bill hAll Star

Also no thanks on Castro. I understand the idea of taking on some dead $ to offset prospect return but I doubt Miami is motivated to do that at this point.

This appears to be another options-based move as Stearns finds some sort of way to play with a pseudo 40 man roster all year plus Santana has nowhere to go. Prospect seems nice but I don’t like Domingo for Gamel. Probably close to fair.

The PooHoles decision changed everything for them. Once that busted, they've had 2-3 "let's try to squeak into the playoffs with more of overpay" windows with Trout. Every move they've made with Trout I've said, "that's an overpay, but I get it. Trout only has X years left." Every step of the way, they've been burned by either bad luck or injury risk players they've taken on.

I don't see Lowrie getting 3/$40. I see more of 2/$28-2/$25. Maybe an option.

That's all well and good for the Brewers to want to do but the player you sign has to be ok with it. You need to find a player willing to accept a short term deal and the fact that they are just holding a spot until Hiura is ready to replace them, which could likely be all of two months. And you need to have a giant payroll. They may be fine this year, but Lowrie could be making $7 million on next year's payroll and after an injury/under-performance they now have their resources incorrectly allocated. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for it and they may do something similar to the suggestion...but it isn't so easy.

It also interests me because Minor seems to be another guy that could/should go in shorter spurts than being counted on to go 6+ innings. Might be another sign that they are going to blur the starter/reliever line more.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox have no intention of trading Jose Abreu, even after acquiring Yonder Alonso from the Indians on Friday. There had already been rumblings that Abreu may have been available, and Friday's acquisition of Alonso seemed to put even more wood on that fire, but perhaps the two can co-exist in Chicago. Alonso is an extremely skilled defender and likely to be the everyday first baseman, which would force Abreu into a full-time DH role, something that in the past he has claimed he does not want to do. This could just be posturing on the White Sox' part in order to get a better offer for Abreu. Source: Bob NIghtengale on Twitter Dec 14 - 11:00 PM Almost certainly the bolded part. They could trade Abreu for some prospects or also trade him for a couple major leaguers to fill holes if they think they can compete. I believe this is the last year he's signed for. It makes the most sense for them to trade him for something rather than just get the comp pick. Why can't he just play DH and/or be involved with the platoon at 1B?? I think that they're making a play for the big free agents and will at least "try" to compete. They've acquired a bunch of 1-year commitments (or options/arby for the following year). I could see them trying to get Harper/Machado/Keuchel this year and if they strike out, see if they can win a division with only one other good team or beat out tankers for a Wild Card spot. If not, try for the big free agents again next year. They're on year 8 or so of either having a crappy MLB product or tanking/rebuilding. They have essentially no long-term payroll commitments and a few good young players coming up or in the majors (though I think they are a bit underwhelmed by the depth of studs they have). I think they're going to try to get in the mix this year. If they are struggling at the deadline, they will have a lot of movable parts before they try again in 2020.

I loved the Rogers for Broxton/Supak deal. I was one of the few defending the Lind trade. I thought I've been pretty clear about this. I felt we had a window where ownership and the fan base was willing to be bad for a couple years and we had the opportunity to stack our farm system and really set ourselves up for close to a decade. I feel we should've taken advantage of that window. Right now I see a team that's fairly close to hitting its payroll ceiling, it has two outfielders that are in their mid 30s and it doesn't have a good farm system to either get cheap talent from within or use to improve in trades. It's mostly worked out fine but it's frustrating to me because it's not what I would've done with the opportunity that I felt ownership was willing to give. It's almost impossible for a small market to be "set for a decade." If it works out like it did for the Astros (I can't even include the Cubs, their World Series involved buying pitchers) you're going to lose all of your guys in 5 years or pray that you can trade them for the next wave. Cleveland is as close as it gets. And for every Cleveland there are 5 Cincinnati, San Diego, Minnesota, or Chicago White Sox (though they are a relatively large market and may be able to spend big to supplement Eloy, etc. now that they've cleared payroll) that basically just sat through 4-5 years of empty stadiums for not much return. San Diego has a nice farm system but I keep waiting for the actual impact guys to finally do something. I think the Phillies have bounced back nicely but I'm not even sure that they're going to make a long-term dent now that they're back to trying to operate like a large market. Guys like Moniak completely fizzled. I know that your out will be that the Reds or Twins were poorly run over that timeframe, but it's not a lock to come back from tanking is the point. I'd have tanked if given the opportunity Stearns had as you are suggesting. When it was pretty clear he knew what the heck he was doing, I got out of the way and got on the bandwagon.

I understand why you'd feel that way looking at the splits but the GM of the Brewers just stated the exact opposite. "We are excited to add another talented left-handed reliever to our bullpen," said general manager David Stearns said in a statement. "Over his young Major League career, Alex has proven to be one of the most consistent and durable lefty relievers in baseball." Unless I missed a quote that directly pertains to Claudio I don't see any confirmation from Stearns that he's going to be a multi-inning guy.

Also agree with this. I don't think giving up slot money and a pick should be regularly done but let's see what Claudio brings. If he is about what he has been for the initial part of his career, I'll call it a win or at least not a loss.

I'd argue Cain's contract is already a huge win unless he turns into a pumpkin in 2019. I guess you should look at that post and ask yourself if questioning if 1-2 of the WAR of the 18 combined or so WAR combined for a season that was acquired for very little and does not cost much $-wise seems silly or not to you.

Same goes for you following me around in every thread telling me I hated every Stearns move (I haven't.) It's pretty darn close. Between this board and the other one you hated Cain, Yelich, Chacin, Schoop [good job], Moustakas, and probably several other non-moves off the top of my head. The track record isn't great, so maybe temper the hyperbole on how bad these trades are and maybe people won't keep following you around?

Why does it have to be worst case scenario? We found out he was hurt immediately which torpedoed his value and it took him much longer to come back from the injury than it normally does. What if we had spent that 40th pick on Triston McKenzie who went two picks later instead? Would you trade one of the top prospects in baseball for three years of a cost-controlled relief specialist? What if Lewis Brinson approaches 1/20th of Christian Yelich's career value? You hated that trade and we can play these games the other way as well.

I said what that player could potentially get in a trade as well as long as he doesn't tank in the first few years. Go back a few years so the players drafted around that range had a chance to establish themselves. 2015 saw Triston McKenzie drafted 42nd overall. 2014 saw A.J. Reed go in the same spot and as a college bat he moved pretty quickly and got into the top 100 on some lists (this is where the prospect has more value than the reliever). Knebel was the 39th pick in 2013 ironically enough. Mitch Haniger, Joey Gallo and Lance McCullers were all drafted between 38 and 41 in 2012. Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Fulmer and Trevor Story were between 40 and 45 in 2011. Noah Syndergaard was 38th in 2010, Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos were 43 and 44. Or, what if a player expected to go in the top 10 or 15 drops to the Brewers first pick. Since they have that extra money from the competitive balance pick, they can take that money and sign that player that they never thought would get to them. There are a lot of ways that pick could be better used than what we used it on. Yes, I said on average. Noah Syndergaard aggregated with 4 busts is Alex Claudio, in theory. If Tony Sipp is likely to sign a 1 year, $4-5 million deal, then you get $3-4 million more out of Alex Claudio to sign another player as well. This is not a move I'd really be a fan of Stearns making every season. People are allowed to not like trades. Acting as if every move a [very good] GM makes is the arguably one of the dumbest moves in league history (go back and check your receipts) is tiresome.

Look, I'm a fan of building through the draft, the farm, etc. I understand the idea of throwing 5 high draft picks + good prospects up against the wall and 1 may turn into an elite player, 2 may be a good player, etc. I'd bet you that 3 years of above average MLB relief is worth more than the 39th pick of the draft does on average. Not saying that makes the trade right, but I would imagine that Claudio would provide more value than most guys drafted in that range. EDIT: If you look at the supplemental rounds in the 2010-2014 range you do have a lot of very good players but the aggregate probably is about 1 WAR if you factor in 60-70% of the guys are busts or never hit the majors.

You never know if any reliever is going to have a good season. That's the nature of relievers which is why I hate trading for them. Knebel went from one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017 to a pumpkin for most of 2018. Blake Treinen was banished from the Nats in 2017 and was the best reliever in baseball in 2018. Adam Ottavino went from negative fWAR in 2017 to one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018. "Most of 2018." I'm glad you actually watched the part where he nearly carried us to a World Series given that I assumed you'd have given up on the team after they decided not to tank 2018.

We've been selling off prospects for two years and not replacing them with anyone except in the draft where we lose picks due to free agent signings and have low bonus pools but you think he's going to come in and get us a pick? Honest question: Has our farm system taken any sort of dent from what was traded away in the past calendar year? Harrison still has time, Brinson has the talent...but is literally anyone we gave up going to make a sizable dent in the majors other than maybe one that breaks through?

I'm completely fine with this move as I see a LOOGY as necessary on most rosters and cringe when fans complain about a situation like LOOGY Jennings coming in to face Scooter in a key moment. That said, he's basically a cheaper, more controllable version of Jennings. So he is exactly what "people complained about" and probably will continue to complain about even if it is the right move.

Here's something: Claudio faced 67% RH batters over his career and the split has never really changed. Why? I know that he had better numbers against righties in the past, but I wonder if the usage will be a bit better with the Brewers. With how badly the Rangers sucked last year I also wonder how much of that beating he took was Jennings-esque where he was just left in for garbage collection a lot and some really good righties teed off on him.

Again this team is in win-now mode. Claudio provides much more of a sure thing than some rando lefty signed to a minors deal. I agree that the price was seemingly high, but with the issues they’ve had finding an effective LOOGY, it’s hard to blame them. The guys he listed are majors players but may sign for a higher dollar amount or may be less of a sure thing. A 3 year/$8 million deal probably with the ability to non-tender is probably preferable to most of the guys listed. Is it worth a comp pick? That I don't know.

There needs to be some sort of bat signal type of thing when a Brewers acquisition that could potentially have some downside comes up so twirly can spring into action and treat it as if we just traded away Yelich for the rights to Yuni Betancourt if he comes out of retirement (actually, he'd probably like that so that we'd tank).

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but I'd wager that hitting the ball out of the park to LF in Miller Park and LF in Arlington are not much different. Probably easier for someone to hit a HR to RF off of Claudio in Texas by a little bit but probably not a huge deal with righty hitters overall. Fair enough. His value is primarily going to come from getting LH hitters out anyway. I do imagine he'll improve against RH hitters this year compared to last. Last year was his worst year by far against them, heavily babip driven. Don't disagree with any of that.

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but I'd wager that hitting the ball out of the park to LF in Miller Park and LF in Arlington are not much different. Probably easier for someone to hit a HR to RF off of Claudio in Texas by a little bit but probably not a huge deal with righty hitters overall.

His statistical profile is very similar to Dan Jennings. I am totally fine and understand the move as it is nice to have on an MLB roster even though a comp balance pick is a bit much. I can't wait for the entire fanbase to fall in love with him.

How many Cleveland fans lost it when they saw "Bauers involved" and thought Trevor Bauer was being traded? So Seattle is basically getting a comp pick for dumping Santana. That's not a bad move. They've really cleared their payroll but now the real work begins.