mrn1ceguy

I'd personally rather go for the bigger prospect grab and get Ellsbury instead of Gardner and another top Yankee prospect (Abreu has been mentioned elsewhere). I think the drop off in production from Ellsbury to Gardner is not so big compared to the much bigger prospects we would get (even if the Yankees throw in money on the deal). You have Ellsbury as the 4th OF behind Braun, Brinson and Phillips (with Santana traded elsewhere). Keep Perez as the 5th OF and sign a AAAA OF to a minor league deal in case one of Brinson/Phillips flops and Ellsbury can't be used for more than a start or two a week. Use Santana for either pitching (Salazar) or stud prospect (Meija) and I'd be happy with this turn of events.

I put this in the “buzz” thread, but figured it’s best here. So in a flurry of activity starting with some trades, the first FA signing would be darvish, and the rest turns out like this (more of a prayer than a prediction). FA: Sign Darvish to a 5 year deal (110M?) Sign Oh to a 1 year/ 4M Sign Walker to a 2 year / 22M Trade NYY: Trade Broxton and filler for Ellsbury, 30M, and good prospects (Abreu & Dillion Tate) CLE: Trade Santana for Meija, Yu-Cheng Chang CHW: Trade Thames, Ortiz, Stokes, Supak for Jose Abreu ??: Villar & Aguilar for low level prospects (think Lind trade) New lineup C: Pina 1B: Abreu 2B: Walker SS: Arcia 3B: Shaw LF: Braun CF: Brinson RF: Phillips Bench: Ellsbury, Vogt, Perez, Sogard SP: Darvish, Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Woodruff (+ Nelson) RP: Knebel, Hader, Oh, Logan, Barnes, Jeffress, Guerra, Suter (+ Williams, Houser in AAA)

How about this for a series of moves. FA: Sign Darvish to a 5 year deal (110M?) Sign Oh to a 1 year/ 4M Sign Walker to a 2 year / 22M Trade NYY: Trade Broxton and filler for Ellsbury, 30M, and good prospects (Abreu & Dillion Tate) CLE: Trade Santana for Meija, Yu-Cheng Chang CHW: Trade Thames, Ortiz, Stokes, Supak for Jose Abreu ??: Villar & Aguilar for low level prospects (think Lind trade) New lineup C: Pina 1B: Abreu 2B: Walker SS: Arcia 3B: Shaw LF: Braun CF: Brinson RF: Phillips Bench: Ellsbury, Vogt, Perez, Sogard SP: Darvish, Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Woodruff (+ Nelson) RP: Knebel, Hader, Oh, Logan, Barnes, Jeffress, Guerra, Suter (+ Williams, Houser in AAA) I think this would be a consider a good flurry of activity.

He would actually be the 6th catcher on the 40 (Pina, Vogt, Bandy, Susac, Nottingham).

Well, if they want to target Travis Shaw, they do have the ammo to trade for him. If they were to offer a stupid trade like Mackenzie Gore and a couple more of their top 50 or top 100 prospects, it would be hard to say no. Everyone is always available, but not usually at a price other teams would be willing to pay.

Not just the future, but I would put it at 50/50 that trading Brinson & Woodruff (alone) for Duffy & Merrifield could even make the 2018 roster worse (or its at least close enough to give pause). Not to mention the prospects, the loss of draft pick for having to sign Cain and what not. Too look at it another way: -Duffy vs Woodruff - edge to Duffy but honestly, it may be really close if Woodruff lives up to the potential he has shown. -Merrifield vs Villar/Sogard/Perez/Walker - I would call this a draw between regression from Merrifield & Sogard, bounce back by Villar or signing Walker. -Cain vs Brinson/Phillips - definite edge to Cain for next year offensively but a likely edge to Brinson/Phillips defensively. Additionally Brinson & Phillips have the potential to outplay Cain offensively in 2018 if they live up to their potential they have shown. And this doesn't take into account age regression by Cain which is definitely possible. Additionally, every KC option costs more $$, costs more prospects, and costs draft picks. You are at best looking for a slight upgrade in 2018 with likely major steps back in 2019 and beyond. And that's the best case scenario.

I agree the piggyback arrangement is unlikely to work unless you build your entire staff around these guys (aka, get 10 pitchers who go 4ip and then sprinkle in an ace and/or a couple closers). Based on our available talent pool right now, I think we will go heavy on good long relievers instead of your usually 3-4 middle relievers who can only go 1 inning a day. Something like the following to start the year: Starters: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Hader Long Relievers (should always be used in 2-3 inning spurts): Guerra, Suter, Gallardo Closer: Knebel Setup: Jeffress, Barnes, Williams (Ideally add a FA as your 8th inning guy and go 8-man bullpen) The extra long relievers allow us to have multiple multi-inning pitchers to cover early season short starts from Woodruff/Hader or a bad day from a starter. Basically, if it's not the 7th or not a close game, a LR is getting the ball so we don't overburden our back-end relievers. I also fully expect around the AS break for Nelson, Burnes or someone to be ready to start, allowing Hader to move into the bullpen after about 120 innings as a starter letting him finish the year pitching and still get to ~150 innings.

If/Until we sign another pitcher, this is how I'd like things to shake out. Start of the year SP1: Anderson SP2: Davies SP3: Chacin SP4: Woodruff SP5: Hader SP Insurance: Wilkerson, Jungmann (if he clears waiver), Long Relievers from below Closer: Knebel 7th/8th: Jeffress, Barnes, FA Long Relief: Guerra, Suter, Gallardo Other RP: Williams AAA Insurance: Houser, Derby, anyone else on the 40 The extra long relievers allow us to have multiple multi-inning pitchers to cover early season short starts from Woodruff/Hader. Shortly after the All-Star Break SP1: Anderson SP2: Davies SP3: Chacin SP4: Woodruff SP5: Burnes/Nelson SP Insurance: Wilkerson, Ortiz, Nelson/Burnes Closer: Knebel 7th/8th: FA, Hader, Williams Long Relief: 1 of Guerra, Suter, Gallardo Other RP: Jeffress, Barnes, Houser AAA Insurance: F. Peralta, Derby, anyone else on the 40

I would do it the other way around. Let him start until the All Star break, giving him that ~100 innings. Then, about the time either Neslon is ready to come back or Burnes/Ortiz is ready for a promotion, move Hader to the pen to get him the last 50 innings and bolster the pen for a possible playoff push. If at some point he shows he can't be a starter, then we could move him to the pen earlier and call it a day. But if he does succeed, then you have the best possible starters throughout the year (Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Gallardo/Wilkerson/Suter/Guerra/??? until the AS break and then Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Nelson, Burnes/Ortiz to close) while getting a midseason boost to the pen. That also then sets up Hader to be a near full-time starter for 2019 assuming he has earned it.

Williams should be in the pen. He is one of the best 25 players in the organization. I hate it when a team plays the option game for another year of control. Sign him pre-arby and control him for as long as the contract. He could be an impact arm this year, plus he needs to get MLB innings. In general, I agree he should be in the pen. However, if Williams is in AAA (or AA) this season, I don't think its about another year of control but more to control his increase of innings with maybe a eye towards starting. He was out of baseball for two years and had a very manicured 50 innings last year. If they want to heavily control his inning increase, the minors is the place to be. If they see him as a future RP who can handle <70 innings with typical usage right now, then I expect to see him on the 25 man roster.

I would absolutely offer Feliz a minor league deal for <$1M with an invite to camp. If he's great, he makes the team. If he's ok, maybe he makes the end of the bullpen. If he bombs, he goes to AAA or is released. This is the same deal for Villar. His salary is <$1M ~$3M (more than I thought but still inexpensive). He will be at camp to earn a place on the team. If he's great, he will be the starting 2B. If he's ok, maybe he makes the bench while Sogard/Perez/FA signing starts. If he bombs, he's traded, released or DFA.

The reason to wait is basically the number of starting pitcher candidates their will likely be for 2019. As the roster currently stands, we will have to decide between Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Ortiz and Fredy Peralta with fringe players like Suter, Guerra, Jungmann, Wilkerson, Bubba Derby and Jon Perrin available. Add in the wave of AA pitchers like Ponce and Yamamoto who could breakout early and we have a lot of pitching talent coming up in 2019/2020. That is a lot of people to sort through with a realistic chance five of those players will be better than year 2 version of whichever FA starter we get (Arrieta likely included, but probably the best of the bunch). My preference is to sign someone who would be a 1 year deal or maybe a 2 year deal where we could cut/trade them in 2019 based on their performance.

That is a fantastic resource, thanks for sharing. I thought next year would have a slightly difficult roster crunch but holy crap. At a quick glance, the following people are Rule 5 eligible after the 2018 season. Jake Gatewood Isan Diaz Monte Harrison Troy Stokes Jr. Luis Ortiz Bubba Derby Jon Perrin Cody Pence Phil Bickford Jordan Yamamoto Kodi Medeiros Trey Supak Josh Pennington Nathan Kirby That likely at least 8-10 must adds. Not too mention lesser prospects like Gilbert Lara and Nate Griep as well as rule 5 eligible players this year who may still be around and perforing (Tyrone Taylor, Johnny Davis, Kyle Wren, Clint Coulter, Devin Williams, Daniel Missaki, Tristan Archer). Either we are going to have a nearly all rookie bullpen & bench next year or we will need to move a couple of these names by next year.

What about something like Broxton for Samardzija and a top 10 prospect (like Aramis Garcia). It accomplishes the Giants contract dump while giving them a good OF to go with. This would be similar to the Segura deal just at a smaller scale.

The Matt Garza contract was a bad deal before the ink dried. For every Fiers that comes up and is successful, there are 10 guys like Burgos or Espino that get shelled immediately and sent back to AAA. Our goal shouldn't be to put a guy with a probable high 4s or worse era into the rotation and say "well at least we saved money". We have enough talent that we shouldn't be planning to put guys that have no business being anything but the #7-8 starter into the rotation to open the year. Those guys likely see a handful of starts at some point due to injury, but ideally we aren't counting on them. I'm not advocating to go spend on a free agent SP, I actually really don't like the free agent class. I'd prefer to target someone in trade. The answer definitely cannot consist of anybody in that group opening the season in the rotation barring at least 1-2 injuries. I would think at least one (Woodruff) should be considered and expected to start the season. Add him to Anderson, Davies and Hader, you only have one more spot to fill and the rest of that list are the injury replacements we think they should be (along with Guerra, Wilkerson, ...). Now, considering there is a high likelihood we will want to clear two starring spots in the rotation mid-season for Burnes and Nelson, it may not be a bad idea to let that group of #7/#8 battle camp to see if someone can earn that #5 spot. If we can trade for a starter who we expect to be better than Davies and here for at least 3 years, by all means get them. But if not, I'd rather start the year a little weak at SP knowing their are midseason replacements then sign someone for 3-4 years and have to deal with starting a known week SP in 2020/2021 because they are our new Garza. Note, I'm strongly assuming Hader will be given at least a half season as a starter and Nelson will be available sometime in 2018 (late July?). If not, this is all moot and we need to get someone else.

It wasn't me but I saw that as more that even if we were to lose 10 more games, he would still see the season as a success if Arcia, Phillips, Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Burnes have great years. And overall, I would agree because that means we now have a stud/GG shortstop, top tier RF and CF players and a #1 (Hader), #2 (Burnes), #3 (Woodruff) pitchers. That would be an amazing core to build around and what would have likely happened to get there is the surprises from 2016 (Villar, Broxton) didn't recover, a couple surprises from last year (Shaw, Anderson, Thames, Knebel, Pina) didn't repeat, and maybe a mainstay or two (Braun, Santana) faltered. Now, if we went exactly 76-86 and we got good to great production from the young guns mentioned, that could mean all that happen was we had a bullpen implosion and 2-3 blackholes in the lineup with and half failed starter. So I'm going to project Braun getting injured, Villar/2B and Thames playing poorly, whoever the 5th starter that gets replaced by Burnes (Suter?) and all FA bullpen pieces failing. Maybe sprinkle in some early season struggles by the young guys who eventually recover. So that still leaves us with a good Shaw, Santana, Pina, Knebel, Davies/Anderson and a returning Nelson to go along with Arcia, Phillips, Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and Burnes. While the record is disappointing, I would still consider this a successful year because the future is very bright with young strong talent everywhere and only holes at 1B, 2B and bullpen for 2019 (in my imaginary projection).

I believe yes to all three. The one's without an option who we may prefer in AAA are Guerra and Jungmann.

We have one too many people between Perez, Villar, Sogard, Aguilar and Broxton (or anyone they would be backing up like Braun/Santana/Phillips/...). Based on who is moved, you could end up with the follwoing 12-man position player setups. If Broxton is traded & 4 man bench, you have: C: Pina, Vogt/Bandy 1B: Thames, Aguilar 2B: Villar, Sogard SS: Arcia, Sogard 3B: Shaw, Perez OF: Braun, Santana, Phillips, Perez If Villar is traded & 4 man bench, you have: C: Pina, Vogt/Bandy 1B: Thames, Aguilar 2B: Perez, Sogard SS: Arcia, Sogard 3B: Shaw, Perez OF: Braun, Santana, Phillips, Broxton If Aguilar is traded (and Braun learns 1B) & 4 man bench, you have: C: Pina, Vogt/Bandy 1B: Thames, Braun 2B: Villar, Sogard SS: Arcia, Sogard 3B: Shaw, Perez OF: Braun, Santana, Phillips, Broxton If Perez is traded & 4 man bench, you have: C: Pina, Vogt/Bandy 1B: Thames, Aguilar 2B: Villar, Sogard SS: Arcia, Sogard 3B: Shaw, Sogard OF: Braun, Santana, Phillips, Broxton If a starter is traded (let's go with Santana) & 4 man bench, you have: C: Pina, Vogt/Bandy 1B: Thames/Aguilar 2B: Villar/Sogard SS: Arcia/Sogard 3B: Shaw/Perez OF: Braun, Broxton, Phillips, Perez And in every scenario above, Broxton could be traded as well to make room for Brinson but I think that's less likely during the off season. Also, if someone else is signed to play 2B, then a trade of Villar or Perez in addition to any other trade would be needed at that point.

I don't think many people believe Orf could play SS passably and that is the main reason Sogard was chosen (IMO). He can back-up both SS and 2B (possibly starting 2B if Villar/whoever falls). This allows Perez to be primary 3B and OF backup and extra SS/2B backup (assuming trade of Broxton, Phillips starting CF). Rest of the bench is now Aguilar for 1B/PH and backup Catcher (assuming 4-man bench). If we did Orf, Perez becomes the only SS backup and likely primary backup at 2B/3B/SS/OF with Aguilar for 1B and backup catcher. I don't see Orf being a primary backup anywhere so now he becomes a PH that would likely be used after Perez/Aguilar. Could Orf do primary backup at 2B/3B/OF? Maybe, but based on his low scouting/prospect pedigree, I wouldn't expect Stearns/Counsell to go with that plan to start the year. He will have to get luckily and earn it by injury replacement or poor performance. As for Dubon, I don't think he is ready for mlb competition to start 2018. He had less than a half season at AAA and was only ok (AAA OPS of 739, AA OPS of 689). I could see Dubon looked as the primary IF backup (or possible starter) in 2019 if he does well in 2018, but I expect next year to be a full or near full AAA season.

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not. Scooter made $2.5M last year and will make much more than that in 2018. MLBTradeRumors projects him at $6.1M. Ya, I'll willing to bet 2017 was a career year for Sogard but it was for Scooter too. Sogard not only doesn't suck defensively but he can also play other positions. If Sogard could not play SS and was stuck at 2B, this would be a terrible contract. Considering he can play SS at least halfway decent, I'm perfectly happy with this contract based on last years production. Could it be a waste and he hits <700 OPS letting to get let go before the end of the year, possibly. But overall we got a good defensive player with experience, can PH and potentially play starting quality SS/2b as needed. Sounds good to me.

I can't see why the brewers would do this to trade him. They are getting closer and closer to being a contender so there is no sense in trading one of their top 2 starters who is in a team friendly deal for 4 seasons. Especially with Nelson missing "significant time" this season, he will be looked at to lead the pitching staff not be trade bait. If (big IF) Nelson comes back strong, Hader turns into a TOR starter, Burnes looks like a #2, Woodruff puts up solid #3 type numbers, Davies remains a solid #3, Oritz/Peralta/Wilkerson/Supak/... continue strong milb performances in 2018, I would happily trade Chase in 2019. Heck, I'd be happy to trade Chase for an awesome package if only three of those five players I mentioned look good and the minor league players look ready. Likewise, if we get offered some awesome prospects for Chase (better than the Quintana deal) at the 2018 trade deadline (if we are out of it) or in 2019 offseason regardless of how the rest of the team is doing, I would happily trade Chase. Also, if our team falls apart in 2018, prospects start to look like busts and we need to re-rebuild (or re-tool) for 2021, trading Chase could get us several people to make us better for 2021/2022/2023/2024/... That being said, none of this is now and I would think it terrible to trade a player the same offseason as getting an extension no matter the offer (bad precedent if nothing else), but I expect these discussions to occur in 2018/2019 if any of the above happens.

I'm thinking this offseason would be better taken in the "One step back, two steps forward." I just expect a lot of regression from this year (especially considering Nelson's absence) so might as well try to really augment the organizational roster at hopefully not to big of a hit to the mlb roster. Note all my actions assumes we can't trade Braun for anything more than a salary dump. If we can move Braun, I would keep Santana and move him to LF. Trade Away: -Chase Anderson for a haul because I think he's bound to regress. Haul should be a top starting prospect who was in AA or AAA in 2017, one or two top-100 (or near) prospect, a couple lottery prospects. -Santana for a haul because he could regress some and the drop-off to Phillips when accounting for defense may not be much. This haul would involve a top bat prospect who was in AA in 2017, a top ten organizational prospect and a couple lottery prospects. -Thames for a good package because I think he's at peak value. This would be a near top-100 prospect and a mlb useful piece (backup catcher, 8th inning reliever, ...) -Broxton for a solid package because I think Brinson will be an upgrade making him expendable. This should be a near top-100 prospect or a mlb useful piece. -Jungman, Guerra, Vogt, Hughes for small pieces. These will be change of scenery type trades, ideally for players with options or someone who can fit in the bullpen. Acquire: -sign someone who can play 2B to a 1-3 year deal (i.e. Walker, Brandon Phillips, Jed Lawrie, Zack Cozart) -sign/acquire two 8th relief pitcher (i.e. Swarzak, Neshak or someone from the trades above) -sign/acquire bench bat (i.e. a new Aguilar, maybe even a platoon mate for him) -sign AAA rebound starting pitcher to protect for rookie flameout -sign AAA rebound SS in case Dubon isn't ready to be first call-up in case of IF injury Predicted Roster: 1B - Aguilar / platoon half* 2B - Z. Cozart SS - Arcia 3B - Shaw LF - Braun CF - Brinson RF - Phillips C - Pina Bench 1 - Perez Bench 2 - Villar Bench 3 - Bandy Bench 4 - Bench Bat/Kyle Wren *Aguilar's platoon half could be the Bench Bat or Shaw (and someone like Villar/Perez could be the other half of 3B). SP1 - Davies SP2 - Woodruff SP3 - Hader* SP4 - Suter** SP5 - Wilkerson** Closer - Knebel 8th/7th - Swarzak, Neshak MR - Jeffress, Barnes, Taylor Williams Lefty - WCW / scrap heap player Long Relief - Angel Ventura / scrap heap player / someone not traded away *When Nelson gets back, move Hader to pen to ensure he doesn't get shutdown in August. **After Super-2, bring up Burnes and/or the newly acquired top starting prospect (assuming they are deserving) and move Suter/Wilkerson to Long Relief or AAA as appropriate Top prospects ready for 2018/2019: -Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, top starting prospect, Ponce, Derby, Bickford, Hauser -Dubon, top bat prospect, Erceg, Gatewood, Harrison, Diaz, Clark, Ray Doing the above allows for the team to open up spots for prospects (Brinson, Phillips, Hader, Burnes, ...) while letting those who took step forward (Arcia, Shaw, Aguilar, Pina, Knebel, Davies) to continue to shine. Also, by doing the step back (mainly in the rotation), the reinforcements ready for 2018/2019 is huge allowing us to quickly move on from any failed players, trade prospects to fill gaps, or trade high on mlb players to free spots for top prospects.

I would say 150-160 is about right. If we are in it and have the depth, I would have him start until the all-star break (100ish innings) then switch him to the bullpen role he has now and let Nelson/Burnes/Ortiz/whoever is ready step into his role. If we are out of it, have him start until you shut him down in late August (160ish). If we don't have the depth, start him until the end of july (120), trade for a starter and then bullpen him with lighter use. All in all, it's manageable to get him to 150-160 innings while keeping him useful throughout 2018.

If we sweep the cubs, we would be even so we would just have to do better than they are. So if we also win our other series (go 6-3), the cubs would have to go 5-4 for the Brewers to win the division outright. Brewers at 89-73 to the cubs at 88-74. If we only take 3/4 and win our other series (6-3) and end up at 88-74, now the cubs going 5-4 would be a division tie with a play-in game. Or did I do the math wrong? Overall, that's still asking us to go 10-3 and the cubs to go 5-8 (or 9-4, 5-8 for a tie), but you have to win to get in.

Any report on if the reduced staffing impacted anything (long lines, slow to park, ...)?