Big Reed

I noticed there has been a lot of talk about all of the top level draft picks the brewers will have this year. 7 picks in the top 100. I also noticed the brewers did very well in signing their top 20 draft picks from last year and in the previous 2 years.. it's a given first and second round picks command large signing bonuses. it's also a given the brewers don't have unlimited funds. I noticed this hasn't been discussed very much, but could money be a factor in whom the brewers draft? This begs three questions: 1. How much can the brewers expect to pay out in total signing bonuses if they sign all of their draft picks this year? 2. Will the fact that the brewers have so many top picks have an effect on whom they draft with those picks? Will the brewers shy away from certain prospects who would command a high signing bonus because they only have a certain amount of money alloted to spend? or will they go after 1 or 2 expensive players and 5 players who do not command as much? I see a high probability that the brewers might go after a couple of lesser quality prospects knowing their bonus demands would be lower. 7 picks in the top 100 is a lot of money to set aside for signing bonuses. Would the brewers go after the 7 best players with those 7 picks? or go after the greatest number they can afford to sign? 3. What's the probability that the brewers will not sign all of their top 7 picks? or will this have any affect on the brewers not signing their round 3-10 picks? At first, i thought acquiring rental free agent players and then allowing them to leave and acquiring draft picks for them was a great idea. However, if the brewers are not able to sign all of the players they draft, or if they are not able to financially draft the best players available for all those picks, then this strategy needs to be revisited. I would believe the brewers could afford to spend $10 million to sign all of their draft picks. but they might not want to invest that much money. I would hate to use first round supplemental picks to draft 4th and 5th round caliber players just because we couldn't afford to pay the signing bonus requirements for all of our top level picks. While I' m sure Melvin will publically say we have plenty of money to sign all of our picks, I have to believe this concern is going through his mind.

from the begining of this thread , i had big time doubts that the indians would allow CC to leave without giving him a very nice extension offer. the Indians do have some cash stored away. I have to believe the indians would not be willing to trade Sabathia away. however, there are other quality starters out there, and I think the prospects named above could probably be sufficient to be used in obtaining one of those other quality pitchers. With reference to Rogers, I would think by the trade deadline he would have enough starts under his belt to prove he is either back to his former level and worthy of being traded, or that he has gone the route of Gold and becomes another first round failed choice. I guess the same case could be made for Jones. At what point do you leave a guy like Jones unprotected? one of the fortunate/unfortunate parts of the upcoming draft is that the brewers can use it to draft a bunch of pitching prospects. What hasn't been talked about much is that all those extra first and second round picks are going to want bonuses, so this draft could be a real expensive one or several of those top picks could go unsigned. This would defeat the entire purpose of being able to obtain those top picks.

perhaps he'll get some spring training at bats, and the yankees will trade him it sounds as if nobody really wanted him except us brewer fans , and the yankees are giving him a chance to showcase himself. I suspec t if some team makes him a major league offer out of spring training, the Yankees will allow him to leave.

any news on that former brewers pitcher Julio Machado who was arrested for shooting somebody in his home country in Central america? Was he found innocent? Did he ever go to tiral? did he buy his way out? IS he still in jail?

I am of the belief Ensberg will be nothing more tha n a highly paid utiliy player for the Yankees. they probably paid him more to sit on the bench than other teams were going to pay him to actually play. I have to believe he signed for a chance at a world series ring, and that his career as a regular player is basically over. As many people pointed out in the other ensberg threads, there must be somethig seriously wrong wit h him for so many other GMs to have passed on him twice in one year - once through waivers, and again by not wanting to sign hi m as a free agent. perhaps he can still hit but can no longer cover third base. his signing with the Yankees looks like it was made for two reasons: first to gain some of the sports page away from the mets trading for Santana. second - to serve as an insurance policy against possible injury to Jeter or AROD. I am almost led to believe Hank Seinbrenner told Cashman to sign somebody today and he didn't care who he signed just to keep the mets from getting all the press. So Cashman went down the list of free agents and found one that would sign today. i guess barry Bonds was on the phone at the time or else he could now be the guy wearing pin stripes.

I think a thing to remember is that the brewers have all those high level draft picks to replace any we trade away. And if we did make a trade for Sabathia or any other quality pitcher, we will have another 4 high draft picks next year as both Sabathia 0r whomever and Sheets both file for free agency. the 7 that we draft this yea r could probably be better tha n wha t we give away as could the 4 next year. This is really how the rich stay rich and how oakland stay so good for so long. forget the moneyball book. The key to success is to trade for a quality rental player and then allow him to walk at the end of the year to acquire additional draft picks. if you look at the Braves, you will notice they have had their fair share of additional supplemental first round picks. Saltimachia was one of those supplemental first round picks. I have to believe once brewer fans see who the brewers pick with the picks they received for losing Linebrink to free agency, they will be pleasantly pleased with that trade and may look forward to the brewers making more trades for rental players. I highly doubt that cleveland will allow CC Sabathia to leave or would trade him away. but i'm quite sure there will be several other quality pitchers available both Garland and Vazquez were available last year.

tying this thread to one of several others that were proposing trading a couple of our AA or High A prospects, I am led to wonder. if the Brewers did use their first round pick to draft a college closer or starting pitcher, and he signed early, at what level would it be safe to assume he starts at? high A or AA? I was just thinking if the brewers did trade away Jeffress or Rogers as part of a trade, they might be able to draft his replacement who would start pitching at the same minor league level as the prospect who was traded. Would finishing the year at AA be too optimistic for drafting a college closer?

very nice stats. But i have to agree with AL. unless the brewers pull off several more trades involving pitchers, I don't see where he would fit without waiving one of our existing pitchers. he is a guy to remember. I have a feeling pitt will be more than willing to give away players at the deadline. I kind of wanted Guardado, but he signed with texas.

since Santana is viewed as a much better pitcher than Sheets, I think if I was the brewers I would try to keep Sheets for the entire year rather than trying to trade him for prospects. if Sheets does leave via free agency, I would believe the brewers would be able to get better prospects from their compensation picks than they would receive as part of any trade. After seeing what the twins settled for, I would have to believe the offers for Sheets would be nowhere close to what the twins received.

I think every series is important. I also believe the first 82 games are more important than the last 82 games. I also believe winning early has a lot of consequences. my reasoning is as follows: if the brewers start out fast, attendance will be big creating extra dollars that could be spent on veteran acquisitions down the stretch. Let's face it, attendance will be huge July - September no matter what.. if the brewers start out fast, Attendance may also be huge in May-June. If the brewers have a nice record after the first 82 games, management will have additional cash and be more likely to make trades to add to the team rather than to make trades to correct problems. if the team gets out to a fast start, we will focus a lot more on our major league team than our minor leageu prospects. If the team gets out to a fast start, we will have more all star selections which actually does get noticed by players and media and will generate more respect for the team, its management and the city of Milwaukee. Free agents are now starting to think of the brewers as a quality run team and also a winning team. if the team gets out to a fast start, we can afford to weather the storm of future injuries. Let's face it. We're the brewers. We are going to have injuries. it's better to win as many games when healthy than to hope we can win them after we suffer those key player injuries. The brewers don't have a gallardo or braun waiting in the wings this year to call up as an injury replacement. and last but not least, if you say the first series doesn't matter much, then you'll say the second series doesn't matter much either, and then the next one after that as well. and pretty soon the brewers will be 6-12. if you believe all of a sudden the brewers will start winning 25 games in a row after Cameron returns, you are naive. We need to win 60% of the games while he is gone to have a chance at winning the division. the Cubs are a tough opponent, but the brewers will have a lot of tough opponents. For some reason, the Pirates are a tougher team for the brewers to beat than the cubs. There is no reason why the pirates should have as many victories against the brewers as they have had the past 5 years. if the brewers win 2 or even 3 games against the Cubs, the season will not be over and we will not be crowned champs. But if we lose 2 or 3 games to the cubs, we will have started digging a hole which will be hard to climb out of. Game 1 is just as important as game 162.

I like when he sings and plays his guitar with his rock group.

luke van, have yo u ever noticed a tea m - other tha n the brewers that has it's ace pitcher on the mound and they are cruising, 4-1, how quickly his team plays to get the game over? if beckett is on the mound, you don't see big poppy or manny trying to hit 3 more homers and make it a 10-1 game. They just bat quietly, and they win 4-1. The big problem with the brewers last year was that a 4-1 lead was never safe, so the brewers would hit homers to catch up. That's why i say with an improved defense and pitching, you will see more wins, and less of players swinging for the fences. they won't need to. How many home games did the brewers have 9th inning at bats last year that also included a homer? I'm going to predict the brewers bat a lot less in the 9th inning at home this year. i jus t don't believe guys like prince, hart, hardy and braun are going to go up to the plate this year with the mentality that they have to hit the ball out of the park to win. i just believe we are going to see a lot less runs scored and a lot fewer 8-7 victories.

I'd rather add Cirillo. Cirillo would not pose a threat to Hall's ego. Cirillo can play 1st. 2nd and 3rd. he's a nice guy to have around. On the same note, I'd rather have Loretta. Houston can't be asking for much for loretta.

I doubt Braun will come close to duplicating his 2007 numbers, but a .290 avg with 25 homers and 90 RBI will be nothing to be disapointed about. I think the bigest disapointment will be Hardy. He is not going to make the all star team ahead of Rollins this year. with everybody else flexing their muscles, hardy will just be satisfied with getting on base, so his power numbers will drop drastically. His bunts, walks and sacrifice flies will improve. but nobody cares about that type of stuff. hardy will emerge with the numbers he should have generated last year and people will feel he's a huge disapointment. I'm thinking hardy will go .275 with 13 homers and 55 RBI. those were the type of numbers I expected from him last year. I also doubt cameron will hit more than 20 homers. Will that make him a huge disapointment? With an improved defense and pitching, i doubt the brewers will come close to hitting as many homers as they did last year. they won't need as many homers to win games.

I didn't think prince's father was really fat. but the facts are as he got older, and became a star, he put on a lot more weight. And his career was cut short. I fear prince's career will also be cut short. I think he still has at least 10 great years left, but I doubt he plays after the age of 35.

I believe Prince is a better hitter than Howard. but I also believe because prince is a more disciplined hitter, howard will swing for the fences more and end up with more home runs. I know prince is using his father as motivation. he wants to be better than his dad. but what happens if they reconcile? or what happens once Prince proves he's better than his dad? what will be his motivation then? Like many, I fear that Prince's weight may turn into a problem and shorten his career just like it did his dad. I'm not going to call prince fat. but i fear after a couple of MVP's and 7 more great seasons, prince might put on a few extra pounds by age 32 , and his motivation to stay on a strick diet and exercise program at that age might not be what it is today. With that said, I think howard will have the longer career, but not better one. I've often compared Prince to Frank Thomas. Their hitting ability is about the same, and their fielding ability is about the same. Comparing prince to Big Poppy is a good comparison as well.

there was a small blurb two days ago about a buffalo bill being suspended for next season because it was either his third or fourth positive test. but like Ricky Williams, he can always apeal the suspension and come back and play early. When the entire Carolina panthers' defensive line tested positive after their super bowl, nobody cared at all. The year suspension was the first time i had heard the NFL impose such a lengthy suspension for drug /supplement use. then again, Publicity wise, the blurb went so fast as almost an afterthought, i didn't have the opportunity to catch his name and tommorow it will be forgotten. I am proud of the testing now being accomplished in the NFL and MLB, but I believe the penalties should be a lot stiffer. I have to believe if the athlete thought his penalty might jeopardize his career, he might think twice.

I was just wondering if pro sports made the penalties for drug use as stiff as the track and field and olympic communities , would athletes think twice before using supplements? Rodney Harrison is playing in the Super bowl the same year he was suspended for 4 games. Merriman made the pro bowl the year he was suspended . Whereas, Gatlin was suspended for 4 years essentually ending his career. the same with Johnson and Marion Jones. What if baseball and football players were given 4 year suspensions rather than just 4 game and 25 game suspensions? if they knew their careers be on the line, or would come to an end, would they be less motivated to take the juice? I think MLB has a great testing and treatment program. however, I believe the penalties for first time and continued use are very light.

i think the other two players you mentioned will have a direct correlation to what prince does and asks for. With Boras as his agent, prince will never ask for less money that what Howard receives . if howard asks for and receives $10 million for 2008, Boras will be asking for at least that amount for prince for 2009. if howard receives a long term contract, Boras will be asking for similar numbers for prince. prince might be very happy playing for the brewers in Milwaukee. I've been to LA, Boston and New York. I'm sure Prince would be very happy in those towns as well. I think the driving factor for prince is not what prince wants, but rather what boras will be able to bring to prince. If my name was prince fielder, and my agent informed me boston would provide me twice as much as milwaukee would, I would be saying it's been fun, but it's time to move on. That's unfortunately the business of the game. That's the way it is in the real world as well. if a fan gets offered a job by a different company that pays twice as much, that fan is going to inform his current employer, he liked working for him, but he just received an offer he can't refuse.

I'm not too worried yet. No, I'm not really thrilled with any of the brewers' bench players. the brewers offered a contract to Iguchi. i doubt it was with the intention that he would start. I have to believe they will offer a similar contract to some other major league player to be a super ulity player. While I don't want him back, graffy is still available as is Marcus Giles. Ensberg and McPhearson are still looking for part time jobs. Branyon anyone? Lofton and Mench and Cameron are looking for work. Lofton would be a great 4th outfielder. Sammy Sosa is looking around. Sean casey is out of a job. he has a nice glove. Bonds is out there. I would start worrying about our bench in February.

I like Matzui. the biggest stat i like about him is games played. he had a streak of playing 162 games for 3 years until 2006. He would be awesome hitting in Miller Park.

I could say he's a winner. but at 38, he's kind of lost that winning edge. I was kind of surprised he's actually 38. Edmunds isn't getting any younger either. There was some talk out of St louis last year that this could be Edmonds last season. if this was a trade proposal thread , I'd suggest the brewers jump on this and offer gwynn or gross to the cards for franklin or Flores and/or expand it to throw in capuano for Rolen. I think Taguchi would make a nice veteran presence for a team looking for a 4th Outfielder. As for the brewers, I can't see him being better than Gross, Gwynn or Mench. I'd prefer Nady as a 4th outfielder over Taguchi. Taguchi could be like Franco and play for a few more years as a pinch hitter and spare outfielder. I think he's worth keeping an eye on and in contact with pending the brewers trading Gwynn or Gross. In other words, i think he'd be a great 4th outfielder, but the brewers already have several outfielders who could fill that role. What the brewers really need is to add somebody to the outfield who could give them 500-550 atbats. His release does make the cardinals a lot weeker in the outfield , unless they have a player already targeted as a replacement.

it's a nice looking stadium. I used to live in Tampa and moved away in 2000. The trop was an Ok domed stadium and even had a couple of advanced laptop internet features in its seats behind home plate. That's where the fabulous Sports babe and Dick Vitale would sit. Dick Vitale is a huge Rays fan. I recall one year it was great as a host for the NCAA basketball tournament. Some of the discussion in 2000 was about moving the stadium to Tampa just North of Raymond James Football Stadium. There actually was enough space, but I have to believe since the yankees' Spring training complex is accross the street, that George Stienbrenner probably used his influence to insure that the D Rays did not move next door. It was also said at that time (2000) that no lease was permanent. Any lease, no matter how long it is written for can be broken if both parties are in agreement. one of the attendance problems for the Trop was that it was built in St Pete and not Tampa. The team is called the Tampa Bay Rays with expectations that people from Tampa would want to go accross the bay to watch a baseball game. I'm sad to say that many times it's faster to go to Orlando from Tampa than it is to cross over the bay bridges to St Pete. I lived in Valrico and taught at St pete Junior college. It would take me 45-60 minutes to travel one way and that was not in rush hour traffic. The population of St pete is a retirement community. the tourists that come to the beaches of Clearwater would rather spend their time on the beaches rather than attending a game. I hate to say it , but the yankees' spring training games in Tampa would draw more people than the average Rays game. I hope all goes well. I can fully understand why they would want to downsize the capacity of the stadium. I think 35,000 is a good figure to aim for. I am kind of surprised they didn't try to relocate to the northern Tampa area.

I'd like to know how many of the other Rosenthall rumors have come to fruition . I've heard and read a lot of sportscasters speculating on what a team might do and what might be good for that team. most of the trades that have happened were ones nobody talked about at all. The Young trade and Milledge trade were definitely under the rumor radar. I could see the brewers acquiring rolen knowing they have Counsell to back him up. I highly doubt hal l would be asked t o fill in for Rolen. The Cardinals definitely are looking for starting pitching, so acquiring Cappy makes sense. The cards have a new GM and new GMs always like to make big moves their first year. Edmunds is getting old, and the cards were looking for a future starting CF. their farm system is rather bad. Gwynn could fill their void at center, and mench is a productive bat. I would have no problem trading cappy, gwynn and mench for Rolen. I'd be extremely happy if they threw in flores or franklin. I like franklin a lot. There are more productive third basemen out there. but for this package of players, the brewers would acquire a quality third baseman and not have to give up anybody from their future core of players. Cappy, mench and gwynn don't really have a future for the brewers and can easily be replaced.

toolivebrew : that was a most enlightening web site. I saw his projections for Braun. I think he may be just a tad optimistic. I trust bill james' predictions a lot more than the casual fan. Casual fans usually have too much hope injected into their forecasts. James did predict Andrew jones would bounce back to hit .253 next year. That's believable. Does that mean Jones is worth a 6 year deal at $15 million a year? NO! he's not. His projections on Crawford and Willits were also believable. he projected Crawford to hit .299 with a couple of walks and Willits to hit .290. those numbers also seem to be in line with their career numbers. In my ideal line-up, i would still love to have a hitter to bat lead-off that can get on base and that doesn't worry about hitting home runs. if the guy could get onbase at a .380+ OBP , steal 40 bases and score 100 runs , I could care less what his slugging % or OPS are. of the current brewers, the ones closest to that are weeks and gwynn. Unfortunately, I don't see Gwynn as an everyday player, and I don't see Weeks as a typical lead-off hitter despite his good OBP. I also don't believe Soriano should bat lead-off.