Gopher74

For a very long time I never thought I'd see something to this effect...and agree with it. Whoever you want to give the credit to, it's an absolutely beautiful thing that we're discussing who gets the credit for the Brewers success.

With regard to projections, am I to presume you are insinuating the name is a misnomer by putting it in quotations? People need to stop assuming that all "projections" are based on crazy, seemingly arbitrary math. There are certainly some questionable ones out there that should be more heavily scrutinized but the simplest projections (like Marcels) basically do what every fan does intuitively when trying to use stats from prior seasons to guess on future performance: I'm assuming nothing of the sort. I do respect projections, but I see them for what they are, essentially just guessing. Educated guesses, but guesses nonetheless. Frankly, there can be a underlining condescension on this board at times when opinions differ. When a statement as obvious as "you can't just look at last years standings and off-season acquisitions and call it a day", I find that to be so painfully obvious, that it comes off as a bit condescending, which I wouldn't think was the point, but all the same. Perhaps I'm being a bit sensitive, I don't know. Obviously, we shouldn't stop there, however. If we know more about a player (scouting information for a young prospect and recent injury history being the big two), we should also consider that. I'm not going to change my expectations for Gabe Kapler just because he says he has a new swing, though. Nor should you, but this goes back to an earlier disagreement we have had(and I want to be clear, I certainly didn't and wasn't referring to you in that previous paragraph). I don't think that fans should allow any of those extenuating circumstances to impact our predictions, or our opinions of how a players going to perform because honestly, most aren't qualified to. But in the case of Kapler, when you argued that Melvin shouldn't have gone after him, citing his projections, I argued then and I'm arguing now that can remove almost all of the human element out of it. Players would get signed then accordingly based on who's projects to be the best. There has to be room in predictions for projections, as well as opinions that may not yet be substantiated by statistical data. That's essentially what scouting is, is it not? At least at the high school level, you can't possible use their stats given the wide range of competition to evaluate a player. My overall point is that saying the Mariners in this instance are just not a good team, and can't win that division unless the stars align for them because of their projections and last years run differential leaves out an enormous part of the equation. It's simply not that simple, otherwise Marcel would likely be far more accurate on a year to year basis than it is. As a result, we should be very suspicious of any projection that uses Seattle's 2007 record as a jump off point. I guess I'm using the fact that they were a good team last year as a way to defend my argument that I believe they'll be a good team this year. Teams with good pitching, defense, and BP's are more likely to maintain a poor run differential and still win games. I believe to a degree that is what Seattle did last year, and they've since added a true ace, and they've got a number of players who are either primed to make an impact(Morrow, Clement, O'Flahtery, Feierabend) as well as a couple huge pickups(Bedard, Silva) and players who are in line for bounce back years(Sexon namely) and then some young players who may improve upon past performance. I just take issue with the suggestion that I'm not a "sophisticated" enough fan to look beyond last years records and the fact that they picked up a good player. It's the suggestion that I just don't get it rather than I just don't agree with it...

Yea, but if they send him down at any point in the season, he's then offered back, correct? That's what I was referring to in my post when TwoLiveBrew asked about the 25 man, I believe he was asking about the Padres.

I don't know why you think that. He got a couple interviews I believe with the Pirates and many thought he would get that job. Simply because teams are too stupid to hire Jack Z doesn't mean that he's not a great exec. There's a reason h won Executive of the Year for Baseball America. You can't diminish what he's done. Really, they've worked great together, and push comes to shove, I'd take Jack Z over Melvin because I believe that he's better at scouting, but I think both are great, and love the current set up the most.

Well, we'll see. It's possible that I'm wrong as there is a first for everything, but I have to think that rather than nibble and throw off-speed, especially when they're behind in the count, pitchers are going to look ahead at that lineup with Prince/Braun and Hart coming up and challenge Cameron a bit more rather than risk putting him on in front of those guys. I guess I just look at what Gross/Hardy and Braun all did hitting in front of Prince last year, and feel that Cameron is that tier of player who truly benefits from protection.

I'm a little surprised. I thought you were on the side that thought the Mets were the clear cut NL favorites. I agree though. I think that Perez needs to have some tempered expectations based on his up and down career thus far. I'm not convinced that Maine can be a number 2, and I certainly don't think Pedro is at this point. Perez is truly the key in my opinion. Everything else falls into line if he can prove that last years resurrection was legit and not a fluke, but if he's a 5-6 ERA pitcher that staff's in real trouble. Then they're a staff with an ace, and then a lot of backend type guys. Of course, I probably don't have the proper amount of respect for Maine, but that's one of those "stats be damned, I just don't like him" pitchers. This is also why looking ahead I see them being the eventual destination for one Jeff Suppan. It's working against us that this upcoming FA class as it stands now is the strongest that I can ever remember, but I think that they're going to desire a stabilizing force in that rotation after Johan with Perez and Pedro possibly gone.

Yes, that was the reason. I'll note that Prince was obviously cheaper than the 2.6 Lyle was scheduled to make in 2006. We were already spending way more money than we were used to and Prince for Lyle saved 2.3 million. But I retract my statement. I was wrong. I see what you're saying, and I believe that Overbay did make over 2 million that following season(not sure why he only made 1.3 last year, but that is what Baseballreference.com has), but I don't believe that had nearly as much to do with it as just allowing Prince a full-time spot. By the way, anyone else remember the debates over whether we should trade Prince and keep Overbay? I'm certainly glad that we ended up the way we are. Injury plagued maybe, but he still had over 400 atbats and produced .240/.315/.391 over not exactly a small sample size. No, but I don't believe that you can take one season at age 30 and say that he's diminishing because of it. I think there were extenuating circumstances behind it. I think that this year will be very telling with Overbay in terms of what type of career he's going to have. No, not in terms of producing, just in terms of talent alone, I'm saying the first two years, Toronto won the deal in terms of what the pure talent was able to produce, make sense? Frankly, not really. You're saying not in terms of producing, just in terms of what that talent was able to produce. I think I'd also throw in the caveat that we pretty much had to trade Overbay despite the talk from Melvin about keeping both players, because we had Prince waiting. If you're forced to trade a guy, for instance like we did with Lee, your return isn't going to be as great, so then it's a matter of what type of return did the manager get as opposed to what was expected. I think Melvin did alright in that trade.

You're right. It is probably unlikely, I was just refuting the point that was made saying that Gwynn had never had a good season.

1. No that's not a good line. His OBP is BA driven and he still can't slug .400. It really is. A .300/.360 line form Gwynn would be more than fine. I simply don't understand how you can argue that's not a good line. Add that to the fact that that's the highest BA he's ever had and also the highest BABIP he's ever had (.362) it leads me to believe that that was more of a fluke than anything. Saying it's not a good line, and arguing he'll duplicate that again are two entirely different things. Yeah I realize that's Gross' line. You realize that's way better than anything Gwynn has ever done, right? Oh yeah, Gross can actually draw walks, too. Yes, I realize in his 200 AB's, that's better than Gwynn has done. However when you start out asking at what point does Gross and his offensive edge overcome Gwynn's defensive edge, that's the point I was refering to.

I would hardly call a .300/.360/.396 line good. Although for him it would be. That's the problem, in order to be a valuable offensive player he's going to need to bat about .320 or .330. You would hardly call a .300/.360 line while playing very good defense in CF good? Huh. I guess we have a fundamental difference of opinion. You need him to post a .330/.400 line before you think he should play over Gross because Gross hits the occasional HR? You do realize that Gross has a career line of .245/.343/.410, right?

You don't think that maybe having Prince behind Cameron is going to result in better pitches to hit? I certainly do.

It certainly wasn't his 06 AAA season. And this team has plenty of offense to get through 25 games with Gwynn in CF, especially with a newfound focus on defense, and Ryan Braun in LF. And as little as ST'ing means, Gwynn's played very well while Gross has struggled. And before anyone starts telling me that ST doesn't mean anything, I'm simply saying he's performed well.

Well if you want to use wins, Bush also would have had 15 or 16 had the BP not blown 3 or 4 of HIS games. So that doesn't really strengthen your argument either.

Seriously, the Phillies? What is there to like about the Phils past Hamels, who by the way hasn't exactly been the picture of health thus far. That rotation is ugly. And I don't agree with your assessment of the Brewers rotation in the least, but I don't see that changing.

You'd take Hill before you'd take Sheets and Gallardo? All I have to say to that is...."wow". And as far as Suppan, I see a lot more people saying this year that they "just never thought much of him". I don't know how you couldn't have when he had a four season run in which he averaged about 14 wins a year with ERA's from 3.57 to 4.19. He was a pretty good pitcher.

I think he's done a fine job. Nothing extraordinary, but I think he's done a decent job with it. Suppan, Villanueva, Gross, Bush, Turnbow, Gange....he's brought in guys who won't be our core guys in most cases, but will be vital to winning. It's really a very difficult question to answer because as I said, seldom does a small market team have a lot of core pieces brought in from outside unless they get lucky in a trade like the Indians did with the Colon deal, or the Twins did with the Liriano deal. Our closest one was the Villanueva deal, or the Sexon deal,but even that was only marginal talent.

Gross isn't a CF'er, and our emphasis is suppose to be on defense this year. Man, I know that it can get old arguing at times that Gwynn ISN'T a sure fire HOF'er, but to say that he sucks as this point in time is overstated. 200 Big league At-Bat's. Let's relax before we say the kid can't play at all.

Nobody's being "generous" by calling him a very good defensive Centerfielder. Gwynn absolutely is a very good defensive OF'er. Second, he's "never done anything in the minors to suggest he's due for a huge improvement"? .300/.360 in AAA as a 23 year old. That's "something". And nobody said he was good because of his dad. Not in this instance they didn't, that's a shot that was locked and loaded no matter what was said. That was an aside to the conversation, and afterthought, and frankly, I didn't take it as though he was being serious. I've argued against those who think he should be a starter right now, but it's equally absurd to label him as simply an extra OF'er for his entire career. He's shown signs of improvement, and if he can post anything like what he did in AAA in 06 at 23 years old, he'll be a very serviceable CF'er in the big leagues.

Well then I don't think a reasonable argument could be made that the draft isn't the biggest factor in our success, or impending success. I think without the trades and FA signings, we're still likely a very solid team, but in any case of a small market team that succeeds, those avenues have to supplement the talent more than produce the base of it if they hope to remain successful for years to come, and I don't think that's any different here.

I don't understand what you're saying here. Overbay made 446,000 in his last year in Milwaukee and 1.3 million last year, so I don't think the move had anything whatsoever do to with money, rather we wanted to open up a spot for Prince. I'd also argue that we definitely did not get "hosed" in talent. Overbay is a very average offensive 1st basemen, and defense isn't a very big factor there. But it's how you word it that has me alittle confused. "in terms of talent, we were obviously hosed for two years now that Overbay is diminishing"? I don't understand what you mean by that. Overbay was awful last year, but he had one poor year in an injury plagued season, so I don't think that he's diminishing. I think he had a single bad year. But it almost sounds like you're saying "based on Overbay's two years out of Milwaukee, he outproduced what we got in return for him", something I'd strenuously argue. Maybe though I'm not reading this correctly.

You simply can't give ALL of the credit to Jack Z and none of it to Melvin. Melvin has always had a large hand in building the farm system in Milwaukee just as he did in Texas when they developed one of the top systems. To just say that every player we've developed should be almost held against Melvin...I don't agree with that at all.

Oh, no, I heard all of those things myself. I guess though before I call the guy an idiot for not being able to make his pitch, I'd want to hear a little bit more. I need more to go off of than just not being a great pitcher despite great ability before I essentially, like I said, call the guy an idiot. I don't recall the game plan comments though. I have a feeling those are a little bit extra. I'm sure Maddux may have said something like "he has to follow the gameplan", but I don't recall him complaining about him not doing so. Sometimes pitchers can just not have a great deal of success when their 23 without having a "50 cent head", or having a mental makeup "for the birds". I just think those are awfully strong words for walking people.

Well, he's caught just 66 games the last 3 years, so I think he needs to prove he can catch everyday before we say that he's anywhere near worth Hart or Sheets. He's been primarily a DH the last couple years. It's funny how much people can question players who actually do catch everyday, but a guy who hasn't even caught on a regular basis because the teams worried that he can't handle it physically gets a pass. I think he's a very good player as well, but again, he had Tommy John surgery and he hasn't caught on a regular basis again since. Again, I don't believe he's worth anywhere near a Corey Hart, whatever the Rangers may ask for.

The Brewers went on a run last year when Yost made the switch. Maybe a "run" isn't the right way to put it, but they broke out a little bit after when Yost made the switch. Gross got white hot hitting in front of Prince. Not to mention, things didn't work great last year, we only won 83 games. And second, the numbers of Braun and Prince will be important, however the overall production is more important, and I think that Cameron is going to benefit greatly hitting in front of Prince as he's a very good fastball hitter, and he'll see a lot in the 2 hole.

I sincerely doubt that Gabe Kapler or Tony Gwynn Jr will ever start a game for Braun this year, and I doubt Braun, if healthy is out of the lineup for more than 3 or 4 games at most.