HiAndTight

Not that Wisconsin shouldnt reach out to Mookie Cooper, but if Rudolph was correct that Davis and Pryor end up coming back, assuming reasonable progression from Dike and Chandler, the WR room should be fine next year. The coaches trusted Bracey and Abbott enough to put them on the field. Predicting which true freshmen see the field is difficult, but Allen has a good size and has been productive in a high level of high school football. I guess Whitted used the transfer market at CSU so I guess they could go there. As far as Stepp/Watson goes, Im skeptical of Stepp's USC stats but Trojan fans seem to believe he will be productive here. I was hoping a Ball like switch for Watson but it didnt happen. I guess there is a reason we were his only major offer. Still disappointed he didnt stick it out as he could help with depth even if he isnt a all conference back. It should be a solid group...for Wisconsin. But if they can add a big-time talent and a guy who is a redshirt Freshmen and a 4-star recruit(#78) that could be huge for the program. You look at the biggest differences between OSU and Wisconsin and the talent on the perimeter is enormous. The NFL is full of OSU DB's and WR's. We don't need to match them, but if we could steal a guy they want to keep there, that's always nice. As for true freshmen who could have an impact, I think Woehler has a chance if he can add a little bit of weight. Allen certainly does...but likely as more of an inbox Safety and if he becomes a LB'er, then he has a very deep depth chart to overcome. But Woehler's speed and physicality...I think that could come in handy right out of the gate.

I realize it's not the NFL...and that their QB does not in fact play defense. Thank you for your insight there... I think the fact that it was a 34-3 game before ND scored a Garbage time TD just last week and in their win, the best player in CFB and arguably the best QB prospect since Manning didn't play in the other game...would lead most people to believe there was a substantial talent gap there. Seems pretty obvious they beat ND both times if Lawrence plays both games. That the true Freshmen that started is the likely starter next year...I fail to see how that's relevant? So basically you're argument is that Lawrence plays defense? Clearly, that's not my argument. I think I made my point and I think the results from every game ND has played under the current system back them up. Taking one regular season upset in which the other team doesn't have their best player(to say nothing of several other starters) doesn't change that.

Agreed, but the Bears/Vikings/Lion games are never easy even with lopsided talent. Those rivalry games are hard because you always get their best game. Right. And the Bears do have quite a bit of talent. They've got several elite players. Hicks, Mack, Smith, Jackson...you put those 4 on any defense and they're capable of giving you problems. NO chance we'll see Snacks in this game, is there? I don't believe he'll have been here long enough to be eligible with the Covid protocols, but outside of Robinson, the only threat on offense is the way Montgomery has been running as of late. But they've played something like the 32nd, 31st, 30th, and 28th worst defenses the past 4 weeks by DVOA. So this SHOULD be a similar game to week one. I'd expect Big Dog(Mercedes Lewis) to get a season-high in snaps this week as well as we get acclimated to live without 'Takatari."

Most of the cap experts are now on board with assuming a $175 million salary cap. Yes, it's possible they're all wrong, but they're usually not. If they're right, your cuts above would give the Packers.... $800,000 in cap space. They're $21 million over a $175 million cap, and your cuts free up $21.8 million. Perhaps to your point, I probably should have used the qualifier of 'realistic'. I.E., it's not realistic to assume they'll cut both of their viable options at RT to rely presumably on a draft pick to start there in a year they want to be competitive. You could also technically cut Amos and Davante Adams and free up cap space, but again, that's not realistic. You'd have to have significant other movement to re-sign or tag Jones and still have room to sign your draft picks, and there's not much left there. Possible? Yes. Realistically possible? Probably not. Also potentially not realistic is another restructure of Rodgers. The Packers have managed to have a major out on his contract after next season, which logically corresponds with the time they presumably would look to move on from Rodgers and shift to Love. Could they push that out further? Sure. Would they, when things are already a bit dicey for them pending determination on the cap in 2022, and with your hand-picked guy likely ready to jump in at QB in that exact window? Possible, but I'm not sure it's realistic to think they want to do that with a 40-year old. This season may have completely changed their though process though, as I would bet he's surpassed even their expectations this season. In the end, we're likely debating semantics. Is it possible that Jones would sign a deal with a $1million base for 2021 with only a $20million signing bonus and thus less guaranteed money than Kamara or Cook? Yes, it's possible. Is it realistic? Probably not. So, if your point is that it shouldn't have been called "not even an option" by the initial poster, you're probably right. But calling it infeasible, or unwise, or simply 'not going to happen because of their cap situation and the way the front office runs the team', that's extremely accurate, IMO. And that doesn't even get into a debate about whether Jones is worth a 2nd contract or not... Now watch them announce 9 restructures and an extension for Jones next week. I don't know if that's the case. That's just the basement the NFL and the NFLPA have agreed upon. That's the worst-case scenario and the only known at this point. There's really no "projecting" the cap this year because they're not using the revenue from this year to come up with the number. So it's just guessing based on the absolute minimum we know it'll be. That said, if they do go with the 175 million dollar cap this next year, it's going to see a massive jump the following year. As in potentially a 100 million dollar jump up to 275. This is why I've always argued that I think the two sides will come together to mitigate the cap hits so we don't see veterans flood the FA market and then get paid 40 cents on the dollar relative to what they'd normally expect. I will get into the debate if the Packers should...and I don't think they should. I don't think they should unless you can sign him to a big discount and that doesn't appear to be the case. If he gets 15-17 million per, I'd let him walk and it wouldn't be a hard decision. But I believe Gute and MLF and the Packers value Jones more than maybe you or I would...and I do think negotiating in the season was telling(Even if they could not agree). Unless they think they're better served using it on King or Linsley, put the transition tag on him. Worst case, he signs it and you have to pay ~8 million for one more season and create more space. Most likely, he tests the market, and if he signs a Melvin Gordon like deal(really just a cheaper than expected short term deal) you have the option to match. But it's not just semantics. I do believe the Packers are still interested in signing Jones and I think Jones would be happy to return here. As it stands, we likely won't know for 3 months what the Caps even going to be, so it's that much more difficult to know. I believe this is a media-driven narrative. People looked at Clarks' contract, they looked at Rodgers and they said, "that's probably when they'll cut him." I doubt it would have even entered anyone's thought if they hadn't signed Love and I really really hope the Packers are not still 'planning' on moving on from Rodgers after next year because they put a plan in place. Things change. Rodgers has been nearly flawless. Also, that was also before this year and he's gone out and had arguably the greatest year in Packers history for a QB and it'd be just ONE year following said MVP season. Not to mention, the "out" 20 million in dead cap space. I think it was much more likely that the Packers were looking at their contracts and thought the year the New TV deal kicks in, we'll have more room to operate and be able to absorb a larger cap hit, not a grand plan to move on from the best player in their history while he's still playing at his best.

The thought of having Wagner lined up across from Mack scares the living daylights out of me, to be honest. He's been pretty solid for the most part this year, but has been susceptible to speed rushers, and that is Mack's whole game. Turner handles those type of rushers more effectively. Also, Jenkins is the team's most talented lineman, so it would make sense to put him in the best spot to use that talent, at either LT or RT to go against Mack. It's an absolutely brutal injury. Not only do you obviously have to replace him, but it puts more strain on everyone along the OL. Now instead of sliding your protections to the right to help Wagner/Turner at RT, you can't do that. If we could sign Veldheer, that would great. He played outstanding for us last year. But each team can protect 4 guys on their PS each week. My guess would be that Veldheer would be among those and will likely be on the active roster since the Colts just lost their start LT to a season-ending injury as well. At this point, I'd go with Jenkins at LT. As you said, he's the most talented, he's already shown he can play on the edge. I don't understand why he's not a tackle to begin with. I guess it'd likely be his feet, but that's not something I can see from the game on the TV. This really sucks. It sucks for Bahk, it sucks the team. This was as confident as I'd been in a Packers team in a long time. Hopefully, they can overcome this. With Dillon's little coming out party vs the Titans, if the Packers can get through Chicago and get a by, they'll have 3 healthy backs and hopefully, that'll take a lot of pressure off whoever replaces Bahk and the OL as a whole.

I haven't seen anyone make that argument. I've seen people say he catches the ball well...for a big guy. That would be praising him, not denigrating him as you're taking it. Not many big backs are used much in the passing game. Backs like Brandon Jacobs, Bettis, Henry...whoever. The qualifier "for a big guy," is simple. He obviously hasn't shown he can catch the ball like a Kamara, Cook, Jones, C-Mac. So if you said he caught the ball well as a RB, what evidence is there for that? That he caught a couple of passes that were out in front of him? A screen that was very low? If he shows in the future he can come out of the backfield and run a wheel route and make a contested catch in coverage on a ball over his head, then that'll change our opinion. However, as you pointed out, he didn't get many catches at BC(mostly because he was their main offense) and he's got 1 catch this year(and 2 more wiped out). So I don't know how else you'd describe his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield at this point in his career.

Absolutely, if the Packers really want to extend Jones it is attainable, especially since year 1 is always the lowest cap number in a long term contract. Certainly more feasible than giving Jones the franchise tax as has been suggested. With that said, I do think they move on. Also agree that it is a difficult subject to debate and lay out a plan because nobody does know what the cap will be in 2021. Any expert saying with certainty that it will be $175 is blowing smoke. Well...this got me suspended, [sarcasm]so be careful agreeing[/sarcasm]! They could also use the transition tag. I have doubts about how strong the market will be for him or if another team is willing to pay him like the Saints and Vikings paid their respective studs. That gives the Packers the ability to match if he signs a below-market deal. The problem there is a team could make the first year a bigger hit. But without actually knowing what the cap's going to be, we're all just guessing. The only thing the experts have projected is that the cap will be at the lowest 175, the floor they agreed upon before the season. Personally, I think it'd probably be best to let Jones walk if he does get a deal north of 12 per. Even if they do compromise on the cap, they've still got a lot of RFA's that are going to be important like Tonyan, Sullivan, Lazard to go with the bigger name FA's like King and Linsley.

It's hard to know what to think yet. This guy spurned us multiple times. What was the reasoning? Just that Seattle was a better fit at the time, or he has no interest in being here? If its the former and he's excited to be a part of trying to win a championship, welcome to Green Bay. If it's the latter, I don't want him. He seems to be indicating via Twitter that he wanted to go to Green Bay, so he's cool with the waiver claim. The Seattle move really made no sense to me. They didn't need him. They gave up a somewhat promising younger player in Rush(who we ended up with via waivers) to get him. He didn't help them out with their pass rush at all. I welcome him in if he can help, but we seem to be in a pretty good place right now either way.

That 175 million dollar floor wasn't built into the CBA before the NFL owners and NFLPA put it in before this season after they knew about Covid to give teams at least a worst-case scenario on where the cap would be. Otherwise even the big spenders like the Bengals were going to be in cap hell next year. I think if the league tried to implement a 150 million dollar salary cap after signing a 100 billion dollar TV deal, you'd have a lockout and a pretty justifiable one. I'd be shocked if the cap isn't closer to 240 by 2022 than 140.

Yeah, this is a totally ridiculous debate to engage in before we even have a clue what the cap is going to look like...which we don't right now, but even we assumed it was going to drop, even an NFL neophyte understands that there are a million and one ways to manipulate the cap, so obviously you do as well. You could sign Jones for a 5 year 75 million dollar deal and his cap hit could be less than 5 million for next year. They could create cap space a dozen different ways. Or they could just tag him. Again, the fact that they were negotiating with him pretty much all season tells you it's OBVIOUSLY feasible even with all the unknowns. But you want me to find a way to create cap space for 2021? Give Rodgers more guaranteed money and extend his contract for 2 or 3 more years. There...that could be 10+ million in cap room. Cut Wagner, Kirksey, Turner, Smith....lots of cap room. You want to argue it's not possible, again, I don't understand why because you know it's just plainly not true. You want to argue it's a bad idea, I'd probably agree with you depending on what he's actually asking for. Just as I stated before the season started that signing him was likely not worth it and after Cook and Kamara, two similar backs signed, I reiterated the same thing. Again, 100 BILLION dollar TV deal being negotiated right now. The owners want more games to facilitate that deal. That'll require what two groups to come and meet? You think they juuuuust might have something to say about having a significant number of their veterans take a massive pay cut this season because of a fluke pandemic, or do you think they'll just be quiet and accept a massive reduction to the cap while the league signs the most lucrative TV contract ever signed by any entity?

You mean that CB from Bethune Cookman who was one of the worst picks of the 2006 NFL draft! Losing Collins and Finley were two huge blows, not to mention Sam Shields who was a key player as an UDFA on the Super Bowl team(despite only playing CB for one season) who made a few huge picks during that SB run. Nobody was missed more than Collins though. A big safety with elite athleticism(4.4 40, 6.6 3 Cone)...and he could hit. Last three years he had 22 turnovers, 18 picks and 5 TD's. And he could play in the box and cover the slot. As great as he was, he might have been even more suited for the current NFL. Vernon Scott, the latest Safety to don the #36 has been coming on pretty strong the last few weeks. Coming downhill and tackling exceptionally well.

I get ya, you want to see if he can keep it up. But that 30 yard TD run, the way he made that little jump cut...that was impressive. He made that look easy and I don't think that's a run many big backs make. He made that look clean. But who are we comparing him to? If he has quick feet just like Eddie Lacy, he's going to have a very successful career with the Packers so long as he doesn't let the Chinese food get out of control. The Bears game will be another opportunity to see where he is. I'm looking at how he runs...his patience more than his feet because I thought he answered some of those questions, but Akeem Hicks back(out when we played the Bears last time) arguably their 2nd best defender, Mack, Jackson, and then the great speed at the MLB'er position. We'll see with both Jones and Williams being a little banged up if Dillon gets 10-15 carriers again. I know it's a very different scenario, but it'd be nice if he could give us a James Starks like boost at the end of the season. Obviously, the running game has been productive this year, but Dillon gives you someone who can close out games and who can get 2-3 yards when Jones may be stopped for a loss.

This is actually a good question. I loved the game plan last night...but he's been generally pretty bad. We have a lot of talent on defense and we haven't played well. But I think it's been 3 weeks now and you can notice a significant difference in two areas, the tackling. The secondary especially has been VERY good coming up and tackling. So much better than earlier in the year(the game Kamara made a fool of us, in particular, was bad). The other area has been the DL. They've done so much better at staying in their lanes, occupying the blockers, and giving the backers and safeties free shots. The way the defense has turned it around has me actually has this team looking like a legit SB team. That and the running game.

From a salary cap standpoint, you may be incorrect. C'mon...we both know this isn't true.

Are you sure you don't have that backward? Jones was a more established receiver and thought of as a 3rd down back...and used much more in the passing game than Williams. He had 30 receptions, 9 in 2 games as a redshirt Jr and then 28 as Sr. Williams was more of a check-down guy and had 15 catches his final two years at BYU(though he was used more in that role early on). I remember the main question about Jones was if he could be an every-down back or if he was more of a 3rd down back. I don't recall any questions about his receiving ability. Williams got more run as a rookie, especially as a 3rd down back, due to his receiving prowess, along with his blitz pickup ability. He was definitely considered the better receiver of the two after their rookie season. Jones has improved greatly in that department, while Williams has always been a fine receiver. I think we're talking about slightly different things. I was talking about their profiles coming out of college, not after a year in the NFL. Williams was definitely very solid(especially for a young player) right out of the gate picking up the blitz...and he's gotten even better and that got him on the field. Jones was always productive, but McCarthy didn't seem to stick with him long. I don't recall there being questions about Jones ability to catch the ball at that point, but I'll take your word for it. But the scouting reports I can find and remember talk about Williams being a two-down back and Jones being a 3rd down back type. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706649-jamaal-williams-nfl-draft-2017-scouting-report-for-green-bay-packers-pick https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/11/15/matt-waldmans-rsp-nfl-draft-scouting-report-rb-aaron-jones-packers/

If signing Jones wasn't an option, the Packers likely wouldn't have spent most of the season negotiating with him. I'm not sure that's a complete picture. As recently as a month ago, reports were that the Packers intended to let him walk. Around the time he changed agents a couple of weeks ago, there were report that the two sides had discussions, but that talks were stalled. For all we know, the discussions were, 'hey, would you re-sign a 2-year, back-loaded deal' and Jones said no way. It's more of a complete picture than saying "signing Jones isn't even an option."

Are you sure you don't have that backward? Jones was a more established receiver and thought of as a 3rd down back...and used much more in the passing game than Williams. He had 30 receptions, 9 in 2 games as a redshirt Jr and then 28 as Sr. Williams was more of a check-down guy and had 15 catches his final two years at BYU(though he was used more in that role early on). I remember the main question about Jones was if he could be an every-down back or if he was more of a 3rd down back. I don't recall any questions about his receiving ability.

Because he has a small catch radius and he's never shown the ability to catch balls that are out in front of him and most big guys...as you noted with Henry, aren't good at catching the ball out of the backfield. Guys like Jones or Kamara can come out of the backfield and catch a ball over their shoulder. I've seen nothing that suggests Dillon can do that and the fact that he's got ~20 catches through College and the NFL is telling. Aaron Jones was considered a very good receiver coming out of college, and I don't consider Williams to be a very good pass catcher either. Probably closer to average. With both Williams and Dillon, you have to put the ball right on them. You can line Jones up in the slot or on the outside and have him run a slant and that's something I really doubt Dillion will ever add to his game. And if he does...great. Then he'll lose the "for a big guy" designation.

If signing Jones wasn't an option, the Packers likely wouldn't have spent most of the season negotiating with him.

I agree. There's too much both sides want for them to. The NFLPA certainly doesn't want vets getting cut because of a crazy fluke cap situation the year the NFL signs a 100 Billion dollar TV deal. The NFL likely wants 18 games... Neither side wants to see chaos as the Cap goes from 175 back up to 245 just because they had a CBA that says that's how it works.

McGinn does a good job of getting actual experts talking, but he has the worst takes I've seen from a GB beat reporter...probably ever(I realize that's not what he is any longer with his own site, but he's still bad). The guy was getting the first significant action of his NFL career. He exceeded all expectations. He's shown plenty of ability to "cut and make people miss," both in College and last night, but the larger point, I'd expect him to get better with more carries. There were a couple of times he missed the whole. Where he wasn't patient enough. The time he absolutely lit up St. Brown on the edge. But again... the first real action of his NFL career and he was awesome. It usually takes backs a little bit to get a good feel for the game and you started to see a little more patience as the game went on along with the power running. By the way, anyone see what he did to the Titans Dickerson on that last carry? I've literally never seen a DL rocked as hard as that when he's in there expecting the run. There are really no negatives to take from Dillon last night.

I don’t know, Padres farm system is very good. Maybe they could pull it off too. They seem to be all in Or how about Bauer. If they're going to go all-in...go all in and get Bauer. You don't give away ALL your prospects and you add one of the most dominant pitchers from last year. Clearly, they're invested in beating the Dodgers. They're absolutely loaded. I don't think they need Bauer, but there are rumors they're still interested. I haven't paid that much attention to the Hot Stove, or Trevor Bauer, but is he still going with the year to year concept? If so, seems like SD offering 30-35 is a no-brainer. If he wants a normal contract...I'd probably use that to retain all the young talent.

Final predictions? I'm gonna go with 46 and 47...just missing out. But it'd be a damn nice time for him to replicate his 2013 first-half performance and get to 50 vs the Bears(securing both the #1 seed, the Bye, and the MVP).

Right. He showed decent hands tonight. That catch on the low throw showed he had nice hands...for a big guy. It'd be incredible if they could get a full season with Jones and Dillon. I don't know how feasible that is though. Do they go the route of Nola and just kick the can down the road, do they put one of the tags on him and let him test the market(the transition tag would allow for that). My guess is Jones is gonna test the market at this point unless they give him a Kamara like a deal...and I really doubt that's gonna happen. Not only due to the uncertainty of the cap next year but just because those deals are so hit or miss. But the fact that they spent the better part of the season negotiating with him at the very least indicates they want him back pretty badly.

That's obviously true even in normal offenses, but in this offense, where your core play is that outside zone and you run maybe 50-60 pct of your offense of that...including play-action, a lot of screens and wheel routes designed to get the RB involved, I think it's even more important in the Packers offense. Obviously, you can't blame the Packers for taking Dillon, but it's one of the reasons I really thought Gibson could be a great fit in this system. The Packers are kinda getting to a place with their roster that they can really take some swings in this next draft(though I guess that's pretty much the definition of the Love pick). With the extra picks and so few holes...plus the potential that the roster expansion stays in place AND when you consider so many guys opted out this year, it's going to be a very interesting off-season and a very important one for the scouting dept. I think with MLF's offense, they may place a similar emphasis on RB as they did on WR'er in McCarthy's.