Thurston Fluff

Hopefully this criticism will go away when he gets a legitimate shot at facing them. While I think there is room for improvement I also think he can improve. Hard to get better at something you rarely get to work on.

They were the second best hitting club in the NL so assuming a normalish hitting distribution they should have been close to the top in run scoring as well. Fair assumption. I do think they played above their heads last season but perhaps it wasn't as far as I made it seem. While they might not be as bad as they seem this season I think their true ability lies somewhere in the middle. No home run power, no speed but they can get on base and hit doubles at a decent rate. What they do have is great pitching. That is what makes me the most nervous. Their offense just doesn't scare me but their pitching does.

If they had hit the same all the time instead of really well with RISP they would have still been amongst the leaders in runs scored in the NL last year. How do you know that? Is there something I missed that shows that?

In 2012 the hit 271/338/421 and 264/353/422 w/risp. 2011 they hit 274/341/425 overall and 290/378/454 w/risp. 2010 263/332/402 overall and 290/363/426 w/risp. I can go on but I think you get the point. I don't know what you call a statistical anomaly that does not repeat itself other than luck. But,for the sake of argument, lets assume it was something other than luck. Why should we assume last season is the true Cards offense and all the rest of the seasons are the outliers? Whatever they had going for them last season w/risp it didn't happen before nor does it seem like it is this season. Shouldn't that tell us more about who they really are more than the one outlier season? Whether you consider what they did last season luck or some ability they cannot repeat it boils down to the same thing. This is more likely who they are w/risp compared to their overall hitting than what they did last season.

Yes they got a little lucky on offense last year but they also scored a lot more runs than the next best team. Even if they were not lucky with RISP last year they would have likely still led the league in runs scored. I think more than a little lucky. They batted 330/402/463 with runners in scoring position last season. Now compare that to their overall numbers of 269/332/401 and you get 61/44/62 points above their overall numbers. For comparisons sake the next closest team to that was the Tigers who batted 282/362/444 with runners in scoring position compared to their overall 283/346/434. Looking at that, all things being equal, I'd say the Tigers would be far more likely to get similar results to what they did last season than the Cards are. And they are 276/328/441 overall vs 272/331/420 w/risp. This season the Cards are a lot closer to their overall numbers with runners in scoring position 251/319/366 overall vs 248/332/347 w/risp. Now lets look at Milwaukee last year. 252/311/398 overall vs 255/313/406 w/risp. One would think that differential is more sustainable year to year. And it is. 257/316/413 overall compared to 269/343/422 w/risp. While there is a difference it is nowhere near what the Cards enjoyed last season. I just feel this is more indicative of what their offense is than what they were last season.

As for recent Brewers teams, I don't know, that seems pretty recent to me. That was also just one year. But if you're talking about recent teams and their history, then why would you ask why I think the Cards are more talented? WS team vs a team that went on a nice run at the end of the year so they finished with more than 70 wins. I can see what you mean by recent but when I look at where that team was at compared to now it seems like an eternity. Just an opinion. I think the Cardinals are a more talented team than the Brewers. Especially when healthy. I think they're substantially better suited for a playoff series as well. I think the Cards played a little above their heads last season. Especially on offense where their batting with runners in scoring position was out of whack with their overall batting average. Take that away last season and they look a lot like they do this season. No power and little speed to help manufacture runs. Something I think is a bad combination. I tend to think their huge bump in batting with runners in scoring position had a lot to do with luck. So maybe I just look at what their offense is doing now as more of what they really are. Overall they are a good solid team with great starting pitching, a good bullpen but an offense that has little speed and not a lot of power who suddenly stopped hitting above their norms with runners in scoring position. Then I look at what our team is doing and I see as many playing slightly below expectations as above them. Which makes me think maybe we sometimes sell our team short. While some of what is going in is luck a lot more is just a very good team. It would take a hell of a lot of bad luck for us to really tank IMHO. Now that I say that watch them lose 10 in a row.

jjfanec I agree those moves turned out well. I am just saying it's such a crap shoot with relievers I have hard time giving credit when it works or blame when it fails. One year Axeford and K-rod are the best setup closer combo the next both blew chunks. That type of thing happens all the time on multiple teams. I do like the way Melvin goes usually goes about it though. I like his approach of having one or two veterans who have a decent enough history to think you will get at least average production and then adding a bunch of guys to see who sticks. Seems to me the best way to approach such a volatile area.

They were up 9 games on the Cubs this time of year in 2007 and ended up winning 83 games and losing the division by 2 games. How many on this team was even on the roster back then? I was referring to the recent Brewers teams. And while we've done some of those things before(once recently) the Card are more talented, and routinely have done it. What makes you think the Cards are more talented this year?

So, you think in the time it takes your neurons to fire and make your legs push off either towards the bag or towards home plate, you can tell if a ball is going to 1-hop the 3B or be caught 6" off the ground? Considering a hitter can analyze the way a ball is thrown and it's rotation then react to it almost instantly I think that same person can manage to figure out the ball's trajectory fairly quickly as well.

I'm not going so far as to say it's over but this is a little far the other way. What about this team makes you suspect that? Their past? Never happened to them before. Lack of knowing what it takes to win a division? Done that before. Sure things happen but that level of pessimism always seemed to me to miss joy of the ride waiting for the crash.

Things that just dont ring true to me? 1. They have been lucky this year. Injuries to their closer and a very versatile relief man. Ramirez missed significant time forcing the team to start Reynolds at 3rd and Overbay at 1st. Braun has missed time but not a ton. Also guys hitting as well as you would expect and pitching well is not luck. It is a well put together team. Every team has injuries. The rate we have suffered this season isn't bad at all. Especially if you compare them to the Cards or Reds. That said, the relative lack of injuries compared to us helped both those teams last season so I'm not apologizing for our relative health this season. 3. The bullpen being fantastic and the rotation being solid is a credit to Melvin. He traded for Smith, resigned KRod, signed Lohse and Garza. Totally not selling those deals short but bullpens are such a crap shoot it's hard for me to give too much credit since I never gave him much blame when they sucked. I will say I like Melvin's approach to filling out a bullpen. I have always been a Melvin fan. I am not trying to bash him. Just like to be consistent with the times I defended him saying those things were either out of his control (injuries) or a notoriously volatile area for every team (bullpens.)

It worries them alright. But the pitiful hitting is what has them in panic mode. Swapping hitters back and forth from the AAA team trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Multiple lineup experiments, the latest had Holliday moved from his usual #3 to #2 yesterday. A good idea since he's on a pace to hit 14 HR's this year. (he went O'fer) The pressure from the fans and media, not to mention Matheny's fear of being fired will force some sort of significant aquisition before the trade deadline. No free agent is safe! (you guys got any?) What happened to the offense? Is it just a matter of bad luck, age, injury or did they have a lot of good luck in the past and it is evening out? I looked back at past team stats and a main difference I see is they are not hitting as well with runners in scoring position. Considering they hit much better with runners in scoring position than they did overall I think perhaps they just had a bit more luck last season. I could see that make the offense look better than it really is.

The Brewers haven't gained any ground on St. Louis in the past month and a half. If I were St. Louis that would worry me more than it does us. They have played pretty well and gained zero ground.

As I pointed out in the game thread....that's somewhat deceptive because he gets the platoon advantage of being hid from his weakness. 87% of his PA's are against righties. He only has 31 PA's against lefties. I'm not making the argument that Scooter isn't valuable, just that the numbers that he puts up don't paint an entirely accurate picture of his abilities. Considering the majority of pitchers are right handed I think that is less of a problem. A problem for sure but even if he totally sucks against them it won't affect his stats as much as if it were reversed.

That wasn't my point at all. My point is that we could have avoided the situation by just going one reliever down rather than risking his health. Which would probably have been a better option. Probably would have been. My guess is they never thought about it or they might have tried. Considering the ump was really looking for a way to get him more pitches he probably would have accommodated him. Of course there probably would have been some sort of discipline for all involved, maybe even the ump, for doing so. I seriously doubt Atlanta would have taken that sitting down. Garcia probably would have protested the game with some legitimacy.

Fear of the beer. They hate us most when we are ahead of them in the standings.

So if Will Smith, when he had to go in to a game cold earlier this season, had gone up to the homeplate umpire and made some comment about his mother and purposely gotten himself tossed, they could have just put in Duke with as much time to warm up as needed? Probably so. What's your point? Because a once in a lifetime situation that had to be played according to the rules every pitcher who comes in after one of their guys gets kicked out has to risk injury?

I also want to add that I was surprised that the new pitcher gets unlimited warm ups when there is an ejection. I guess I never realized this. Seems like a dumb rule. If you are going to purposely throw at someone and not be prepared with a relief pitcher, then you should not have the luxury of unlimited warm ups. It's an injury prevention thing. I get what you are saying but penalizing a reliever who didn't do anything wrong by jeopardizing his career is probably not the right way to go about punishing the team. It didn't take long for LaRussa to class things up in AZ did it? Last night's game was the perfect comparison of the old baseball ways to the new. The Brewers are brash and a bit flamboyant but don't get caught up in thinf that don't matter to winning. The D-backs are the old school of revenge and tit for tat. I think the new way keeps the focus on the right thing, winning, better than the old school does.

Well said Chorizo. I would add that the way Puig jump started LA last season might have something to do with overblown expectations of what a rookie can do for a team. As far as comparing our rookies with others we should be able to have a discussion without someone getting hammered for focusing on current performance. There is room to discuss both how they are doing now and how they project to do over time. Especially when the now is so important to our team and as Chorizo pointed out, those less talented rookies sometimes turn into all star type players later.

The cardinals are on a roll and will soon roll us into 2nd place. Just like the last time they got on a roll?

Very sad day. He was always one of my favorite players. Chewing tobacco is one tradition in baseball that needs to go away.

A 4.56 era isn't what I would call having success. Lately marco has been what most would call terrible. The book seems to be out on marco. Don't swing at the changeup, wait for the meatball, and drive it. It took the league 4 years to figure him out? Did they figure him out the first part of last season and then lose the book on him? Isn't it more likely he is just going through a rough patch and will end up being who he always was?

Just a variation on the standard "prospects fail" argument... fear of the unknown. Yes, saying a rookie is bound to have some struggles in his first year in the bigs is the exact as saying prospects fail. Please. The Brewers won't find themselves in this position very often. The postseason is there to be had. Which is exactly why I am more comfortable with Estrada doing what he has done in the past than thinking a rookie is going to be better over the rest of the season. Even though I think that rookie is going to be far superior in a fairly short period of time, that time is not now. Nelson isn't going to suddenly lose 5-6 miles and sink on his fastball and leave straight pitches over the middle of the plate. He's their number one prospect for a reason, and he's had plenty of innings in the minor leagues. He's not going to dominate major league hitters like he is the guys in AAA but he's going to give them a good chance to win when he's on. Who said anything about losing velocity or anything of the sort? I'm talking about a young pitcher who has a total of 26 starts in AAA maybe having something to learn at that level yet and maybe, just maybe, not being a better option over the course of this season than someone who has already done it. Granted I also tend to think people are getting carried away with Estrada's bad start. I guess I just look at how last season began and ended with him and don't see a need to panic. I'm really excited about Nelson and think he has a bright future. He is a top prospect 100 for a reason. But lets be a little realistic here. According to BA he is a slightly lower prospect than Odorizzi. Why should anyone think Nelson won't have the same type of struggles somewhere along the line as Odorizzi is now? BTW guess who had more than 26 AAA starts and more major league exposure and is still having his share of problems working his way out of a slump. I'm sure both will be fine over the course of their careers. But when did Nelson suddenly become the next can't miss, will never struggle, phenom in baseball? All I'm saying is maybe it's time to take a step back realize he is still a young pitcher that most likely will struggle at times in his first year up. Why do that now when we have someone who is as, or more likely to put it together in a shorter period of time than Nelson will when he does struggle?

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

Every pitcher has rough patches. Nelson is bound to as well. I'd like to see how he responds to that before deeming him ready. The worst thing that could happen is to have him come up, get into a rut, and find out he isn't ready to figure out how to get out of it at this level yet. I know Estrada has bounced back before so I have faith he will again. I think he's been around long enough he deserves at least a half season to get things turned around.