To be fair, up by 1 early, it isn't as bad a move. I believe that it increases the odds of 1 run but may lower the overall run expectancy for the inning, depending on the batters in question. There was a "Intentiionally Walk Bonds" study done by tangotiger many years ago: http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbonds.html It looks like his assumptions have been lost, however. Have to the imagine the difference between the two batters is larger with Bonds then Braun, though. "There are a few assumptions I've made to make life easier for myself, and that is I assume "average conditions" and "average approach" and "average everything else" Lucroy OPS+ = 97 = average hitter, however from the Padre perspective even though it is early you have to feel a Braun GS making it 8-2 with your offense is as good as a loss so you might be more inclined to take the higher risk/higher reward choice. Of course Bud Black did not consider any of this and just IBB'd Braun because that is what you do with first base open and an MVP up.