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topper09er

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Everything posted by topper09er

  1. topper09er
    We should not run with Casey up so we can clear the McGehee spot in the lineup for next inning
  2. topper09er
    We should not run with Casey up so we can clear the McGehee spot in the lineup for next inning
  3. topper09er
    Why put the contact play on if Braun is not going to slide, which I am fine with
  4. topper09er
    Why put the contact play on if Braun is not going to slide, which I am fine with
  5. topper09er
    oops thanks
  6. topper09er
    oops thanks
  7. topper09er
    Yeah, starting on the road vs Philly = starting at home vs Arizona?
  8. topper09er
    Yeah, starting on the road vs Philly = starting at home vs Arizona?
  9. topper09er
    Gameday just gave Greinke a nasty factor of 100 for the first pitch curve ball, I dont remember seeing that before
  10. topper09er
    Gameday just gave Greinke a nasty factor of 100 for the first pitch curve ball, I dont remember seeing that before
  11. topper09er
    Well Justin Verlander also allowed a HR to first batter he faced today
  12. topper09er
    Well Justin Verlander also allowed a HR to first batter he faced today
  13. topper09er
    The Rockies-Astros game that just started is game # 200,000 in MLB history
  14. topper09er
    The Rockies-Astros game that just started is game # 200,000 in MLB history
  15. topper09er
    I disagree here, why was it not possible? I don't think it is an obvious common sense thing. You don't think it was possible for him to just take it 1 shot at a time, focus on perfect form/follow through? If I told you that you had to make 3 straight free throws or you would die don't you think you would approach them differently than if they were 3 random free throws in a pick up game? If you think players can will themselves to having a 100% chance to hit a free throw (or have 100% chance of hitting a free throw for any reason), we will have to agree to disagree. I find the very suggestion, silly and all the math is on my side. This conversation has turned into trying to argue against the existence of god. There is no math on your side since you don't know if it possible to have a 100% chance of making 1 free throw, if that is possible the math is on my side. What are the variables involved? How many of them does the player have 100% control of? If the player has 100% control of all variables involved then how do they not have the ability to increase their chances to 100%?
  16. topper09er
    Why not? He was clutch for that game? Maybe there is no such thing as a clutch player just clutch plays. I made this point way back on the first page and here it comes again, just because you cant prove something exists doesn't prove it doesn't exist, yet your stance seems to be since I can't prove to you if someone is clutch or randomly lucky they must be randomly lucky. I get that randomness exists as a property of the universe as much as gravity does, but randomness applies to random things, and if you can control the outcome something coin flips do not apply. If there is a fair coin but I have the "skill" of flipping mostly heads, then I am not getting lucky and Bernoulli p(heads) = 0.5 does not apply because the coin really has a p(heads) > 0.5. And if I outperform the expected number of heads it is not because I got lucky, it is because I am really good at flipping heads. The model used to calculate my expected number of heads was flawed, so it cannot be relied upon. If it was redone using the exact p(heads) I really possessed and I outperformed that then I got lucky, but since there is no way to know my p(heads), or Braun's p(playoff clinching 8th inning 3-run HR) then I think you cannot know how much luck is in there.
  17. topper09er
    First off I agree the triple crown should not = auto MVP, but I think you are undervaluing how impressive it is. Can you list one example of a player in the top 3 triple crown categories and not a top 10 player in the league? The only ones I can think of are the extreme examples of 1995 Dante Bichette, but that is pretty easily explained by Coors (get ready for this WAR haters!) .340 (3rd NL) 40 HR (1st NL) 128 (1st NL) 1.8 WAR And Chuck Klein 1931, again heavily inflated by the Baker Bowl .337 (4th NL) 31 HR (1st NL) 121 RBI (1st NL) 4.5 WAR It seems like these players are overrated by the triple crown because of their park, not necessarily the stats themselves. Infact, the only times I can see that a player led in batting and HR (forget RBIs) in the live ball era are the triple crown winners plus Ted Williams 1941 and Babe Ruth 1924. If you hit a lot of HRs you walk a lot, and if you have a high average and walk a lot, plus hit lots of dingers you would have to be a historically bad defender to not be a top player in the league.
  18. topper09er
    I am fairly certain it will be a 4 man rotation because of RRR's love of veterans. Wolf has "earned" a start and will start game 4. If RRR was the kind of manager who would use a 3 man rotation they Green would be in there for McGehee every night.
  19. topper09er
    This is my main point, that the player has control and not just an insignificant amount. If he went from a .575 shooter (his actual number that year) to a 75% shooter, that increases his odds of going 10-10 by 1400%, pretty big. I would say that is a lot of control, obviously luck and randomness is in there, but the player can control it more than you give them credit for, in my opinion.
  20. topper09er
    I disagree here, why was it not possible? I don't think it is an obvious common sense thing. You don't think it was possible for him to just take it 1 shot at a time, focus on perfect form/follow through? If I told you that you had to make 3 straight free throws or you would die don't you think you would approach them differently than if they were 3 random free throws in a pick up game?
  21. topper09er
    YES! He is human being, not a fair die.
  22. topper09er
    because I believe that it overrates some positions by subjectively assigning them a value. Well I believe that the Earth is flat, but as it turns out that is not correct. The values are not subjective, they may not be based on a nice empirical formula derived from tons of data like linear weights, but they are based on some data. On the other hand, if you are solid at the corner positions, you should be decent in center. These numbers are based on guys who switch positions, so guys who are average in LF/RF are 2.5 runs below average in CF over the season, and guys who are average in CF are 7.5 runs above average in the corners over the season. Not perfect but based on some data. And it is still possible to have a positive WAR on defense from anywhere, good defenders will show a positive value even at the penalized positions (Pujols) and bad defenders will show a negative value at a rewarded position (Jeter) http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/299646/posadjust.png It seems to me that almost every guy that appears vastly overrated by WAR is a centerfielder. The CF boost is 2-3 runs for an entire season in CF, so at most 0.2 - 0.3 WAR which is basically negligible.
  23. topper09er
  24. topper09er
    Tony "scarface" Campana steals 2nd with 1 out
  25. topper09er
    Giants up 1-0 over DBacks, 5th inning Braves won
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