topper09er

Kauff was in the federal league, not exactly the same as the NL or AL. He hit .357 during his 2 seasons leading the federal league in hitting but only .287 in the following 5 seasons with the NY Giants.

Angels interested in Shields http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/angels-like-shields-braves-have-some-interest.html If they get him within the next few hours it may be the leverage we need to get Profar from Texas or at least Olt+++

I'm surprised I haven't seen anything about Ramirez to the Yankees since ARod is out. Seems like the perfect chance to dump his salary to a team that needs him and can afford him. Then trade Greinke and sign him as a FA.

The run counts as long as it scores before Braun is put out. If he didn't touch second or didn't get back to first time both are not force outs and the run counts. Thats what I think too except for one scenario: R1, R3 1 out. R1 running on pitch, ball hit to gap, runners assume it will drop but its a amazing catch. When caught R1 is heading to 3rd and R3 is heading back to 3rd to tag up. R1 bypasses 2nd and goes directly back to first and just beats the throw to double him up, the throw would have been the 3rd out if R1 had to retouch 2nd but since he didnt he was safe. After this play at 1st R3 legally scores. Defense appeals R1 not retouching the bases in order and he is out, would the run still count?

Just saw the brewers sac fly in the 10th, Braun did not retouch 2nd base. Im not 100% sure the run would have scored if they would have appealed. Its best that didnt come up since loses 3 straight 6-7 is better than a couple of those and a 5-6.

Wow Johnson is signed for next year so Greinke looks much worse compared to him

Considering the only reason RRR ever pulls a starter is due to pitch counts there is no way he would have pulled Greinke after only 87 pitches. That had to have been ordered from the top indicating a trade is coming. I dont think there is any way Greinke starts again for the Brewers. This was just what Melvin wanted, 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K, and every start he makes for us instead of a new team hurts our position slightly. Colby Lewis is out for the season and has started 16 games with a 130 ERA+ That hurts them a lot, they have the Angels on their heels, may have their last chance with Josh Hamilton and must be very hungry after being so close twice in a row. With the new playoff scenario the race between them and the Angels suddenly is very important. They say Profar is off limits but who knows, they also have a nice 3B prospect in Mike Olt so I hope we get a package involving those guys somehow

I think we got Chuckie Hacks in a trade with the Marlins

I get back from a softball game to see the 10th inning at 9:10?!? This is awesome, I see ZG only at 100 pitches, send him back out there Jack Morris style

Sorry to rehash this but: This sounds nice, but this does not reflect how you post around here. You say that we have some tools to give "some insight" yet you treat these tools like the word of god. Anytime EVER anyone is playing above average some poster may get excited and post about hoping the great play will continue, or someone is playing below average and a poster is concerned the poor play will continue, you come in, with the highest coefficient of smug of anyone on this board, and make some post that comes off as: "Listen you feeble minded peon, you simply do not understand that in theory statistics say everything regresses to the average and that will happen here. Your tiny brain is reacting to your primal emotional instincts and you are not capable of thinking rationally. You are acting like the average person and I am reminding you that I am above average and my theoretical knowledge is ALWAYS right" You do not do this sometimes as suggested by your above post that you have tools that give you some insight, you do all the time suggesting you have the tools to always be right. For example, this post from the Rickie Weeks so far this season thread from May 10th: Preseason ZiPS Projection: .260/.350/.460 Current Line: .164/.302/.302 Updated ZiPS Projection: .245/.342/.441 The updated projection takes into account his bad start to the season. Without having any knowledge of what is causing his bad start (if anything), we can only presume that his updated projection is our best guess for his production for Friday. I can see an argument that projections are based on the average guy and Weeks' start is very un-average. I recall reading a study that showed players in extreme hot and cold streaks showed a SLIGHT persistence effect. Still, you are putting too much emphasis on his most recent production in terms of projecting future production. History shows us that. Current line: .181/.312/.300 Updated ZiPS Projection: .214/.328/.369 You are putting too much emphasis on his Updated ZiPS projection in terms of projecting future production. Reality shows us that.

Our past 10 games we have had 8 leads and 2 ties in the 8th inning or later. Our record in those games in 5-5.

I hope Braun is OK, we could sure use his bat in the bottom of the 9th.

May have hurt himself sliding, just speculation by Rock/BA

Rasmus is batting with Prince at 1B, Hart is really showing why Prince never was more than a 5.0 WAR type guy

So Dillard's outings can be spread out over multiple innings but KRod or Ax no? Mostly referring to earlier this year or last year

Didn't Dave Bush take a no-no pretty deep against the Blue Jays last time? Answer, yes he went 7 innings without allowing a hit and gave up a triple to Lyle Overbay. Entering the 9th we were up 8-1 and won 8-7. Dillard had his hand in some of those runs.

I hope Gomez noticed that his feet were not moving when he made contact with the ball. Very nicely done.

And it seems to be happening to the players who are struggling more than others...hmmm

lol Isn't her 15 minutes of fame about up? Talk about flaunting her stuff and craving attention. I recently saw her new photos she posted on facebook. Borderline porn. As her 15 minutes winds down, she will probably keep cranking up her appropriate levels until she poses nude someplace. Playboy's alltime best seller: Milwaukee edition

And he did a nice job of crushing the first 3-0 Wisconsin avenue fastball but laying off the outside one this AB. Just ground out to the right side here Nyjer, Ill take that vs a lefty Edit: or that, way to pull it

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject. You don't agree? That's your prerogative. I will continue to tout updated ZiPS projections as an objective estimate of future performance and you will continue to exclaim, "These players aren't robots"! Everything will be as it should be. In many areas, such as business or science, statistics are very powerful and have been shown to be very useful. They are why casinos make money and people release political polls and predict particle behaviors, etc. Now look at sports betting, using the same tools the results are totally different. No one, from anyone's uncle's gut the MIT PhD likely employed at the MGM can predict sports at the same level as other things. There is a reason the sports book is hidden in the back of the casino and you have to walk past 10,000 slot machines to get there. Some people refuse to accept this. Its like they ignore that there must be some fundamental difference between these things. We know the statistics work, so what could the problem be? Maybe the assumptions? Maybe everything doesn't just regress to the mean as ZIPs would predict. Again, what does ZIPs really tell you? Its pretty obvious to me, I can look at any player and tell you about what their ZIPs will look like, its basically intuitive. Just look at an average line between the current season and career numbers and round towards the career numbers. I really don't see what the value is in it. How is Weeks doing this year, worse than usual. OK, then from now on he will do better but he has been so bad his final line will still be below his average line. How is Braun doing this year, better than usual. OK, then from now on he will do a little worse but has been so good his final line will be above his average line. That is ZIPs. Its quite fine to reference ZIPs, but to present as some almighty end all be all is ridiculous, especially if you look at the actual past performances of ZIPs and you see it is very useful for the group and basically worthless for the individual, and by that I mean it performs equally as well as any person's gut feeling. Once Weeks starts looking like the player he has been in his career then I would trust the ZIPs line a lot more. But ZIPs already assumes he is that same player performing the same way with as much variation in performance as any other 70 game sample in his career. If you watch him hit you know that is not true. Just today, last AB, he was thrown a AAA hanging curveball that he should have crushed. Instead, infield fly. Obviously every player will miss a meatball, but ZIPs just assumes that miss is the same as any of the other infield flys over Weeks career but he is just having an unlucky time when many of them happened to be bunched together. I think he is not playing at the same level that caused him to accumulate his previous stats right now so I dont trust any stat that uses that data until I see some evidence he has become that player again. ZIPs says Weeks is a die who is just rolling a lot of 1s right now. So it says for this set of 500 rolls the average will be lower than 3.5 since we already have all these 1s, but from now on we expect 1s to occur 1/6 of the time. I am saying Weeks has turned into a die with two 1s and 3,4,5,6. Using this model you would not expect the same results. I came to this conclusion by watching Weeks miss mistake pitches and chase bad pitches more than in the past, something ZIPs does not do since it does, infact, consider the players to be robots.

I guess Gomez and ARam have slightly different 3-0 approaches.

Its seems like Braun has been robbed by every infielder this series, glad Lawrie didnt snag that one.

Well done Weeks, see how strong your arm is when you dont throw sidearm?

4 or 5 more innings like this should do it.