topper09er
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Everything posted by topper09er
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The math is based on runs saved or runs created. Batters faced for pitchers is not necessarily the best measure of impact because as was mentioned more batters/inning is bad. Using innings pitched makes more sense those only counts outs. In 2008 CC pitched 130 innings starting from Brewer team game 90. That means we roughly had (162-90)*9 = 648 defensive innings with CC on the team, and he pitched 20% of them. Each position player only roughly 11% of the PA (obviously more for the 1-2-3 hitters etc). using a very simple approximation, the average ERA in the NL in 2008 was 4.29. An average pitcher with 130 IP would have allowed ~62 earned runs, CC allowed 24. So he saved 38 runs above average. On offense we can use the very simple original runs created formula, RC = TB x (H+BB)/(AB+BB). Yelich in the second half = 182 x (88+25)/(245+25) = 76 runs created total, not above average. That would be .28 RC/PA. In the NL the average RC/PA is .113. So in 273 PA, the league average runs created would be 273*.113= 31. So Yelich has created 76-31 = 45 runs above average. A little more than CC but close.
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2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
topper09er replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They should all untuck their jerseys on the field -
Pitching games make a bigger impact than batting games. Just look at this year, here are the games played by the top WAR leaders 9.7 WAR 33 games Scherzer 9.6 WAR 31 games deGrom 9.4 WAR 32 games Nola 7.8 WAR 32 games Freeland 7.0 WAR 136 games Cain 6.6 WAR 142 games Yelich 6.1 WAR 154 games Baez
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Postseason 25-Man Roster Prediction
topper09er replied to obobo55new's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't think they will keep Nottingham for 1 game. Also no way Jennings is left off, I mean we just started him in our biggest series of the year. I still think Schoop and Perez are totally redundant but looks like they are both here to stay. I think for a 1 game roster they would also keep Thames over Woodruff, we don't need a long man and if somehow we did Burnes would be up first. -
on bb-ref, dWAR (and oWAR) both include the positional adjustment. That is why you can't just add them together for total WAR. If you just want his defensives runs saved vs average look at Rfield. Yelich is at 2. At Fangrpahs the DEF runs above average also includes the positional adjustment, and they use UZR for the runs saved. They have him at a few runs above average fielding and a few runs below average on arm, so again they have him as a league average OF and then he takes a hit for the corner OF positional adj.
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Then Chris Archer made the Cubs pancakes
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Cubs lose, and the Buccos didnt have to use Vazquez tonight. Same number of wins as the Cubs on the morning of September 26
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They dont know how to judge things on a curve, Illinois is too flat
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Warning track power flyout from Baez to end the 8th
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It will also be our first time leading the NL in wins
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hey they walked Cain to get to him
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and Pirates through 7. 6 run lead, 6 more outs needed
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Kris Bryant left the game due to a HBP on the hand...just sayin
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Now bring in Kratz to pitch the 9th
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Fighting for the division and our boy knocks in more than the Cards team!!!!
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Yeah, Clint Hurdle is the modern day Coach Cooper
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Like Knebel, this is 4 appearances in 5 days for him. No way he goes a 2nd inning. Jeffress has hardly pitched lately, this is actually a good spot for him to get a lower stress inning. but 7 pitches? Also aren't we trying to avoid JJ since he is a little banged up. Also the double switch to bring in Soria suggests CC at least want to leave the option open for multiple innings
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slide not terrible there considering that could have been a swipe tag play
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7 pitches, up 5 and we are trying to rest JJ. Gotta send Soria back out
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Yuni makes that play easily
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Didn't Yelich do it just last night? Showed up the ump barking at him right to his face? Could be wrong, been a lot of games lately. Just saying it happens so think the same for our guys. But I agree that last turn did him in, he was given a good leash and he went too far, he knew he was on the line and risked it. You can talk to the ump about where that pitch was etc. You can't make the ump feel like you are calling him out and making him look bad. If you end the conversation by pretending that you now agree with the call you will never get tossed. Either way, I wonder if the crew was pissed about his fake HBP last night, I'm sure they all know he lied about it
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Braun has battled back to get his OPS above average on the year now
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ALL of the players know what will get you tossed, and generally it is "showing up the ump" which means some kind of public shaming. They all know this. They can complain all they want if they don't make it obvious. Turning his head back around was his dagger and he knew it but was an idiot because he was correct and thought he would get a pass because of the playoff implications. Good on the ump for being consistent. Good on Braun, keep piling on and we can use Kratz to close it out
