ZiPs rates Hall as below average, in the 21-40% lower quintile.
  10. kramnoj
    Dillon slugged only .409 in AAA this year. The Brewers could feel that he is done as being a useful contributor at the majors. ZiPs is a wonderful tool, but even Tango says that good scouting is more important when it comes to one player than a projection. McGehee doesn't look like much, and Joe was a fun guy to root for, but I trust that Melvin is going to make the right decision most of the time.
  11. kramnoj
    The bloom is significantly off of Cano, Cabrera and Hughes. I think the Yankees would pull the trigger on that trade. It's only one year. The Yankees aren't going to trade away players they don't have replacements for in their system. There's no need to trade for Fielder when Texeira is on the market. The Yankees would be better off bring Giambi back than trading away 3 players for Fielder.
  12. kramnoj
    The Yankees wouldn't give up that much talent for Johan Santana, no way they are giving that up for Fielder.
  13. kramnoj
    Pierre has been brought up here as a possibility for a CF. He's certainly available if a team wants him. The problem is, he doesn't even get on base anymore. His last 4 years his OBP has been below average, even considering park and league effects. Combine that with his lack of power, he is close to replacement level offensively, if not below it. He's under contract for 3 more years, at $28.5M. He should not be an option for CF for the Brewers. They should be able to get better production, and much better value, from a 4A player somewhere at minimum cost. The Brewers would be better off playing Gwynn every day than spending that much money on Pierre.
  14. kramnoj
    2009 Braves Commitments: Hudson SP $13M Jones 3B $10M (this is an option, but fairly sure its a lock) Soriano RP $6.1M Gonzales RP arby $3-4M? Kotchman 1B arby $2M? Infante U arby $2M? Diaz OF arby $1.5M? McCann C $3.5M Francoeur RF arby $1-2M? Johnson 2B arby $2-3M? James SP arby $2-3M? Moylan RP pre-arby $.5M Escobar SS pre-arby $.5M Bennet RP pre-arby $.5M Carlyle RP pre-arby $.5M Acosta RP pre-arby $.5M Anderson OF pre-arby $.5M Blanco OF pre-arby $.5M Campillo SP pre-arby $.5M Jones OF pre-arby $.5M Jurrjens SP pre-arby $.5M Brado UI pre-arby $.5M Reyes SP pre-arby $.5M Sammons C pre-arby $.5M I count about $53M (that could be quite a bit off, depending on arby) for the 24 players listed above. The Braves payroll to open this year was over $102M. I don't know what their plans are for their budget this year is going to be, but it certainly looks like they could be players in the FA market. As I see it, their biggest needs are OF and SP. They look to have 3 good SP and then question marks. Their projected outfield just looks awful. This team was a 90 Loss team this year, but their pythag was 79-83. If they improve enough with FA acquistions, they could be playoff contenders next year. Edit: I just saw that Hudson may be out for 2009. That obviously hurts. It would be difficult to sign enough FA to move this team to the 90ish Win mark that may be needed to be a playoff contender next year.
  15. kramnoj
    He'd most likely account for between 11-12.5% of the payroll. 9% is just a strange number to pull out of nowhere, why not just say about 10%? There's a reason Bob and Brian are afraid of doing math on the air. I knew it wouldn't be 10%. I quickly did the math in my head and thought it would be 11% but because 11 is bigger than 10 I was thinking someone would call me for exaggerating, so I reversed the numbers without actually taking the time to calculate. My mind is a dark and scary place. I wouldnt' recommend further ventures there.
  16. kramnoj
    Heck, if the Brewers tried to extract value for Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas, why wouldn't they try to get something in return for a good player? One significant difference would be that Cameron will make about 3 times as much. I think it would be a gamble to eat up about 9% of the expected payroll with the assumption that a player will be traded. Melvin made the gamble with Vargas and it cost the Brewers significant money.
  17. kramnoj
    I wouldn't give up a young #4 starter for one year of a 36 year old CF. The Yankees might, if they get desperate enough.
  18. kramnoj
    Let's remember that the Yankees withdrew from Johan Santana because they didn't want to give up prospects. I think that the Yankees are interested in Cameron because he would be a free agent and he wouldn't cost the Yankees a pick. I don't think the Yankees would be as interested in Cameron if they had to give up much value to get him.
  19. kramnoj
    Playing time projections should be ignored in ZiPS. That isn't the purpose. The rate stats are the most important stats, and ZiPS has done well compared to other projection systems. I believe that it has recently done better on hitters vs pitchers, but still ok for pitchers.
  20. kramnoj
    http://www.baseballthinkf...ctions_milwaukee_brewers/ is the link to the fresh new projections for the 2009 Brewers. Dan has provided a new format that I like that shows how players projections compare to recent positional performances. Lots of fun stuff to discuss.
  21. kramnoj
    I'm not 100% sure how it works but wouldn't we get a draft pick for Cameron leaving the team as well? Cameron is projected by this guy: http://tigers-thoughts.bl...ected-elias-rankings.html to be a type B, so I think the Brewers would get a sandwich pick if the Yankees (or any team) signs Cameron. That is certainly something to consider.
  22. kramnoj
    His OBP is not above .350 but it is close and we would not have to give up a premium prospect for him You wouldn't have to give up a premium prospect, but you would need to give up a prospect. I'd have to know who the prospect is before making a definitive statement, but I think I would rather save the prospect and pay Cameron the extra $3.75M over what Crisp is guaranteed. I think Crisp could have been had cheaper going into 2008. With Ellsbury declining this past year, I'm not sure the Red Sox are motivated to move Crisp.
  23. kramnoj
    Actually never mind if you call yourself a Green Bay Fan or just a fan of the NFL in general and you cant see how money or market size played a huge factor in the 1980's and pre revenue sharing and now it doesn't play a factor at all- I don't really want to have a discussion with you anyways. Again if you can't see competitve balance between small (San Antonio) and Big (Los Angelos) market clubs then I don't know what to tell you. You seem to have become agressive while being asked to explain something. I don't think anyone is saying that the framework for competetitive balance doesn't exist in the NBA and NFL, and I certainly didn't say that. I'm asking you to support the idea that balance in baseball is a joke compared to those sports. I'm not sure what your goal is what that list. Are you saying that the NFL is better post 1980 than it was before? That's not what the current discussion is. Are you saying that the NFL has more balance post 1980 than MLB does now? I don't see how that list does that. In both sports there are multiple winners from some teams. In both sports small market teams have won championships. What specific point were you trying to make, and how is the NFL so much better in this regard that the balance in MLB is a joke?
  24. kramnoj
    It will be really interesting for me to see if they shift the draft emphasis/approach to one that looks more closely at pitchers and defense/speed. Do you think there has been an emphasis on anything other than "draft the best player available"? Sure, it would be great if we had Tampa's pitching staff, but I bet they would like to have some of the Milwaukee hitters. If lots of teams are focusing on pitching and a good hitter is available for the Brewers to take, I don't think it makes sense for the Brewers to take a lesser pitching prospect to fill a current need. Take the best player and things will sort themselves out later.
  25. kramnoj
    Just because more teams get into the playoffs and occasionally a small market team sneaks in does not mean that competitive balance is fixed. Occasionally a small market team sneaks in? Doesn't a small market team make the playoffs just about every year? I guess it depends what you mean when you say small market. Baseball's competitive balance compared to any other of the big 3 sports is a joke. You've written a fair amount about baseball, but you really haven't compared it signigicantly to football and basketball. I think you should set the parameters for what you think competitive balance means, and then we can compare it over a longer period than one year. I think you would be hard-pressed to actually support the notion that baseball's balance is a "joke".
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