mrn1ceguy

It would make trading him a lot more difficult. It's possible he would tell Stearns that he's fine with a trade to the Dodgers or some other team, but unless he expressly gives Stearns the go-ahead, there is no reason Stearns should pursue a trade of a player with full no trade rights. Additionally, any team trading for Braun would be most interested in this year. Every year older he gets makes him a little less valuable, and the final years of the contract are likely to be his worst years. Therefore, the longer you wait, the less you'll get in return, and I don't think the return would be huge right now without us eating a bunch of money. There are plenty of formerly great players who are a shadow of their former selves by the time their contract runs out. I hope Braun will still be decent by the time his contract is over, but he very likely won't be nearly as good as he is right now. Finally, if we are looking at potentially trading him in the future vs today, every day he plays there is a chance of injury. There is no reason to take that risk if the goal is to trade him. Basically, if you are looking to trade him, you do it before opening day. Otherwise, I'll assume he's going to be a Brewer for life. While I agree with you in principal, all Braun has to do is to keep performing to change that. Every day he keeps performing well and is healthy, the track record of performance grows longer and the money committed to him goes down. I look at what Carlos Beltran was able to be traded for with lat year with an expiring contract. If Braun performs productively and with good health into the 2018 trade deadline or through the 2018 season, I think he would give us a better return then what we could get know. But, those are very big ifs.

I'm just going on memory, but I can't think of a season we didn't have three catchers on the 40 man roster. As of late, the third was often a career minor league player but we always had someone who could be brought up in case of injury. 2015 was the last time the brewers carried three catchers on the 40-man roster for the entire season (jonathan lucroy, martin maldonado and juan centeno). the brewers opened the 2013, 2014 and 2016 seasons with only two catchers on their 40-man roster (lucroy and maldonado). there may have been other instances in recent years where a catcher (i.e. wil nieves in 2011) was outrighted or traded and replaced on the 40-man by another catcher (george kottaras), which led to a wider roster of rotating catchers on the 40-man. Well, I guess that shows how well my memory is. Thanks for the info!

I'm just going on memory, but I can't think of a season we didn't have three catchers on the 40 man roster. As of late, the third was often a career minor league player but we always had someone who could be brought up in case of injury.

This thread popping back up has me wondering if the PTBNL was ever announced (or did we just take the $100)? I can't remember and a quick scan through the thread didn't show anything.

My main concern is the people who would accept those 5/15, 6/18 contracts are your scooters and peraltas. People who project to be your 7th or 8th best positional player or your 4th or 5th starter. Those players you should be churning through and use them for 2-3 years at nominal salaries (500k - 1.5m) and then move on by cut or trade. Anyone with real potential for being someone you want as a cornerstone/8 year player would command a much higher contract (like seguras 5/40 with 1.5 years experience) or would need to be signed with large uncertainty (like Arcia now). Using Arica as an example, to buyout FA years, you are looking at a 6-7 year contract. Assuming he took a 6 year, 20 million contract (which I doubt), you could potentially hit the lottery or be stuck with an expensive untradeable/uncutable defensive replacement. And I think arcia is the most sure bet extension candidate on the roster. I would personally rather see him perform for 1-1.5 years with at least an above average/top 15 level of play and then give him a slightly larger contract instead of paying a smaller but still sizeable long term guaranteed contract now and then be wishing we could replace him for Dubon, Diaz or someone else in two years. Basically, I value roster flexibility for non cornerstone players (not your top four positon players, top three starting pitchers and maybe your closer) more than getting a true lucroy style contract knowing the risk of being stuck with non-starting quality players on 5-7 year guaranteed contracts.

I agree. I guess I don't see anyone taking a 5/15 or similar "low" contract unless they are expected to be a role player (part time catcher like susac, non-closer relief pitcher, super sub like perez). If we can get some people like Broxton, Santana, Villar, Arcia to take the 5/15, 4/15 then I would be all for it. I just think the only "early" contracts that would be accepted by anyone who looks to be at a talent that will stick will require the 5/40 type contracts.

That's assuming they play up to their potential. If they don't, they now have a guaranteed contract that's harder to send down, cut or trade. If the only benefit is a couple cheap years at the risk of having wasted money (and I'm not thinking the 5 year 15 million contract we would give someone like Susac but more the 5 year 40 million contract Segura was rumored to have been offered), that's a big risk at year 1. Using segura for example, if we gave him the 5 year 40 million contract, we wouldn't have been able to trade him the way we did. However if segura was awesome for two more years, we could have got him on something like 5 year 60 million buying out two years of FA. I'm much more open to doing extensions after two good years once the risk of "flash in the pan" has been lowered (unless you have Braun's minor league/1st year pedigree).

My concern with everyone projected to be on the 25 man roster, even if they all perform greatly, there is no guarantee they will be our first choice to be the starting player at their position in 3-6 years. As good as broxton could be, Brinson could be better. As good as Villar could be at 2nd, Diaz could be better. As good Arcia could be, Dubon or Lara could be better. As good as Davis could be, he may not be one of the 5 best starting pitchers in the rotation. There is too much uncertainty on roster management down the road to predict who will be here during these players FA years, let alone last couple arbitration years. The only value in these would be to get these players cheaper than what they could be so as to increase their trade value rather then to lock them into the roster for the next 3-6 years. Any extensions should be to a 10 year cornerstone player, not just the best player on the team. For example, a future Braun or Sheets (injury not withstanding) are good ideas but a future Weeks or Hart is not a good idea (replaceable player if you have a good farm system). If Arcia or Brinson or Hader or Erceg prove their worth in the next year or two, then they could be extended if no one in the minors looks to be an improvement a few years down the road. Otherwise, play them for 3-5 years and then replace with the next prospect in the pipeline.

I think the thought with Scooter is that the dodgers need someone who is at least competent at 2B and is cheap. While scooter would likely be one of the weaker players in the dodgers lineup, anyone cheaper would be a decent step down. So he doesn't have much value but it's possible the dodgers would value him just enough to include him as a throw in to make our offer slightly better.

With no one of note ready to play 3B in AAA and it seems he's only looking for a deal that puts him on the 40-man roster, it may be a good cheap option similar to Aoki (backup mlb 3B or AAA 3B). This would serve as a backup plan in case Shaw falls apart or he surprises and tears it up. Also wouldn't be stealing reps at AAA this year from anyone. Lastly, if he makes the mlb roster, he would be able to leverage Thames to help with the transition.

I guess (I still think a trade with the dodgers will happen for either De Leon, Bellinger, Buehler, or Alvarez), but even without we just have a place holder pitcher (best of Lopez, Nelson, Peralta, Jungman, Anderson, Garza) in there for 2018 with the others in the minors ready to step up. It's not as good of a rotation but still potentially strong enough to be competitive and upgrades the outfield with Braun playing with the two best of Santana/Broxton/Phillips/Brinson.

No it's not. Unless you can convince me they will somehow have a rotation that can compete in 1 or 2 years. Thames is a place holder, because Mark A does not want to see a 50 win season. He wants to field a team that can at least be decent, and whether I agree with that or not, I get why he feels that way. I don't believe Thames will be a part of the next truly competitive team, so yea I'm open to flipping him for the right prospect/s. He's also holding up a potential logjam in the OF, where ideally Braun or Santana move to 1B within the next couple years. How about this rotation: Guerra, Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Jose De Leon (assuming a braun trade*) with Lopez/Nelson/Peralta/Jungman as possible breakout candidates (or re-breakout) in case any of the above fail. Also Ortiz, Diplan, Ponce, Bickford, D. Williams, F. Peralta will be waiting in AA/AAA to replace a struggling starter. For completeness, because I assume Braun is traded, we would still have an OF of Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Phillips, Cordell and maybe Puig. I would take the above rotation, a starting 8 of Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Shaw, Arcia, Villar, Thames, Susac and bullpen pieces of Knebel, Burnes, Peralta, Nelson as a competitive team that's fighting for a wildcard with reinforcements coming in 2019/2020 to push for division contention. *I'm assuming a Braun for Puig/McCarthy/De Leon/low level prospect trade.

I would say that none of the reclamation projects last year panned out, so the trade market looked for the proven relievers (chapman, miller, even Will Smith and Jeffress). If the reclamation projects worked, then their might have been the mid-range trades of good single prospects for good one year wonder relievers. I would also say that last years reliever market trade was a bubble that's unlikely to repeat itself where top relievers can get 2+ elite prospects, so overall the quality of prospects should be limited. For example if we were trading away our prospects, we would be giving up a Woodruff or Devin Williams instead of the Ortiz and/or Bickford(+). But I have a lot of conjecture in this post so who knows.

How often does a non-elite reliever get flipped for a strong return right after signing a FA contract, though? Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculously low ERA in the first half last year, and that netted Chris Paddack a month before the deadline, who might develop into a #3/#4 if he develops a breaking ball at some point, and if he can stay healthy. He's a nice prospect but just had TJ surgery - strong return? Maybe? On the other hand, if you look at the returns for Tyler Clippard, Jason Grilli, Brad Ziegler, Joe Smith, or Zach Duke around the deadline last year, they range from middling to meh. So if the Reds' plan is to spend $2-3 million on Storen and best-case end up with a Chris Paddack, why not just call up teams and start offering them $2-3 million for a Chris Paddack-type prospect? Cut out the middle man and give someone you want to keep around a chance. Not saying it's a bad move to sign Storen, it's not, but the Reds should be hoping for long-term value from Storen, not a scratch-off ticket. It's not that you are trading 2-3 million for a prospect. You are risking 2-3 million to create a valuable commodity that will be highly sought after at a time where that commodity is not available for just money (the trade deadline). Any number of playoff contenders could have signed Storen right now for that price, but would rather have someone else take the risk and then if it works out and if the contending team needs another BP arm, overpay with a prospect to get the player. In theory it should cost them more later but it allows them to make sure the BP arm they are trading for is being productive this season and also to see if maybe they have a good enough BP and don't need one. This way the contending team can sign their version of storen now and if he fails, trade for the successful version of storen later or do none of it if their storen is successful. Also, based on the weird AZ to ATL trade of Toussaint, it took a $10 million dead contract to get him, so straight up 2-3 million now doesn't get you reputable or high upside prospects. If you want those prospects, you have to roll the dice on these reclamation projects and hope they work out.

Yeah, re-reading it I probably overshot on pitching. But if things work as as planned/hoped (Brinson meets expectations, Thames gamble works out, Broxton is for real and Braun keep on keepin ons) most everyone projected is where they've been or where they should be. This does assume no one tanks/falls off - hence the optimistic projections. But even with a heavily pulled back rotation projection (bump hader to 4.00 ERA and replace Ortiz with a journey man Anderson at 4.5), this still could be a wildcard roster.

I agree and I personally think it will be regardless of how the Cubs/Cards/Pirates do, at least in terms of being Wild Card contenders. If things go well (not even great), we could have the following lineup and starting rotation by mid 2018 (note I just took a stab in the dark for realistic / mildy optimistic stats). 1B: Thames (.275/.350/.475) 2B: Villar (.280/.360/.450) SS: Arcia (.260/.320/.430) 3B: Shaw (.260/.310/.440) LF: Braun (.300/.360/.500) CF: Brinson (.290/.330/.480) RF: Broxton (.260/.340/.430) C: Susac (.270/.330/.460) - chose his 2014 stats as his optimistic/realistic option Guerra (3.00 ERA / 1.15 WHIP) Davies (3.60 ERA / 1.25 WHIP) Hader (3.00 ERA / 1.20 WHIP) Ortiz (3.25 ERA / 1.30 WHIP) Peralta (4.00 ERA / 1.40 WHIP) That's a pretty potent/solid lineup with good defense all around. If we put together a good bullpen/bench with the remaining parts, I'd like to believe that could be an upper 80s win team vying for a playoff spot. Especially if someone has a breakout year. This also leaves the minors ripe with possible replacements/upgrades like Phillips, Bickford, Woodruff, Dubon, Lopez, and Cory Ray with Isan Diaz, Ecreg, Ponce, Diplan and more just a year away.

This is pretty much where I'm at. Also, throw in Guerra for DeLeon or Alvarez to get some new high ceiling pitching and make it a monster trade.

What about Tyrone Taylor? I think he would be easier to stick than Coulter on someone's roster as all glove CF / last man on the bench spot. I don't envy Stearns. I personally want to add 8 or 9 people, but without doing quick trades now, that's probably not realistic. Funny, we will cram the 40-man full now but theoretically could open 5 or more spots by trades in Winter meeting / early december (any of Braun, Garza, Anderson, Guerra, Gennett, Carter, Maldenado, Thornburg, Torres, Nieuwenhuis)

Any more easy cuts they can make in order to maxmize the number of adds before/during the rule 5 draft? Maybe Scahill?

I don't see getting Casey Gillaspie as a win now move. Considering he is 23 and has no major league experience, he's a prospect on the cusp of beginning his major league career. I don't know much about him as a prospect/player, but if he is someone Stearn likes, he's a perfect candidate to get (i.e. Villar last year). Become a solid contributor at 1B for the next ~6 years, possibly break out and be a star, or settle in as a cheap solid contributor until we are ready to move him or replace him. We could also stick him in the minors for another year as he has only been in AAA for half a season and bring him up mid-season or next year with our first big wave of prospects. Now what would it take to get him? No idea but if all we have to give up is a Cy Sneed equivalent (Yamamoto), fallen prospect (Coulter/Taylor) or a redundant major league piece (Torres/Anderson), I'm all for that.

One thing to consider for Garza (and others) is this years FA class of starting pitching is very small. That could drive the price up beyond actual value (like the trade deadline surge for elite closers). If that happens, it might be a sell high for players like Garza, Guera, and Anderson. If that offset market happens, I say trade as many as you can and fix the rotation later as these players shouldn't figure in to our long term plans and any gains over a half season of good play may not offset a surge in value due to scarcity.

Just to highlight a small section. While I don't expect them to trade players to give Suter a spot, I do expect the Brewers to trade at least two of their 7 starting pitchers (Nelson, Davies, Peralta, Guerra, Anderson, Garza, Jungmann). The starting pitching FA market is so poor this spring that our mid to back rotation arms like Garza and Anderson or promising mid to top rotation arms like Nelson of Guerra will probably be very attractive (compared to their "worth"). I would be kind of surprised if at least two starting pitchers aren't moved based on the likely value we will get. It will be a strike while the iron's hot scenario similar to our trading Smith and Jeffress at the deadline.

Greenleaf1, your thoughts are pretty similar to mine. Assuming we trade both those starting pitchers (or really any two), I would still imagine Jungmann, a prospect like Hader or a bounce back candidate from outside gets the starting spot over Suter with Suter is in the pen. But maybe Suter blows people away in his next start and over the winter/spring. Also maybe Susac starting over Pina and a different bench player than Pinto (Orf?). I'd also find a way to protect Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter so someone doesn't Wei-Chung Wang us. Otherwise, pretty much what I was thinking.

Broxton should be given the CF to start 2017 (assuming there are no lingering affects from the broken wrist). If Brinson continues to soar through winter and the start of next year, he'll be promoted and likely force Broxton & Santana to fight over RF (assuming Braun is here). Then by 2018 if Braun is still here, Phillips and/or Cordell should be ready to go. That will probably push one of the previous 5 players (Broxton, Santan, Braun, Phillips, Cordell) to 1B , two get to fight over the corner OF spots and the rest are traded/benched/flamed out. Ray and Clark (and maybe Harrison & Demi) are reinforcements for 2019 and beyond in case of injury/regression/bust otherwise they can be traded away for other players/prospects. In short, once Brinson is ready (and assuming he meets his projections), I imagine he will have the CF position for at least the next 5 years, if not 8-10 and everyone else fights over the corner OF positions, 1B or are traded.

My thoughts on those two are not because I think they are core players that must be maintained. It's more about their unique situations. Jorge Lopez is about the only prospect currently on our 40 man roster who wasn't a regular on the 25. We are not likely going to be trading prospects for veterans and considering Lopez had a bad year, it's unlikely we would sell low on him in a prospect for prospect trade. That's why I don't think he's going anywhere. For Susac, he's arguably the best catcher on our roster with the most control (5 years control) versus Maldanado's 2 years. Pina has 6 but I don't think he is as good of a player as Susac. That being said, Susac will probably be an average starting catcher at best. Because of that and the cost of trying to get a new catcher if we moved Susac, I find it highly unlikely he's traded this winter. Give it two years and we could easily be moving him to upgrade the position, but right now I don't see any reason to move him or a scenario where we get an offer we can't refuse.