That is not some fact, it is your opinion. I am sure you have heard me say this before, but you cannot treat human beings as independent variables. Baseball is not roulette, previous results DO impact future results. Of course you should expect long term behavior ON AVERAGE, but a true strategist can make the call when you should go against the average, because the last time I checked there are no probabilities in baseball that = 1.0. There are times when the average doesn't occur, if you don't try to account for these rare times you will not maximize the number of times you are right.